Month: October 2007

September New Home Sales Up on Suspect Numbers

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I remember when this was occurring routinely with the job reports. For a while, it seemed as regular as a ticking clock, the previous numbers were revised down, and the current numbers were a big gain over the revised numbers. This slight of hand that only convinces the truly dense and economics reporters* served primarily to boost Bush’s numbers.

Well, it appears to have happened again, this time with Housing. New home sales are reported to have 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 from a revised 735,000 (it was originally 795000) in August. Very convenient how all those revisions work.

So, we were down by 25,000 from the first reported number, but it’s an increase because the number was corrected downward.

Anyone want to guess if this happens next month?

*But I’m repeating myself.

Keith Boykin Calls Out Obama

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Keith Boykin, former senior Clinton Staffer and out black man, calls it “Not A Smart Move“. I agree.

In response to his putting closeted homophobe Donnie McClurkin, Barack Obama is going to have Rev. Andy Sidden, a WHITE South Carolina pastor who is openly gay, speak at the event.

What is going on here is simple. Obama has to make a decision, and he appears to be constitutionally unable to. He could kick Donnie McClurkin off the events, and in so doing piss off the homophobic contingent (which is significant) of the black clergy in South Carolina, or he can keep him on, and enrage the gay community.

As appears typical for him, he is trying to fix this with half measures. He is unwilling to take a stand, because both choices offend people with whom he wants good relations.

This is a recurring theme with him. He is unwilling fish or cut bait. He wants to please EVERYONE. It is a sign of weakness that could hurt him in the campaign, and completely cripple him were he elected president.

He needs to show people that he can be an SOB, because that is much of the job of POTUS.

Well Knock Me Over With a Halibut, Steny Hoyer Stands Up Against Telco Immunity

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I’m pleasantly surprised, as he tends to be one of the guys who goes along, though his district is quite safe, butyesterday, he gave a very strong speech against Bush’s Telco immunity.

“Finally, this legislation is silent on the issue of retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies that possibly violated privacy laws in turning over consumer information – because Congress does not have full access to information about what the companies did.

“Simply stated, it would be grossly irresponsible for Congress to grant blanket immunity for companies without even knowing whether their conduct was legal or not. And, importantly, this view is shared by the Chairman and Ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

“Until we understand what legal authorities were used to justify the terrorist surveillance program, there does not appear to be any practicable way to include retroactive immunity in this bill.”

As always, with all Democrats, I hope that he sticks to his guns.

Mortgage Losses Worse Than Previously Believed

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It just gets better and better.

It not appears the Merrill Lynch will take losses of at least $8 billion, up $3 billion from a few weeks ago, they are predicting 2 million foreclosures, 4x the estimate of the Bush administration, and housing inventories are at their highest in 20 years.

This neglects the fact that it’s not just subprime though, so it will get worse.

This has been todays bit of sunshine.

David Frum and Facts Have Only a Passing Acquaintance

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David Frum, the Canadian former Bush speech writer whose phrase Axis of Evil is probably responsible for a thousand or so American deaths had an essay on Marketplace, yesterday, and while I expect right wingers to lie, this is the first time in my not so young (I’m 45) life that literally every word out of his mouth was not the truth.

So, I’m sending them the following letter:

Subject: Re: No defense for Europe’s protectionism

In listening to Mr. Frum’s essay on defense procurement, the F-35, and the Eurofighter, I had a unique experience. This is the first time in my life in which I have heard a commentary where I know that literally every fact stated is incorrect. I am not suggesting that there is deliberate deception involved, but the only alternative is a complete ignorance of the subject involved.

Cases in point:
* The NATO allies will soon reach a crucial decision about their next-generation air-to-ground fighter plane. Two candidates have emerged as finalists: the US-UK-Dutch-Italian-Norwegian F-35, or an update of the Franco-German “Eurofighter.”

While the F-35 is intended to a large degree, perhaps primarily, for air to ground operations, the Eurofighter Typhoon is primarily an air defense fighter, though an air-to-ground capability is being developed for the plane in later tranches.

The Eurofighter is not a Franco-German endeavor. The French are not involved at all, having built the Dassault Rafale. The partner nations are the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain. The F-35 is not a US-UK-Dutch-Italian-Norwegian project. Only the UK qualifies a very junior partner, and they have still not been given the information necessary to properly maintain the aircraft. The rest of the countries are simply customers.

* Just about everybody agrees that the F-35 is the better — and probably cheaper — plane.

When comparing the two aircraft, the Eurofighter is more agile, with a higher thrust to weight ratio and lower wing loading, and faster, it supercruises, and has a higher ceiling, much like the F-35’s big brother, the F-22, though the F-35 is stealthy, and the Eurofighter is not.

Additionally, the Typhoon can accommodate the Meteor, the long-range missile being developed in Europe, which has superior kinematics to the US AMRAAM, while the F-35, with its internal weapons stowage cannot.

Furthermore, the current prices are nearly the same, but you are comparing a design that is in production (Typhooon) with one that is still in development (F-35), and whose price is still escalating, so it to predict anything beyond parity in cost is simply wrong.

* It’s the plane that will be bought by the Israelis, who tend to be choosy about things bearing on national survival.

The Israelis will not be able to buy the Eurofighter, as political considerations of of the Typhoon’s sale to Saudi Arabia preclude this. Additionally, it will be purchased with significant US military aid, which requires that US equipment be purchased with these funds.

Additionally, the cancellation of significant defense purchases of French aircraft and British tanks in the 1960s, the Israelis do not feel that they can rely on the Europeans as a reliable source of supply.

* The Eurofighter is built on four separate assembly lines in four Western European nations. This redundancy creates more jobs, but at very high cost. High cost, in turn, reduces the number of aircraft the European allies can afford to purchase.

This applies to final assembly lines only , and it is, in fact not very costly. The evidence is in examining the F-16 program, the least expensive, and most numerious, of the previous generation of Western combat aircraft, where it has been assembled in the US, Korea, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Turkey.

I would note that given the facts to support his thesis are all wrong, his thesis itself is suspect.

As Atrios would put it, wanker of the day*.

*The “wanker” bit is not going in the letter.

Finally, Someone is Blaming Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan for the Current Economic Crisis

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This getting a bit of mainstream play, because it is on CNN:

But one observer, Tom Schlesinger, the founder and executive director of the Financial Markets Center, a think tank that has followed the Federal Reserve closely for the past decade, believes the blame for the crisis falls squarely on the Fed and accuses the central bank of “regulatory foot-dragging” that has harmed the public.

Schlesinger maintains the Fed’s prevailing regulatory philosophy has shifted from that of 20 or 25 years ago, which in essence was “here is the line between right and wrong, don’t cross it,” to a current underlying policy that “anything and everything that might be called financial innovation ought to be embraced.”

…

He points specifically to the opposition to government regulation that flourished at the U.S. central bank under former Fed chief Alan Greenspan and has continued unabated under his successor Ben Bernanke.

(Emphasis mine)

The article mentions Greenspan’s Randroid* inclinations as an aside though, when they are actually the source of the problem.

He found anything that created disasterous bubbles to be an artifact of man at his most noble.

*He was one of Ayn Rand’s inner circle and bought into her nutzo worldview.

MoDo Calls Cheney Crazy

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I think that she intends it as allegory, but I believe that Dick Cheney is actually nuts….Delusional…Batsh%$ insane. He is so confinced of his power, or more accurately the power of the US military-industrial complex, to do anything, including sewing a button on a fart.

Worked great in Iraq.

Insanity is doing something over, and over again, exactly the same way, and and expecting a different outcome.

Her essay is a good, if catty* read, and this time, for once, there is a point at the end:

As Pat Buchanan noted on “Hardball,” “Cheney and Bush are laying down markers for themselves which they’re going to have to meet. I don’t see how … Bush and Cheney can avoid attacking Iran and retaining their credibility going out of office.”

In other words, once our cowboys have talked their crazy talk, they have to walk their crazy walk.

*Like everything she writes.

So Not Shocked….ICANN is Corrupt

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It appears that someone at ICANN is feeding domain name lookups to people on the outside so that they can hold them for ransome.

If you have ever checked if a domain is available, and come back a few hours later to discover that someone has taken it, you know what I mean.

ICANN’s Security and Stability Advisory Committee is looking into suspicions that someone with access to search requests has been using this data to snap up potentially desirable domains, a process dubbed domain name front running.

Unlike traditional domain speculation, those who buy searched-for domains can be pretty sure of a potential interest when they attempt to sell their domains at a profit.

Damn straight. You already know that someone wants the domain, because they have searched for it.

Suspicions that the sharp practice is happening have not yet been proven, but are fuelled by user experiences suggesting something is amiss. Many people who check to see if a domain is available reportedly find it’s been bought by the time they return a short time later.

But the allegations are true, as anyone who has had this happen to them over, and over, and over again can attest.

If you want a domain, you need to snapit it up immediately after the search.

Snark of the Day, Budget Edition

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It should be noted that some budget budget wonks have uncovered a line item for a weapon to attack Iran.(h/t Attytood)

It’s for a modification to the B2 Stealth bomber so that it can carry the 30,000 penetrating pound bomb

Tucked inside the White House’s $196 billion emergency funding request for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is an item that has some people wondering whether the administration is preparing for military action against Iran.

The item: $88 million to modify B-2 stealth bombers so they can carry a newly developed 30,000-pound bomb called the massive ordnance penetrator, or, in military-speak, the MOP.

The MOP is the the military’s largest conventional bomb, a super “bunker-buster” capable of destroying hardened targets deep underground. The one-line explanation for the request said it is in response to “an urgent operational need from theater commanders.”

Hey, well, I’m sure the federal government has lots of uses for super “bunker-buster” bombs, such as, um, uh, na….

“You’d use it on Natanz,” said John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org. “And you’d use it on a stealth bomber because you want it to be a surprise. And you put in an emergency funding request because you want to bomb quickly.”

There is no reason to put this in an emergency request unless you have a target, and you want to hit it soon.

BTW, two snaps up to Will Bunch for this comment, “I’ve long been in the camp that the Cheney-Bush administration isn’t really as incompetent as it looks, that most of the worst stuff they do is 100 percent intentional. Putting your air-attack plans in a budget bill, however, is actually pretty incompetent. Hopefully they’ll get rid of this before Hillary can enthusiastically vote for it.“

Now I have to clean off my screen.

S-Chip is Back

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It has has been tweaked a bit, and made more restrictive.

Under the revisions, the program would exclude families earning more than three times the federal poverty rate. Low-income childless adults, which some states cover, would be phased out in one year. And states would have to be more rigorous in checking the validity of applicants’ Social Security numbers, an effort to exclude illegal immigrants.

I don’t know if it will pick up the requisite 13 votes, but if it the two “Democrats” who voted to support Bush’s veto, Gene Taylor (MS) and Jim Marshall (GA) they should be voted off the island. Any money spent on their races by the DCCC is a waste.

What’s more, there should be no more accommodations. If there is no veto override, change a comma, and come back in a month. This program has something like a 2:1 support ratio among Republithugs, so there is no need to move toward them.

Not one step back. Be the Energizer bunny, and keep going…and going… and goineg..

Nouriel Roubini is a F&^%ing Genius

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Dr. Roubini reminisces aboutr how he was thought a lunatic in his latest blog post. A governor of the Chilean central bank commented “Usually at this kind of meetings I used to hear that the views of Nouriel Roubini about an impending financial and real hard landing are from the Moon. But this year there are plenty of “lunatics” around!“

Just so you know, these were the good doctors predictions form a year ago:

  • The U.S. would experience its worst housing recession in decades;
  • home prices would follow sharply (at least 20% in the next few years);
  • the housing troubles would start in the sub-prime mortgage market and lead to move severe problems and a credit crunch in broader mortgage and credit markets;
  • housing woes would spillover to the rest of the economy and to other components of demand – including consumption – via a variety of channels;
  • multiple bearish factors (housing slump, credit crunch, spillovers of housing to other sectors, high oil prices) would lead to a hard landing of the economy in 2007;
  • the world would not decouple from such a U.S. hard landing.
  • Needless to say Nouriel Roubini is a f&^%ing genius, I should also note that I’ve been predicting this since 2003 on the Stellar Parthenon discussion board.

I would also note, that I have been predicting much the same since before December 2003, and additionally, I’ve been commenting on the downward pressure on the dollar, which I believe will lead to sever (double digit) inflation, though this may already have occurred, given how much the BLS and other governmental entities collude in tweaking the numbers to generate low numbers.

I can’t give an exact date and time, but I expect the dollar to weaken to more than $1.50:1.00€ before years end. 5 Years ago it was about $0.95:1.00€, and a few years befoire that, it was $0.72:1.00€.

So the dollar has fallen 50%.

Islamo-Fascist Awareness Week is Scam to Get Speaking Gigs

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David Whororitz admits it in an interview with the George Washington University Hatchet, the Student Newspaper.

“I’m a prominent conservative but no one is inviting me to speak at their campuses,” Horowitz said in an interview with The Hatchet. “I had to create an event.”

Ummm…No, you are an obnoxious lying fascist clown, who jumped from one extreme to the other, and have since been trying to milk that for all it’s worth.

You have less credibility as a speaker than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad*, who at least believes the crap spewing forth from his mouth.

*And DAMN you for forcing me look up his name.

Obama Clarifies, He is Against ANY Telco Immunity

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After Senator Chris Dodd announced his intention to filibuster any bill with Telco immunity, Senators Clinton and Obama announced that they support a filibuster of THE BILL that came from the Senate intelligence committee.

These are, of course, weasel words. It has to go through some more committees, Judiciary comes to mind, and it is inconceivable that it would do so without so much as a comma changed, so they were free to support the final product.

While Clinton has not clarified, Obama has now made it clear that
he will support a filibuster of ANY bill with telco immunity.

The by Bill Burton, the Obama Campaign’s spokesman:

“To be clear: Barack will support a filibuster of any bill that includes retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies.”

Biden is on board too, but Hillary is still using weasel words?