It appears to me that this will be far worse than is currently envisioned by the mainstream financial press.
Of note, the 2nd story uses the “d word”, Depression.
Worries rise as fund crashes
Bear Stearns pledges $3.2 billion to shore up mortgage investments.
By E. Scott Reckard and Kathy M. Kristof
Times Staff Writers
June 23, 2007
Anxiety intensified Friday about the toll the sub-prime mortgage meltdown is taking on the financial industry at large, as Bear Stearns Cos. pledged to lend $3.2 billion to rescue a hedge fund battered by rising defaults on home loans. The jitters sent stocks tumbling across the board.
“We know that these holdings are not unique to Bear Stearns,” said Drexel University professor Joseph R. Mason, co-author of a recent study warning of dangers in securities backed by home loans to high-risk borrowers. “It would be hard to find a Wall Street firm that hasn’t created similar funds.”
The hedge fund, which is managed by a Bear Stearns division, had taken in nearly $7 billion — $600 million raised from investors plus 10 times that sum borrowed from Wall Street firms. Such a great amount of leverage would sharply boost any profit generated — as well as any loss incurred. The fund invested mostly in bonds that paid generous yields and were backed by sub-prime mortgages.
But as the nation’s housing market soured, setting off a wave of defaults on sub-prime loans, the securities held by the fund lost substantial value, although exactly how much hasn’t been disclosed. The borrowing by the fund magnified the losses.
…
And then we have this from one of the most respected financial bodies in the world.
BIS warns of Great Depression dangers from credit spree
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 9:02am BST 25/06/2007
The Bank for International Settlements, the world’s most prestigious financial body, has warned that years of loose monetary policy has fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy more vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump than generally understood.
“Virtually nobody foresaw the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the crises which affected Japan and Southeast Asia in the early and late 1990s. In fact, each downturn was preceded by a period of non-inflationary growth exuberant enough to lead many commentators to suggest that a ‘new era’ had arrived”, said the bank.
The BIS, the ultimate bank of central bankers, pointed to a confluence a worrying signs, citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system.
“Behind each set of concerns lurks the common factor of highly accommodating financial conditions. Tail events affecting the global economy might at some point have much higher costs than is commonly supposed,” it said.
The BIS said China may have repeated the disastrous errors made by Japan in the 1980s when Tokyo let rip with excess liquidity.
“The Chinese economy seems to be demonstrating very similar, disquieting symptoms,” it said, citing ballooning credit, an asset boom, and “massive investments” in heavy industry.
Some 40pc of China’s state-owned enterprises are loss-making, exposing the banking system to likely stress in a downturn.
It said China’s growth was “unstable, unbalance, uncoordinated and unsustainable”, borrowing a line from Chinese premier Wen Jiabao
In a thinly-veiled rebuke to the US Federal Reserve, the BIS said central banks were starting to doubt the wisdom of letting asset bubbles build up on the assumption that they could safely be “cleaned up” afterwards – which was more or less the strategy pursued by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan after the dotcom bust.
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The bank said it was far from clear whether the US would be able to shrug off the consequences of its latest imbalances, citing a current account deficit running at 6.5pc of GDP, a rise in US external liabilities by over $4 trillion from 2001 to 2005, and an unprecedented drop in the savings rate. “The dollar clearly remains vulnerable to a sudden loss of private sector confidence,” it said.
