The folks at Think Progress ask the question is the prospect of withdrawal responsible for the modest security gains in Iraq?

They quote the following from the NIE:

Gearing a Coalition withdrawal, some tribal elements and Sunni groups probably will continue to seek accommodation with the Coalition to strengthen themselves for a post- Coalition security environment…

It’s a good point.

There are a lot of people in Iraq who would be preparing for what follows, and hence not blowing up our soldiers, if they believed that our exit, or at least our withdrawal from routine security operations, were imminent.