It turns out that a few months agoForeign Minister Tzipi Livni said that Iranian nuclear weapons do not pose an existential threat to Israel. The article also reports that former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy has similar views.

This is no surprise. Given that any Iranian action would inevitably result in a devastating Israeli counterstrike, some of which would be submarine bases, and hence secure from a first strike, we would be at mutually assured destruction, which worked between the US and the USSR for years.

Additionally, considering the Iranians as Persian, rather than Arab, it would be unusual to expect them to take actions that would result in the destruction of their culture in order to benefit an what is largely an Arab agenda.

There is also an insight into Israeli politics, specifically how Kadima would look to hold onto power with Ariel Sharon:

Livni also criticized the exaggerated use that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is making of the issue of the Iranian bomb, claiming that he is attempting to rally the public around him by playing on its most basic fears.

I would be very surprised if Kadima were above 3rd place in votes next elections, and I would not be surprised if the losses were stunning. It really is Ariel Sharon’s vanity party, and he is now gone.