Dr. Roubini reminisces aboutr how he was thought a lunatic in his latest blog post. A governor of the Chilean central bank commented “Usually at this kind of meetings I used to hear that the views of Nouriel Roubini about an impending financial and real hard landing are from the Moon. But this year there are plenty of “lunatics” around!“

Just so you know, these were the good doctors predictions form a year ago:

• The U.S. would experience its worst housing recession in decades;
• home prices would follow sharply (at least 20% in the next few years);
• the housing troubles would start in the sub-prime mortgage market and lead to move severe problems and a credit crunch in broader mortgage and credit markets;
• housing woes would spillover to the rest of the economy and to other components of demand – including consumption – via a variety of channels;
• multiple bearish factors (housing slump, credit crunch, spillovers of housing to other sectors, high oil prices) would lead to a hard landing of the economy in 2007;
• the world would not decouple from such a U.S. hard landing.
• Needless to say Nouriel Roubini is a f&^%ing genius, I should also note that I’ve been predicting this since 2003 on the Stellar Parthenon discussion board.

I would also note, that I have been predicting much the same since before December 2003, and additionally, I’ve been commenting on the downward pressure on the dollar, which I believe will lead to sever (double digit) inflation, though this may already have occurred, given how much the BLS and other governmental entities collude in tweaking the numbers to generate low numbers.

I can’t give an exact date and time, but I expect the dollar to weaken to more than $1.50:1.00€ before years end. 5 Years ago it was about $0.95:1.00€, and a few years befoire that, it was $0.72:1.00€.

So the dollar has fallen 50%.