Month: December 2007

Jerome Armstrong Has the Definitive Word on Obama

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The “Blogfather” just put his finger on my problem with Obama, and I did not realize that I hadn’t gotten what was wrong already.

Once again, someone who writes better than I ever will.

Barack Obama is lacking in the most basic experience of a presidential candidate: He has never run a real campaign against a Republican.

His state senate races were in a safe Dem district, and for Senate, he ran against Alan F###ing Keyes.

All of his real political campaigns have been against Democrats, in the primaries.

….

This questionnaire in and of itself is just one thing, but Obama’s response to it coming out is unsettling in it’s pattern of positioning himself above the partisan fray. Obama has never faced a serious Republican challenge. Not one. Obama has no experience of the hostile and polarized political environment that he’d enter were he to win the nomination, and he has distanced himself from partisan Democrats during his campaign for the nomination. I don’t think it’s spin to question how Obama might actually do once he confronts Republicans on the campaign trail, instead of across the table in those bipartisan negotiations he longs for making happen.

My guess is that, once he’s personally experienced the confrontation of the Republican machine, it would totally transform the way Obama views campaigns. Rather than viewing partisan progressives as something to Sister Soulja while he appeases the non-partisan media machine, he would come to realize the value, in today’s partisan environment, of engaging partisan Democrats as part of his campaign. He’d prepare to battle with us, rather than trash us as tokens of the past.

….

For Democrats that think about how a campaign might position itself best to win, the question really comes down to this: Do you believe that this nation is going to transcend partisan politics in 2008?

(emphasis mine)

I disagree on only one point, the media machine is not non-partisan. It’s had it’s tongue up the right wing’s ass for way too long.

Hillary might win. She is the most vetted candidate in history, and she understands the war, and even savors it a bit.

Edwards would win. He has been blooded by the 2004 election, and his own contentious senate campaign.

Obama can’t win. The press loves him right now, because he sucks up to them, and the ‘Phants are keeping their powder dry. He is bringing a knife to a gun fight.

Your Update on the Economy

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Let’s see, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but the market wanted 50, so the Dow dropped 294.26 points.

The WSJ is saying that the U.S. mortgage crisis rivals the S&L meltdown.

While it’s nice that they take it seriously, the US Credit/Insolvency crisis is already worse than the S&L meltdown. Still, it’s a good read.


Own to rent cost ratio, the real estate equivalent of P/E:


The discount for the mortgage packages:

And while we are at it, how about MBIA, the world’s largest bond insurer, getting $1B infusion from private equity firm?

This is not about someone finding a deal. It’s about a private equity firm keeping MBIA alive while they offload their piece of the big sh&%pile on some other idiot.

Also, Washington Mutual is closing offices and laying off more than 3000 employees, including a friend of mine, because of mortgage and credit problems.

Also, Freddie Mac is looking at $5.5-$12 billion in additional losses. That’s in addition to the $4.5 billion that it’s already lost this year.

At the rate this is going, it will be raining Katz and Hutton on Wall Street.

Watch out for jumping finance professionals.

France May Finally Get a Foreign Sale of Its Rafale

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It looks like Libya is seriously considering the Rafale.

This is important to the French industry. The marketing of the Rafale has been abysmal. Previous French fighter aircraft, the various Mirage series aircraft, have been at the bottom of the market of their generation.

The planes have been smaller and lighter than most, if not all, its competitors (the Mirage did signifantly outperform the F-5 though).

The Rafale is a midsized aircraft, and so the nations considering it, and the capabilities that they require, are significantly different.

For this upcoming generation of aircraft, the Gripen is probably closest to staking out the role of the Mirage in the market.

A Puff Piece on The Future Combat System-Manned Ground Vehicle

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I think that Iraq has changed the way that the US Army looks at conflict. It’s obvious now that most of the obstacles that the US military will face are those in a counter-insurgency or similar non-conventional warfare.

That being the case, it is not surprising that the Army’s largest program, the Future Combat System (FCS), and in particular the Manned Ground Vehicle (FCS-MGV) is being redesigned.

That being said, the article I linked to is far more optimistic than I think is justified.

My background: I worked for three years on the Recovery and Maintenance Vehicle (FRMV), basically an armored wrecker, variant of the FCS-MGV.

As to the changes, the first is having, “the suspension and seats inside the 27-ton MGV will be suspended from the ceiling, not bolted to the floor”. I’m dubious of this.

As anyone who has tried to get out of a hammock knows, it’s not easy. It’s less easy when one is in full battle gear (one variant, the ICV will carry 9 troops in addition to crew), and I think that the whole “getting hung up on the straps” is highly problematic.

Additionally, there may be issues of motion sickness, but I don’t have the background to evaluate that.

The article also goes on at great length about how the modular armor will allow upgrades as technology develops. This is absolutely true, but this is not a new development. It was always a required part of allowing the vehicle to achieve C-130 mobility.

The active protection system does qualify as a significant improvement in survivability against some threats, long range ATGWs, long rod penetrators, and short range RPGs.

It’s cannot to provide protection against IEDs, and it’s unlikely to be able to effect explosively formed penetrators, as the reaction time is too slow. Additionally, the system relies on radars, which means that the vehicle will be an emitter on the field, which can compromise signature reduction.

The purchase of the Israeli Trophy APS should give some good indications of the actual battlefield utility of such systems.

My guess is that the systems, APS, modular armor, and (perhaps) seats are far more likely to find their way into legacy systems than it is for the FCS-MGV to see service, with the possible exception of the NLOS-C howitzer system.

Gang-Rape and Cover-Up Brought to You By Halliburton

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Let’s see, a 22 year old girl, one of their employees is gang raped bo other Halliburton employees, and Halliburton’s response is to keep her prisoner in a shipping container, and when the Army doctor turned over the rape kit, they “lost” it.

I used to wonder why Halliburton hired Dick Cheney, and continued to employ him after his disasterous decisions (he bought a company that made them liable for asbestos law suits). Now I think I know why, they simply came from the same place value wise.

Krugman on the Bush/Paulson Mortgage Rate Freeze

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Once again, he nails it. The Bush/Paulson program isnot about fixing the problem, it’s about making sure that no one else does, or as Dr. Krugman puts it:

In particular, the Paulson plan is probably an attempt to take the wind out of Barney Frank’s sails. Mr. Frank, the Democratic chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, has sponsored legislation that would give judges in bankruptcy cases the ability to rewrite mortgage loan terms. But “Bankers Hope Bush Subprime Plan Will Scuttle House Bill,” as a headline in CongressDaily put it.

As it currently stands, a bankruptcy judge cannot rewrite the terms of a mortgage, but Frank’s legislation would allow that.

He makes a compelling case that this is about protectinb banks and bond holders, so go read his OP/ED

Well, It Looks Like Pelosi and Rockefeller Will Be Needing Cells at The Hague Too

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They were briefed on the CIA’s torture program in 2002, and they did nothing.

Harman at least submitted a letter protesting.

If the Bush administration is guilty of crimes against humanity, and I believe that it is, then Pelosi and Rockefeller, along with Republican Roberts, who did nothing, and by so doing enabled it, are guilty of crimes against humanity themselves.

Bigots in California Vote to Seceed from Episcopal Church

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Please, play hardball. The national church can take the property and bank accounts, and it should.

The New York Times reposts that this appears to be the case:

The Episcopal Church has said that people can depart, but they must leave their property, which, it contends, is held in trust for the church. If the diocese sticks to its position, the church would likely vacate the diocese and reconstitute it with the congregations that choose to remain and a new bishop. The church and loyalist dioceses are already involved in several lawsuits against breakaway congregations that have insisted on keeping their property.

This is a game of chicken, and one wonders who blinks first.

My guess is that it will be the non-bigots, who are concerned about civility, as opposed to the bigots, who don’t care.

Romney Spreading “Walking Around Money” In Iowa

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It appears that he’s paying for endorsements. Thomas Edsall, Ethan Hova report that Romney is making massive payments to various Republicans as “GOTV Consulting”.

The payments start at $500 a month, the base rate for student leaders, many of whom are chairs in the “Iowa Students for Romney” campaign organization. At a higher level, Joe Earle, former director of the Iowa Christian Alliance (the successor to the Iowa Christian Coalition) gets $4,000 a month, and Gary Marx, a top-level member on the Romney for President National Faith And Values Steering Committee, gets $8,000 a month.

Well, it appears that he gets votes the old fashioned way, he buys them.

It’s surprising that Giuliani is not doing the same, he’s got an even larger war chest.

So Now the Obama Campaign is Going After Krugman

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I have to agree with Ezra Klein when he says, Something’s really gone off the rails when the Obama campaign decides to release an oppo document on Paul Krugman. (Obama doc here)

Considering that Krugman is arguably the most prominent liberal pundit in America, this is surprising. What is not surprising is that, much like he does with social security, he goes out of his way to use Republican talking points to defend his ideas and attakc other’s.

Thirdestae has a good analysis, he believes that Obama is, “attempting to appease/manipulate the class of establishment pundits, and with them the press corps as a whole”.

I agree that this is part of his strategy, but it’s also a symptom of a problem, specifically that he wants to please people too much.

Construction Loans Heading the Way of Subprime Loans

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This is not good:

Like Subprime Mortgages, Some Construction Loans Are Delinquent

Like Subprime Mortgages, Some Construction Loans Are Delinquent
By FLOYD NORRIS

BANKS across the United States, particularly the smaller ones, have become dependent on construction lending just as that area of the economy is weakening and the number of bad loans is growing.

Figures compiled by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and released last week show that both midsize and small banks had construction loans outstanding that were greater than their total capital. A decade ago, such loans were equal to only a third of capital for those banks.

For most of this decade, that was a good strategy. Construction loans proved to be very profitable, particularly for smaller banks as competition from larger banks and securities markets eroded their position in areas like mortgage lending and credit card issuance.

Now, however, more than 3 percent of all construction loans are classified as being nonperforming, or have borrowers that are behind on their payments. That is the highest proportion in a decade.

…

The smaller banks have eschewed many of the riskier practices of the larger national operations, but it looks like they are going to get bitten by the turndown too.

Edwards condemns NAFTA

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His point is not that trade deals are bad, but that bad trade deals are bad. This is how he couches his condmenation:

“NAFTA was sold to the American people with promises that it would grow the economy and create millions of new jobs. But today, we know those promises were empty,” he said in remarks prepared for delivery at a town hall forum in Derry. “In all three countries, it has hurt workers and families while helping corporate insiders.”

…….

“The folks in Washington say that trade is good for the economy, even if it hurts a few ‘losers,'” he said. “That’s the word they use, losers, and it tells you something about how they see regular American workers and families who are struggling to compete.”

This attitude on trade deals ties into an attitude of, “What’s good for Wall Street is good for the country,” which the has led to many of the problems we see now (housing crash, credit crunch, etc.)

Crap!!!! Dems to Cave AGAIN

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This is bullsh&%:

Democrats now are expected to allow Senate Republicans to attach tens of billions of dollars for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to a $500 billion-plus government-wide spending bill. That move would be in exchange for GOP support on the huge spending measure.

The war money would not be tied to troop withdrawals, as Democrats want. But it would let Democrats wrap up their long-unfinished budget work and go on vacation before Christmas. It also would spare them from criticism during the holiday recess by President Bush for leaving work without providing money for the troops.

If they want to filibuster, make them talk. No more of this courtesy of withdrawing the bill because you can’t get cloture. MAKE THEM TALK.

What’s more, make them talk on Christmas day.