Space Markets--Earth Transport
For military applications of Earth Transport, see the Military page.
Fast Package Delivery
CSTS, section section 3.5.3, page 165 says the
following.
The market for aircraft-based
express delivery services continues to grow. In addition to the
obvious (e.g. delivering an expensive part to a distant factory) this
is also done for more mundane reasons (paying extra money for air
freight to save on warehouse space, e.g. footwear and shirts are
significant customers). Some possible markets for fast package
delivery include precious stones and human organs (but the latter has
sticky issues of ethics and disease; see CSTS,
section 3.5.3.3.2, page 168-169). There are various regulatory issues (customs,
liability, air traffic control, etc.). At a cost of $20,000/kg the
CSTS (section 3.5.3.3.3, page 174) isn't sure whether there is any demand;
at a cost of $2000/kg
they predict about 100,000-300,000 kg of business per year; at a cost
of $200/kg they predict roughly 2 to 20 million kg of business per
year. This analysis does not consider competition from supersonic
(Mach 2-3) aircraft like the Concorde. The service could be charter
flights (currently 10% of aircraft-based express delivery) or
scheduled service (based on the express delivery experience this seems
to require a critical mass of routes served). High schedule
reliability (on the order of 99.999% according to the CSTS,
section 3.5.3.5.1, page 176) is
required, and implies reliable vehicles, spare vehicles, ability to
quickly move a payload to a spare vehicle, etc. Noise at airports and
along flight paths a big issue. More information about noise.
Ultra High Speed Civil Transport
That is, taking passengers
between points on earth. The main issues: (1) reliability, (2) noise, (3) competition from ordinary supersonic
aircraft (Mach 2-4) keeping in mind the time spent getting to the
airport, boarding, etc., (4) Acceleration. To improve travel times
much, a faster transport would need higher accelerations than existing
aircraft (about 0.5g or more for minutes at a time; data from
CSTS,
section 3.5.7, pages 230-235).
For reference, roller coaster and simulator rides
routinely go over 3 g's, and at times go from +3g's to -2g's in a
matter of seconds (source: usenet post by Chuck Lauer). I haven't seen any serious attempt to figure out how
acceleration would affect customer interest (for example, based on how
many people might consider riding a roller coaster, or whatever might
be relevant).
This page is part of Jim
Kingdon's space markets page.