Strategic Vision Polled voters on a number of issues, including Iraq, and the results are interestting, particularly question 4.

4. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)
Yes 51%
No 39%
Undecided 10%

Given those numbers, and given the number of candidates who are running, the highest in the polls gets barely 30%, the first credible^* Republican candidate to call for a pullout wins Iraw.

^*Credible means not a racist libertarian nutjob like Ron Paul.