Year: 2007

Israel’s Lessons Learned in Lebanon

First, we have a USAF analysis and bomb damage assesment (paid subscription required) which basically comes down to the following: Don’t let an Air Force General be the chief or your general staff, as General Dan Halutz was. The pertinent quote:

Israel broke new ground when it became the only other country besides the U.S. to conduct a sustained, round-the-clock, modern air campaign in responding to rocket and missile attacks by Hez­bollah from southern Lebanon, says Arkin. But in doing so, Israel also followed a discredited airpower model by failing to connect air and ground attacks to its overall political and military objectives and communicate what it was doing.

This basically translates to following Curtis LeMay’s strategic bombing doctrine. It is another argument against having an air force as an independent branch of the military service.

The Israeli assesment of the war (paid subscription required), is similar, though I think a more complete analysis. Some pertinent quotes:

Specifically faulted is the decision to begin operations before military objectives and political goals had been identified.

“Hezbollah is not the problem; leadership is,” says one of Israel’s renowned generals, now retired. That lack of leadership failed to improve a longtime mis-prioritization of effort, intelligence, training and decision-making that led to a muddled military campaign, he says.

Additionally, one finds problems in coordination between services:

Early in the conflict, the Israeli air force (IAF) was not in the same network as the army, according to aerospace industry officials; however, after several days of combat, that connection was made and data exchange was improved.

….

“The air force did a good job in taking out the medium- and long-range missiles,” the retired general says. “Northern Command was the problem. The air force could attack only [in short-range missile launch areas] if it got permission. Katyushas and other short-range missiles were the responsibility of the artillery and Northern Command.”

Additionally, it appears that the IDF was going through a shift similar to Rumsfeld’s transformation, with similarly dismal results.

Government officials had not anticipated a war, and Halutz (a technocrat) had been brought in to the top position to shave defense spending, streamline acquisition and change the force to a less armor-heavy mix. Air Force pilots of the rank of colonel and brigadier general, asked about the Army’s antipathy toward Halutz, say the former chief of staff would be the last to blame anyone in the army, but they agree there was a good deal of resentment from regular army commanders who saw opportunities for senior positions slipping away from them as the military changed.

Part of the lesson is a round the clock air presence above the the battle space, and part is the fact that there really was no plan on what to do if the army had to move in a full scale invasion:

If the army had been better prepared, some Israeli officials contend, a strong move toward Beirut would have pulled the Hezbollah fighters out of their bunker positions and forced the Lebanese government to get involved earlier. But with the transformation unfinished, an attack into Hezbollah’s most heavily fortified positions turned into a war of attrition and a political trap.

….

“You can only get rid of the Katyushas with a land force,” says the retired general. But by the time the ground force was heavily involved, the conflict had gone on for a month and Hezbollah was in its long-prepared positions. “The attack was strategically incorrect,” he says. “Instead of going into Hezbollah land, they should have gone to Beirut. They lost [military and political advantage] every day after the first four. You have to go for the limited war, otherwise the advantage is with the irregulars, and the focus shifts from the battlefield leaders to guys in offices.”

Basically, Israel bought into the “Networked war” model that the US has been pushing for some time, and it did not work against irregular forces (It did against Saddam’s army, then failed utterly against the insurgency).

I think that there is going to be a much greater role for armed drones in the future too:

Discussing UAV armament is taboo, but Elbit-built Hermes 450s were armed with missiles and used heavily as strike aircraft during the Lebanon fighting. Late in the war, no Hezbollah short-range missile was fired without immediate counter-fire from a UAV or manned aircraft, say a number of Israeli officials. To ensure there was always a UAV available on short notice, they were operated in stacks positioned over several parts of the battlefield. A UAV would enter the stack upon arrival, circle until needed and then return to base after completing its mission. The aircraft operated at an altitude where they could not be heard and, often, not seen. The Hermes 450s generated 16,000 flying hours, three months in a row with a 92% mission completion rate, the officials say.

…..

Despite hard flying by the UAV unit, management of the conflict limited their contribution and exposed their limitations.

….

My guess is that we will first see this in the skies above Gaza, where the opportunity for immediate response to Kassam launchers being set up will be the primary mission.

D’oh!!!!

(Forward dated a bit, so that people will see it for a while)

Well, I just finished up at my previous job. I don’t blog about my job generally, because it is just begging to be fired.

I was working on a medical device for Becton Dickenson Diagnostic Systems, in Sparks, MD. Unfortunately, the project was canceled*, and as a contractor (temp) so was I (they had planned to keep me on for a few years).

They were very humane about it. They give me 4 weeks notice, which is pretty much unheard of.

It was a great place to work. Seriously. If you need to blow a goat to get in there, break out the Chap Stick.

Jobwise, things have worked out OK. Because of the notice, I finished on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and started my new job on the Wednesday following Thanksgiving.

I would have started on Monday, but I had a medical and dental appointment on Monday, and jury duty on Tuesday.

So, I am now working about 20 miles south of Baltimore (no more detail on the blog) for a company involved in the nuclear fuel cycle. I’m involved in decommissioning and waste encapsulation.

So, I’m fat, and I’m bald (that picture is 28 years old and none of your #$@!ing business pounds ago), and I work in nuclear power.

I’m Homer Simpson.

I’ve started to grow a beard to cover up this fact.

*No details on the project…..Not sure if anything would be proprietary.

Rare Glimpse Of Russia’s Future Cruise Missile

This is the new Russian cruise missile, the Kh-101/102.
According to Aviation Week (paid subscription required) this is to have a roughly 5000km (3000 mi) range and a small radar cross section.

This compares favorably to the current Kh-55, a non stealthy design with a shorter range (2550 km) and smaller size (6m vs 8m).

On the bottom, about halfway down, appears to be a chin mounted air intake, though this might be some sort of EO sensor, as the -101 version is conventionally armed, and hence needs more precise targeting.

It can be carried internally on the Tu-160 Blackjack, and externally on the TU-95 Bear.

Pentagon Pushing Recognition of Somaliland

Some background:

Somaliland was a British colony, and handed off to Somalia, an Italian one, when they were both granted independence in 1960.

Follow the collapse of the Somali government, they declared independence, and they have created a relatively stable government.

There are no nations which have recognized them, largely because the African Union refuses to, because they have a policy of recognizing only former colonial political boundaries*.

While Somaliland was a separate colony, the AU members, concerned about their own borders, does not want a separate nation state to be founded out of Somalia.

Well, the Pentagon is concerned about instability in this region, and is now lobbying to have Somaliland recognized.

I tend to agree for a number of reasons:

  • It meshes with the facts on the ground.
  • That it could lead to rearrangement of borders, leading to more viable and prosperous African nations in the long run.
    • I do understand that, in the short term, that secessionist movements would cause a lot of pain.
  • That a policy of slicing stable portions of Somalia away, and slowly tightening the ring around the unstable portions, seems like the only way for stability to ever be restored there.

*Causing untold amounts of strife and misery, as the colonial boundaries cut across ethnic and sectarian lines in a completely arbitrary manner.

Florida Pension Investments in Big Sh#@ Pile

Well, a few days ago, it was the short term money market type funds for local Florida governments and school boards, and today, it’s the state of Florida’s pension fund.

More Structured Investment Vehicles (SIV), more downgrades, more losses.

I think that what has been going on for the past 18-24 months is that the investment banks have realized that the stuff is illiquid (economist speak for worthless), so they fobbed it off on a lot of people with more money than brains, state pension and similar funds.

Given that the level of leverage and complexity is greater than in 1929, the consequences of the collapse might be a lot worse than in 1929. This is not just subprime….It’s almost everything out there.

Corruption in Alaska Too Severe for Company

This surprises me…..From ages 1-7, I lived in Alaska, and for most of that time, my dad was on Governor Bill Egan’s (D) cabinet, and it was not a particularly corrupt place. Now, it appears to resemble Nigeria.

Too corrupt for an energy company, in this case MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. is a level of corruption that I did not expect to see in the US.

“As you are painfully aware the ongoing corruption investigations coupled with previous indictments, guilty pleas and convictions draw into question virtually every major Alaskan project participant and governmental levels from State to Federal,” says the letter from MidAmerican CEO David Sokol. “Obviously your administration had no involvement in these previous shenanigans nor did we; however, you and we alone cannot develop the pipeline project through AGIA’s expected process.”

MidAmerican was expected to be among the companies applying by Friday’s deadline for a package of financial and other pipeline incentives under Palin’s Alaska Gasline Inducement Act.

Oil creates bad government, which explains Texas.

Same As It Ever Was

Paul Wolfowitz has been offered a position on the State Department’s International Security Advisory Board, where he will be offering advice on proliferation, and will have access to highly classified information.

This from a guy who lied us into war, and got fired from his last job because he was favoring his girl-friend.

Same as it ever was.
Same as it ever was.
Same as it ever was.
Same as it ever was.
Same as it ever was.

It’s All Us Feelthy Bloggers Fault

At a national press club event, WH Reporter, and wanker, Dick Gregory claimed that the polarization in the national dialog was a function of the internet. Blogger Richard Power (love that pseudonym) eloquenty responds, and reminds Mr. Gregory of the words of I.F. Stone and Tom Paine, and then sums up (some) the events that really led up to this polarization:

  • Rich pigs like Richard Mellon Scaife dropping tens of millions of dollars on attempted coups like “The Arkansas Project”.
  • The impeachment debacle.
  • The incompetent handling of intel by Bush and His Evil Minions™ leading up to 911
  • The deliberate and premeditated minipulation and deception on intelligence by Bush and His Evil Minions leading up to Iraq.
  • The Swift Boating.
  • The theft of the election in Florida in 2000.
  • Voter suppression and intimidation.
  • The Jamming on Democratic phone banks on election day.
  • The US Gulags.
  • The politicization of the Justice Department.
  • Terry Sciavo
  • Valerie Plame

He makes the point that if Tom Paine were alive, he’d be blogging. Go read it.

The thing that really bugs guys like Mr. Gregory is not the “polarization”, it’s that some guy sitting in front of his screen can fact check him using 15 minutes with Google, and show that he’s doing sloppy, poor quality work.

F-35 JSF Problems Worse Than Reported

I was already aware that that flight testing had been suspended after a power system glitch, but was under the impression that this was a temporary flaw that did not effect flying characteristics, though it did lead to an emergency landing, as any major system dropout, no matter how short, should during testing.

After a series of 7 quite successful flights, the test flight program stops in February 2007 to fix some minor problems in the JSF flight control software. This is not unusual in the early stages of a test flight program. In March 2007, the JSF returns to flight status and takes off for the first supersonic flight. At the end of April the JSF prototype AA-1 takes off several times a week. But then, destiny strikes. On May 3, 2007 with the second test pilot Jeff Knowles at the stick, a serious malfunction hits the JSF. At 38,000 feet (12 km) level flight and at a speed of some 800 km/hour, the plane executed a planned, 360-degree roll but experienced power loss in the electrical system about halfway through the manoeuvre.

In an emergency procedure, power is restored and Jeff Knowles regains control of the plane. The pilot cuts short this 19th test flight and makes an emergency landing in Fort Worth, TX. Due to control problems with right wing flaperons, the JSF has to make that landing at an exceptional high speed of 220 knots (350 km/hr). The plane’s undercarriage, brakes and tires are damaged. The plane is stopped, surrounded by emergency vehicles, and towed away, but several eyewitnesses take pictures of the emergency landing.

This is not a glitch that does not affect flying characteristics. This a dangerous landing and the risk of loss of airframe and pilot.

Additionally, the power supply for the aircraft is about only 65% of necessary power, which, given that the F-35 has a power by wire setup on its control surface actuators means much more than just the radar or displays dropping out, it means potential loss of control.

Additionally, to save money, they want to cancel two of the test aircraft, and eliminate about 15% of the test flights. The excuse is that simulation will handle it, but more reasonably, this is budget games, because if problems are discovered on a fielded system, Congress is over a barrel to protect pilots already flying the aircraft.

Saab, manufacturer of the Gripen, which should be available with a similar sensor suite shortly, though not the same stealth or apyload/range performance is saying that its operating costs will be about 2/3 of the JSF (believable, considering that it is about 1/2 the size), so it becomes a compelling alternative…A MirageIII/V of this generation, if you will.

Considering that the Typhoon, Rafale, and Gripen are all fielded, it is unlikely that they will experience significant price increases (Gripen excepted if they do a growth version), and in the long run will likely be much cheaper.

Al Wynn: Case in Point of What is Wrong in Washington

Below, you can see Pelosi’s endorsement of him.

So has the national NARAL, though the Maryland Chapter was so mad about this they were ready to chew glass.

Al Wynn foted for the war in Iraq, he voted for the bankruptcy bill, against Shays-Meehan campaign finance, for interfering in the Schiavo affair, and for the give away to big oil that was the energy bill.

This incumbency protection racket here is insane. This is probably the second most Democratic district in the state, Baltimore City may very well be the most Democratic district on the Eastern seaboard, and the idea that a corrupt right wing liar gets high profile endorsements simply astonishes me. Particularly since his constituent service sucks so much that Chris Van Hollen from the neighboring district has to pick up the slack.

Edwards is on my Act Blue page (right hand column for link).

Some People in the Subprime Loan Trap Qualified for Better Loans

This is what an unregulated lending market gets you, people with good credit steered toward sub prime loans because the lenders made more money that way.

According to the WSJ article, 55% of all sub prime loan borrowers were qualified for prime loans.

The brokers make big bucks over this.

This is a legacy of Republithug philosophy….The idea that, unfettered by regulation, sophisticated players will be honest.

Waxman Has Just Made the Plame Investigation More Interesting

Bush and His Evil Minions have been stonewalling on releasing Patrick Fitzgerald’s Plame investigation to Henry Waxman, Chairman of the Committee ON Oversight and Ggovernment Reform, has sent a letter to Attorney General Michael Mukasey saying that the White HOuse is blocking release of these documents to his committee, and said that:

Equal application of the law means tþat there should not be one standard applied by the Justice Department to congressional investigations of Democratic administrations and another standard applied to congressional investigations of Republican administrations. I ask that you personally look into this matter and authorize the production of the documents to the Committee without any further delay.

He also notes that Janet Reno cooperated with Congressional committees, which I think is a subtle way of saying that if he does not make a statement for turning over the documents, that Reno is a better man than he is (insert Janet Reno jokes here).

Personally, I think that Mukasey is probably too much one of Bush’s lackeys to to the right thing, but I won’t be disappointed if I am wrong.

Krugman Nails the Root Cause of the Liquididy/Insolvency Crisis

Basically, he sees the cause as being the free market fundamentalism that is practiced by regulators, brokers, and politicians. I wholeheartedly agree.

This time, market players seem truly horrified — because they’ve suddenly realized that they don’t understand the complex financial system they created.

This is, of course, a symptom, not the cause, but he does see the cause too.

How did things get so opaque? The answer is “financial innovation” — two words that should, from now on, strike fear into investors’ hearts.

O.K., to be fair, some kinds of financial innovation are good. I don’t want to go back to the days when checking accounts didn’t pay interest and you couldn’t withdraw cash on weekends.

But the innovations of recent years — the alphabet soup of C.D.O.’s and S.I.V.’s, R.M.B.S. and A.B.C.P. — were sold on false pretenses. They were promoted as ways to spread risk, making investment safer. What they did instead — aside from making their creators a lot of money, which they didn’t have to repay when it all went bust — was to spread confusion, luring investors into taking on more risk than they realized.

Why was this allowed to happen? At a deep level, I believe that the problem was ideological: policy makers, committed to the view that the market is always right, simply ignored the warning signs. We know, in particular, that Alan Greenspan brushed aside warnings from Edward Gramlich, who was a member of the Federal Reserve Board, about a potential subprime crisis.

(emphasis mine)

So, when does he get his Nobel?

Go and read the whole thing

US National Intelligence Estimate Says That Iran Has Shuttered It’s Nuclear Weapons Program

Iran shuttered its program in 2003, and it remains shut down to this day.

I’m not sure why the CIA, NSA, DIA, etc. are pushing back against Dick Cheney and rest of the war porn chicken hawks, but it’s good that they are.

I’m not sure why the DNI, who has been adamant about not releasing NIEs, chose to release this. My guess is that someone in the press got a hold of it.