Month: January 2008

Another Three Month for Boeing 787 First Flight

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It’s already been delayed at least once, and now the first flight of the 787 is delayed until at least 3 months, to the end of the 2nd quarter.

In a statement, Boeing Commercial Airplanes chief executive Scott Carson says “we continue to be challenged by start-up issues in our factory and in our extended global supply chain”.

Well, duh.

It was originally supposed to have a first flight in August of 2007, and now they are saying may or June of 2008.

Of interest is the fact that the press, particularly the American press is not running around saying, “the sky is falling”, as they did with the roughly 18 month delay on the A380.

Part of the reason is that it’s easier for the press to find some Eurocrat tied into Airbus to wring his hands publicly, not surprising given its origins as a state sponsored enterprise, and part of it, at least in the US is a cultural bias against Airbus because of its state origins (kind of necessary, everything in Europe had gotten the %$#@ bombed out of it 25 years prior).

Oh Man, This is One Harsh Obama Endorsement

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Seriously, when the Las Vegas Review Journal gave this endorsement, they knifed Obama and Clinton. They describe him as “hardly” the ideal candidate fro president, but preferable to, “Bill Clinton invited onto a This is Your Life talk show where they’re joined by Juanita Broaddrick, Kathleen Willey, Paula Jones, Gennifer Flowers and Monica Lewinsky.”

So, “Obama is, at least, likeable”, and Hillary is “re-run of the horror movie “It Came From Little Rock,” with the sound turned up much too loud.”

The only substantive comment that they make is that, “John Edwards’ anti-capitalist populism is not in this country’s long-term best interests.”

Like Anglo-Saxon hyper capitalism has led to rising living standards.

It’s wankeriffic, but at least it’s well written wanking. It made me laugh.

European Central Bank Executive Council Member Says that Currency Strength May Constrain Fed Actions

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I have been warning for some time that the US dollar, and the US economy is in a bad position because we are increasingly in a position where rate cuts can cause the US dollar to plummet, and while this may be good in the long term, it would move toward restoring the balance of trade, in the short term it leaves US policy makers with the choice between inflation and recession, and that the net result would probably involve both.*

Well, we now have a central banker at the European Central Bank, Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi, saying the same thing, when he, “warned that the tumbling dollar may now start to foreclose the option of US rate cuts and force the Fed to keep monetary policy tighter than it would like.”

The ECB is acknowledging that the Emperor has no clothes. While it seems mild, it’s actually a very strong statement, and it’s not the individual statement of one person. They don’t freelance that way.

*See here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here, with the last link being just as I started the blog, but I’ve been posting about this on a private BBS for about 6 years.

Economics Update

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Consumer prices rise by the highest amount since 1990, though it should be noted that the inflation numbers have become far less reflective of reality due to “creative massaging” since then.

H/t to The Big Picture for finding the cartoon.

Bond Insurerer Ambac Cuts Dividend, and declares loss, they are bleeding to death.

[on edit, added the following]
Standard & Poors raises the assumed losses on 2006 subprime bonds from 14% to 19% when it makes ratings on financial instruments, such as CDOs. They are in the process of reviewing their models for all outstanding mortgage backed debt. (The end result won’t be pretty)

Then we have a report from JP Morgan saying that home equity delinquencies are high In fact, they are higher than they would have expected at the bottom of a recession, which implies that the way down is still pretty scary, and their profits fell 34%.

On the good news side, oil prices have fallen below $90/bbl, because traders expect to see a moderation in demand because of an economic slowdown.

FCC Investigates Comcast Packet Blocking

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For what it’s worth, if Comcast finds it necessary to throttle some applications, they should be open about it to customers and prospective customers.

What happened here was that they were forging TCP reset packets to throttle the traffic, and then lying about it.

The problem is threefold, first, it interferes with non-Bit Torrent applications, I’ve read about it interfering with Lotus Notes, second, it makes troubleshooting problems with other applications very difficult, and third, the customer is being defrauded.

FWIW, traffic management, if necessary, should be based on bandwidth, which is what the ISPs sell, not application. It, or so I’ve been told, a trivial operation.

To quote Wetmachine: Harold Feld’s Tales of the Sausage Factory:

1) The FCC issued a public notice asking for comment on our Petition for Declaratory Ruling that Comcast’s “network management practice” of messing with BitTorrent uploads violated the FCC’s “Broadband Policy Statement,” which includes a principle that network operators may not block or degrade content or applications. In a separate public notice (but as part of the same proceeding), the FCC also seeks comment on the Vuze Petition for Rulemaking on how broadband access providers handle and shape IP traffic generally. (Copy of Vuze Petition here, copy of our Petition here).

2) Separately, the FCC issued a separate public notice seeking comment on a Petition filed by Public Knowledge and the usual suspects asking the FCC to declare that wireless carriers cannot deny short codes or block text messaging. This goes after Verizon’s high profile “oopsie” of denying a request by NARAL for a short code. Although, as we pointed out in the Petition, the more likely and pernicious problem is with plain old anticompetitive blocking, such as denying a short code to VOIP provider Rebtel.com and denying applications to major banks offering competing services.

3) Comcast confirmed that the FCC has lanched a formal inquiry into whether it violated the FCC’s broadband policy statement. Comcast reiterated that it will fully cooperate with the FCC, and expects any investigation to show that Comcast did not block content and has engaged in legitimate network management practices.

I think that the problem here is largely cultural. To paraphrase Lilly Tomlin from Laugh-In, who originally said this about the phone company, “We’re the cable company, we don’t have to care.”

That said, for the complex minutiae of how this is proceeding, and what it all means, go to the link. The process is confusing.

In particular, look at his, “How Do I File Comments?” section. If you want your voice heard.

Democrats Move to Prevent Bush From Encumbering Next President on Iraq

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Honestly, I don’t see these going anywhere, because of the gutless leadership in the House and Senate, but Representative Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) and Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) have introduced bills prohibiting the Bush administration from entering into a binding security arrangement with Iraq. They require the President to follow Article II of the constitution, and get the “advice and consent” of the Senate.

You can see the House version here.

FWIW, it should be introduced once a month leading up to election day, just to make Republicans vote for the war, over, and over, and over again.

For the life of me, with a substantial majority of Republicans wanting a pullout, and a president who is less popular than the idea of Britney Spears* as a baby sitter, that the Republican delegation continues to back this failed war of a failed president.

They are drowning, and they are throwing themselves an anvil, and calling it water wings.

*Yes, I know that I have promised not to mention They Who Must Not Be Named, but this is not a discussion of her, rather an invocation.

Bob Gates: Moron

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I guess that Robert Gates is just Don Rumsfeld without the charisma.

He’s criticising NATO forces for not doing a proper job in Afghanistan.

Of course, he would be a bit more convincing if:

  • The US had not allowed Osama bin Laden and Mullah Mohammad Omar get away because they were too timid about potential US casualties.
  • Bush and His Evil Minions™ hadn’t simply dropped a not-yet pacified south to go after Saddam, who had nothing to do with 911.
  • If US tactics in the south weren’t so violent and indiscriminate (particularly the bomb happy USAF), that the British weren’t asking US special forces to get the hell out.
  • If US aid policies in Afghanistan weren’t primarily for the benefit of US contractors who were Republican donors.
  • If the US wasn’t juxtaposing this incompetence in delivering aid with an aggressive anti-opium program that leaves Afghan farmers with a choice between aiding the Taliban or starving.
  • The US wasn’t currently limiting its operations in the east, where Taliban activity is minimal.
  • If the US were not committing a smaller proportion of its military to Afghanistan than the NATO allies.

Is there a single competent Republican party Apparatchik in this entire nation?

Further Indian Problems With Russian Arms Deals

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While the Indian military has had a long history of using Soviet, and later Russian weapons systems, on the naval side things have been strained lately, with delays, under-performance, and cost overruns being the rule rather than the exception, with the Admiral Gorshokov/Vikramaditya fiasco being most prominent.

Now the Indian Navy has
rejected the recently upgraded Kilo class submarines.

This appears to have been driven by integration issues with the Klub-S 3M-54E1 (SS-N-27 Sizzler) anti-ship/land attack missiles, which failed to strike the targets in tests.

I’m not sure if this will effect the massive medium fighter buy planned by the Indian AF, as the problems at this point seem to be limited to naval equipment.

Danny Glover Endorses Donna Edwards

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Danny Glover has endorsed Donna Edwards for Congress in the 4th district, against corrupt DINO Al Wynn.

Last primary, despite assaults on Edwards staffers by Wynn staffers, she came within a few thousand votes of winning, despite running a campaign on a shoestring.

To contribute, go here.

Note that the 4th district is very reliably Democratic, it covers most of PG county, so the real election is in the primary, held Feb 12.

My Thoughts on the Debate

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I came away with one conclusion, that listening to the inane and hacktackular questions of Brian Williams and Tim Russert was on par with being waterboarded. I thought that Natalie Morales was a bit better, but I have less experience with here, and in the case of TV Newsies, familiarity breeds contempt.

I thought that it was a wash, though Clinton nailing Obaba on his vote for the Bush/Cheney energy bill (WTF!) was a good zinger.

John Edwards seemed a bit more energetic. Obama and Clinton seemed a bit tired.

The best questions were asked by the candidates by each other, but that was a very low bar.

Why the hell does Russert have a job?

Pigs Fly: William F. Buckley Jr. Calls for Regulation

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This is true, he is calling for regulation in the mortgage markets. Of course, his prescriptions are disastrously wrong, but he’s new at this regulation thing.

The short form for any solution: Do what FDR did. This problem has grown as we have rolled back depression era regulations.

His points, and my rebuttals:

  • He calls it, “terrible subprime-mortgage phenomenon”.
    • It’s not. It’s bigger than that. It’s not even a mortgage phenomenon, it’s bigger than that. There is a general rot at the core of our financial system.
  • The mortgage crisis came on because our free society did not think to intervene at a juncture where it could have limited the effects of cosmic thoughtlessness and insouciant greed.
    • Actually, I would argue that, given Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan’s close ties to Ayn Rand, it was because he supported, “cosmic thoughtlessness and insouciant greed”.
  • Mortgage brokers not caring about credit worthiness, because they immediately resell the loans.
    • Dead nuts right here.
  • The federal government being the only agent that can possibly intervene, it needs to do so, by forbidding the liquidation of mortgages until the disparity between true value and hypothetical value is pounded away by time and inflation — and a revitalization of the functions of the marketplace.
    • This is wrong. It is unbelievably and catestrophically wrong. He is proposing no foreclosures for the duration of the downturn. Local downturns, ones from much shallower peaks, have typically lasted 5 years. This one may last a lot longer. If you have no foreclosure, you have no incentive to pay the mortgage, and so you have NO LENDERS WILLING TO LEND. We would have a totalli illiquid market.

For what it’s worth, a good first step would be to allow bankruptcy judges to redefine the terms (not the principal) of the loans, as they can for vacation homes and rental properties.

If someone has that option, then a lender is likely to be more willing to deal with them responsibly about loan restructuring.

At this time, the people servicing the loans frequently do not own the loans, and as such, they are unable to renegotiate the terms. Allowing bankruptcy to do so would save a lot of homes, and save the market, and it would penalize the most egregiously abusive lenders.

This Is One of the Most Heroic Things I’ve Ever Heard

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Mercy is sometimes a very difficult thing. It is sometimes a mark of a sort of strength that I can’t even imagine where it comes from.

Here we have the parents of a toddler asking prosecutors to show leniency toward the twelve year old perpetrator.

He beat their baby to death with a baseball bat, and they are asking for the prosecutors not to prosecute, and if they do, to prosecute as a minor.

I don’t know where they find the strength.