He was about 2-½ years younger than me.
I’ve “known” him, in a completely non meatspace way, since Netslaves in the late 1990s, and I miss him.
Hat tip to the Group News Blog for notifying us of this.
Year: 2007
Bush Vetos Eeducation, Health and Labor Budget
This is about his ego. He is claiming that it is $10 billion more than he wants to see, but he is requesting $196 billion for his pet wars.
The bills did have bipartisan support, but not enough to override a veto, though that may change.
Turkey Escalating in Kurdish Regions of Iraq
They are now dispatching helicopter strikes inside Iraq.
Honestly, I think that it will be gradual, but I see a Turkish invasion of Kurdistan in the next 6-12 months, through a process of gradual escalation.
UK Investigation of BAE-Saudi Bribes Back On
About a year ago, Tony Blair canceled a serious fraud investigation of a very large arms deal between BAE Systems* and the House of Saud under threat of cancellation of the order, and now two NGOs have been given permission to investigate an investigation of this decision under the OECD’s Anti-Bribery Convention.
It’s pretty clear that bribery was involved, I believe that Prince Bandar got over a billion dollars in “consulting fees”, for example, and the House of Saud was quite clear that any investigation of kickbacks would result in the cancellation of the contract for multi-billion dollar purchase of Eurofighter Typhoons.
*Full disclosure, I worked at a BAE Systems facility as a contractor from June 2005 (about, depends on when the sale went through) through Decmeber 2006 as a contractor. I had no involvement with this deal however.
Bhutto calls for Musharraf Resignation
As I’ve said before, Musharraf is not a reliable partner on terrorism, choosing instead to spend US aid on Military Bling, and now Benazir Bhutto is calling on him to resign.
I see real echoes of the fall of the Shah of Iran, only this time, there is a nuclear arsenal involved.
Heckuva job Bushie.
Generic Drug Bill Stalled by Pharma Lobby
The bill ould ban reverse payments, where a brand name company pays a generic manufacturer not to manufacture a generic version.
Needless to say, the pig felching lobbyiests at PhRMA are going hammer and tongs against it, and it’s stalled in committee in both houses of Congress.
Economic News for the Day
Yes, the stock market is up, but that is peripatetic. Here are some more links to follow:
Countrywide’s mortgage loan origination falls 48%
Existing home sales expected to hit 5-year low in 2007, a 12/7% decline, with 2008 looking even worse.
China’s inflation rate hits 11-year high, they are claiming 6.5%, but how you can have that when food is going up at 17.6%, and pork by 54.9%, I gotta figure that they, like the US tweak their cost of living figures. If forced to raise interest rates, it will put further downward pressure on the dollar.
Black Thursday Coming as New Accounting Rules Cut In
On November 15, FASB 157 comes into effect, which will require that level 3 assets (a brief primer on level 3 assets here) be “marked to market” (priced by market value), or written down as losses.
Previously, they had been priced using complex, and likely inaccurate, models developed by the holders of these instruments.
So now, they have to price these assets according the price that they might fetch in a market which does not exist.
The author of this article, Harry Koza puts it more colloquially:
Right, like the assumption that house prices can only ever go up. Anyway, FASB says that starting Nov. 15, fair value at any given moment is the price you can sell the thing for, period. So now all the banks and dealers have to disclose how much of what’s on their books is crap that there’s no bid for, and write down the value to what it’s really worth, which, in some cases, may be bupkes. Needless to say, the previous valuations of those investments, using management’s presumptuous assumptions, were much closer to par than the new ones will be.
It’s 1929 on crack.
U.S. Supreme Court May Hear Pivotal Gun Control Case
My guess is that we will shortly see US v. Miller overturned, which defined the 2nd amendment as a states right, which will be a bad thing.
FWIW, my reading of the debates at the constitutional convention, and my understanding of the language of the times, I’ve always read it as, “A militia is necessary for the protection of individual freedom, so in the context of a militia, people must be allowed to keep and bear arms.”
That was also the essence of the Miller decision in 1939, which I expect to be overturned.
What Mike Said.
Mike Says:
The Democrats should run on the platform of Our gays are better than their gays.
Ours are the out, fun, happy, Will and Grace gays.
Theirs are the angry, closeted, creepy, preying, priest/gym teacher gays.
Which do you prefer, America?
Word up!!!
iPhone Goes Over With a Yawn in Europe
This comes as no surprise. Many of the features that are viewed as revolutionary in the US are considered fairly ordinary in Europe, where regulations, particularly those that apply to hardware openness, have created a more dynamic and innovative marketplace.
Nearly $15 Billion Goes from AAA to Junk
Calculated Risk: Fitch Downgrades $37.2 Billion of CDOs
Fitch Ratings downgraded Monday the credit ratings of $37.2 billion of global collateralized debt obligations, with more than $14 billion worth of transactions falling from the highest-rated AAA perch to speculative-grade, or junk, status.
…
The rating agency said more than 60 CDO transactions are still on watch for potential downgrade, with a resolution due on or before Nov. 21.On Monday, nearly $20 billion worth of transactions was cut from investment-grade to junk, said Kevin Kendra, managing director at Derivative Fitch.
The problem is that there are many assets that simply have no buyers, at least not at a non-bankruptcy inducing price. As such, they are illiquid, and valuless.
Guiliani Lowering Expectations in Early States
I’m not sure whether this is a legitimate assessment that he is seriously behind Huckabee and Romney in Iowa and Romney in New Hampshire, or if this is just an attempt to lower expectations.
Considering that Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York have primaries on February 5, and that he should do well there (remember the people who know and hate him live in New York city, and are not Republithugs), it could be a bit of both.
I think that, unless Guiliani plays his “keeping the n***ers down” card very hard in South Carolina, he won’t be competitive there, and it may all be over before February.
Iraqi Government Drafts New Law Stripping Contractors of Immunity
According to reports he draft stateall immunities … shall be canceled.
I would not be at all surprised if this is the first law that the Iraqi parliament passes. I would be surprised if there are 5 Iraqis in the world who would oppose this law.
Federal Judge Directs White House to Preserve Email Backups
If the White House obeys this order, and that’s a big if, we can expect to see the email records from this point forward preserved.
It’s good news for historians, and any future war crimes tribunal.
Economic Newws
A Lehman Brothers analyst downgraded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. He cut their respective target prices from the mid $60s/share to mid $40s a share as a result of the turmoil in the mortgage markets.
The private equity firm Blackstone reported a net loss of $113.2 million, as compared to a profit of $372.5 million a year ago. Its stock is about $24, as opposed to the $38 when it went public a few months back.
This includes $802.6 million of non-cash compensation charges tied to Blackstone’s initial public offering in June, so my quick read is that the partners in the firm pulled a ¾ billion dollar scam on people who bought into the IPO, but I’m an not wise in the ways of IPOs, so your analysis may vary.
One of the Fat Cat Televangelists Complains About Senate Investigation
Here is a picture of the good Reverend Eddie Long:
He’s complaining about having to turn over financial data to a Senate investigating committee.
Boo F&^%ing who. I used to run the largest (only really) event for a 501(c)3 non-profit, and we had to do a form 990, which is publicly available every year. Churches do not.
It’s was a lot more of pain for this non profit, which did not break $100K in gross revenues when I was there, than it is for his multi-million dollar mega-church.
The real solution is to eliminate the 990 exemption for churches, and let them play by the same rules as other not-for profits. We’ve seen more than enough corruption by the “God Squad” and they should operate under the same rules as other non-profits.
E*Trade Likely to Go Belly Up
It’s been a tough day for them. E*Trade shares are down 57% today, following the announcement Friday that they had significant exposure in mortgage backed securities. (I covered it here)
One analyst says that it is 65% likely that they will go belly up.
E*Trade is claiming that it will remain solvent with “an immediate write-down over $1 billion”. Given that has a “$3 billion portfolio of asset-backed securities”, it would seem unlikely, except for the fact that no one actually knows what they would sell for. There is no functioning market for these vehicles.
Sandler O’Neil analyst Richard Repetto said investors should no longer buy E-Trade stock, but said he doesn’t believe the firm is facing the worst-case scenario others are forecasting. He added the firm isn’t likely to have to take the more than $1 billion in losses needed to hurt its “well capitalized” standing, unless credit issues spread to the portfolio of prime asset backed securities or home equity loan performance “materially worsens.”
And there is the rub. Everyone believes that the credit issues will spread, and that home equity loan performance will tank.
If you have more than $100K in E*trade, I would suggest that you get out. Under that amount, you are federally insured.
More Evidence of Desperation in the Financial Markets, Death Threats
I think that this is an indication of just how precarious the current financial situation really is.
Australia: Judge Throws out Terror Case, Calls State Security a Bunch of Pratts
This is not surprising. Australian anti-terror prosecutions have been even worse than those of the US. John Howard has used this bogeyman, and a lot of implied racism, to maintain power, and now that people get it, tbe judiciary does too.