India launches contest for 126 new fighters with RFP release

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India just released it’s request for proposal for 126 fighters to replace part of it’s aging MiG-21 fleet.

A list of likely bidders are, with what I see as pros and cons are below, with my guesses as to the outcome after that:

  • Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Horne
    • Pros:
      • Interoperability with Western weapons
      • Good payload/range (Probably best of the lot)
      • Highly capable radar/avionics. (maybe the best of the lot)
    • Cons
      • Relatively low agility (probably worst of the lot)
      • Expensive.
      • Largest plane in competition.
      • Subject to US sanctions.
  • Dassault Rafale
    • Pros
      • Interoperability with Western weapons Highly capable radar/avionics. Might be adapted to use Indian Kaveri engine. Dassault already has aircraft in the Indian fleet (Mirage 2000s) Cons Would be 1st foreign adopter of system, may cause support issues.
      • Somewhat expensive.
  • Eurofighter Typhoon
    • Pros
      • Interoperability with Western weapons
      • Good payload/range
      • Highly capable radar/avionics.
      • Very high performance (supercruise at Mach 1.4+ in air to air configuration)
    • Cons
      • Air to ground capabilities still in development.
      • Expensive.
  • Lockheed Martin F-16
    • Pros:
      • Interoperability with Western weapons
      • Good payload/range
      • Capable radar/avionics.
      • Good agility.
      • Lower lifetime costs (because it is single engined).
    • Cons
      • Expensive.
      • Subject to US sanctions.
  • RSK MiG-35
    • Pros:
      • Interoperability with Russian weapons, which they already have in service.
      • Operations and maintenance should be most similar to those of the MiG-21s being replaced.
      • This is a member of the MiG-29 family, which the Indians already have in service.
      • Probably the lowest purchase price of any of the competitors.
    • Cons
      • Avionics are likely the least capable of the lot.
      • Payload/range is likely 2nd least of the lot.
  • Saab Gripen.
    • Pros:
      • Interoperability with Western weapons
      • Highly capable radar/avionics.
      • Lowest life cycle costs (based on the fact that it is the smallest and lightest of the lot.
      • Superb short/rough runway performance.
      • Might be adapted to use Indian Kaveri engine.
    • Cons
      • Probably the least payload/range (but more than the MiG-21)
      • Somewhat subject to US sanctions.

First, note that this will not be India’stop of the line fighter. That will be the SU-27 family variants that it is already flying, or has already bought, so absolute top end performance is not crucial.

India, by virtue of it’s non-aligned status, has a highly heterogeneous air fleet, which makes for a complex supply chain and support. This would suggest that they will buy the MiG, and that’s my call at this point, though there are issues with the Russians, such as the much delayed carrier delivery, and currency issues (the Russians want to start pricing in Euros).

However, the Russians are no doubt aware of this, and might push too hard.

If you go for lowest life cycle costs, the Rafale wins, with the F-16 being close behind.

The Indians have experience with Dassault as a supplier, which might give them a leg up too.

I think that the F-18 and Typhoon are pretty much out of the running.This is a competition for a lightweight or medium fighter aircraft, and both are well above this weight class.

Comments? Thoughts? Aspersions to my heritage?

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