Month: March 2008

Home Sales Rise (Not Really, We Are All Still Doomed)

So, according to so-called business reporters, we have a slight sales rise in home sales off of the biggest price drop ever, 10.7% year over year.

This might be a reasonable story, a tale of light at the end of the tunnel, except for the fact that by any reasonable metric, as Barry Ritholtz so ably notes, housing sales fell. They are down 28.3% from a year ago, and the uptick is actually a seasonal difference from January to February, which is conveniently ignored by the National Association of Realtors, who never tell the truth when a lie would serve.

People do not buy homes in January.

Morons See Dead Cat Bounce, Pretend It’s Schrodinger’s Cat

So, this mouthdrooling moron thinks that we have seen the bottom of a falling stock market when the Dow hit 11,740.15 on March 10.

The Fed has just dumped the gross national product of Guatemala in the stock markets, and you think that the bottom has been reached.

More phony numbers, and the DJI is always a phony number, from people who have a vested interest in dumping their crap off on you.

Sweet Cthulhu Chocolate Chip Chews, This is Stupid!!!!

So, Hillary Clinton is suggesting that Bush create, “an emergency working group on foreclosures”, staffed by such notables as Robert Rubin, Paul Volker, and ….wait for it….wait for it….wait for it….wait for it….Alan Greenspan.

Alan Greenspan the man who suggested in 2004 that the housing sector was, “in good shape”, we would all be better off if, “lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage”?????

I am completely at a loss for invective.

Re-Regulating the Financial Markets

The New York Times notes that there is a tug of war going on between the Bush Administration and Democrats over the type and extent of new regulations.

While I think that some centralization of the “regulatory alphabet soup” is a good idea, one of the things you are hearing, particularly from the Bushies, is that there is a, “tangled web of federal and state regulators”.

I think that this is Bush speak for cutting the states out of it, so actions like those of Elliot Spitzer* will be impossible.

On the other end of Pennsylania Avenue, you have Barney Frank, who I like, but truth be told, I think does not go far enough.

We have large organizations operating under the idea that they are too big to fail, and remember that Bear Stearns is a smallish player in this market, so this assesment is correct.

If the taxpayers are at risk, and they are, then the taxpayers must be allowed to regulate to minimize that risk.

Krugman makes this very point:

America came out of the Great Depression with a pretty effective financial safety net, based on a fundamental quid pro quo: the government stood ready to rescue banks if they got in trouble, but only on the condition that those banks accept regulation of the risks they were allowed to take.

Over time, however, many of the roles traditionally filled by regulated banks were taken over by unregulated institutions — the “shadow banking system,” which relied on complex financial arrangements to bypass those safety regulations.

Now, the shadow banking system is facing the 21st-century equivalent of the wave of bank runs that swept America in the early 1930s. And the government is rushing in to help, with hundreds of billions from the Federal Reserve, and hundreds of billions more from government-sponsored institutions like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks.

As does Noriel Roubini who believes that the actions taken to this point are band aids, and not solutions, furthermore, he notes that, “Only a few of such securities firms are systemically important and deserve the liquidity support of the Fed in case of a run on their liabilities”, which is a large portion of this crisis.

Many of these institutions have, through years of lax antitrust enforcement become “too big to fail”.

So, my first suggestion is that the continuing concentration of market among fewer and fewer firms in the financial arena needs to be reversed.

These firms need to be broken up into small pieces.

On CNN Money, of all places, Paul R. La Monica suggestion that investment banks need to be treated like children. It’s eye catching, but wrong, particularly when he suggests that the repeal of Glass-Steagall was still a good thing..

The behavior of the banks, or more accurately the individual people working in those banks, was quite mature, if amoral.

From top to bottom, the employees of these firms behaved in a manner consistent with those employees own personal best interests, as opposed to those of the firm or the market.

The name for such a system, where individual players arbitrage for their own personal best outcome is called Capitalism, by the way.

What we need to do is to ensure that taxpayers are not left on the hook down the road for decisions made for personal benefit now.

Among other things, this means that we need real regulations of wages and benefits in the financial services industries, with real consequences including asset forfeiture and jail.

People will continue to do stupid things for good results this quarter so long as their bonuses and promotions are a result of their performance in this quarter.

I would note that I have not yet come up with any specifics on how to limit excessive compensation for short term results beyond taxing all excessive taxes. I’ll put my thinking cap on.

The push for quarterly results is what leads to excessive leverage, which is what has led to many of the problems.

In 1929, you needed about 20¢ to buy $1.00 stock on margin. Following the Roosevelt regulations it was 75¢ to buy that same stock on margin, though this was lowered to 50¢ in the late 1970s.

Bear Stearns was leveraged on the order of 50 to one, or about .

Leverage is essential to a modern financial system working, but excessive leverage causes a collapse.

We need to put government auditors in the major financial firms today, with the power to review all records and investments, and to demand changes.

Also, there should be a change in taxes. If the rich have to be bailed out, and this appears to be the case, then they should make the down payments on that bail out.

I would also suggest that a surcharge be added to income tax to which no credits or deductions apply, starting at the salary of the President (currently $400K) with a 1% surcharge, and increasing by 1% for each multiple above that (so $400k-$800K would be 1%, $800K-$1.2M would be 2%, etc), to a maximum marginal rate of 75% at around $180 million a year, which would apply to all forms of compensation (H/T to Dean Baker, see below, for noting the total compensation thing).

It would serve to put a brake on executive compensation, and generated some much needed revenue for the treasury.

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC, suggest instead that we legislate a cap on total compensation in the financial industry of $1 million.

It appeals to my vengeful side, but I think that my suggestion is better. It applies to overpaid athletes, drugged out pop stars, and worthless hotel heiresses too, and provides resources to create a better and more just society.

*No, I mean his legal actions against Wall Street, when the FTC, SEC, etc., led by Bush and His Evil Minions were letting the foxes run the henhouse.
Let’s be clear, I am keeping my promise not to mention They Who Must Not Be Named. I don’t see no names, do you?

Stupid Arguments

Josh Marshall has it right when he calls out Evan Bayh for being stupid, when he suggests that electoral votes should count in the super delegates decision.

He does not go far enough though.

All the arguments, whether popular votes, delegates, etc. should be irrelevant to the super delegates decision.

They are a 20% swing vote, and their concerns should be as follows (in order of descending importance):

  1. Who will be the best president of the United States of America
  2. Who is best for the party.
  3. Who is most likely to be elected.

Now it’s clear that things like delegates, popular vote, and fund raising, etc. are factors in those concerns, but they are not the concerns themselves.

They are the trees, not the forest.

787 Needs Wing Box Design

So, the latest update on Boeings increasingly delayed 787 has us seeing that Boeing and partner Fuji heavy industries will have to redesign the center wing box, because it is too weak.

Boeing’s delays on the 787 now rival that of Airbus on the A380, only once the problems with the European super jumbo came out, the all came out, and we are still getting this drip, drip, drip of bad news from Seattle Chicago.

This is yet another reason why the Boeing wonks who suggest that the 787 should have been used instead of the 767 are full of it, BTW.

The USAF needs its tanker sooner, rather than later.

Got Everything Wrong

So says John Cole of Balloon Juice.

While it is amusing to read that he finds it, “amazing I could tie my shoes in 2001-2004“, my question is more direct. What the hell are your going to do to fix it?

I’ve wrong on most of my predictions, but I have not pushed policy prescriptions on the basis of those predictions.

You were were more than wrong, you were an accessory to evil, and an enthusiastic one at that.

You contributed to making us less safe, killing in excess of half a million Iraqis, driving more than a million from their homes, and damaged the United States for decades to come economically, diplomatically, and morally.

You cheer led for this evil.

The Julius Streicher, the publisher of Der Stürmer was put to death for his cheer leading, and while your misdeeds are far more milder, simply saying, “oops, sorry”, does not cut it

What Are you going to do to make it right?

Signs of the Apocalypse: Fox News Edition

First, Fox and Friends anchor Brian Kilmeade walks off the set over constant Obama bashing, though to be fair, they also made fun of his background as a sports caster, and then Chris Wallace also on FOX and Friends, objects to similar behavior.

The Fux Newsies were objecting to the bashing over the phrase, “typical white person”.

If it were just Chris Wallace, I would assume that his father, Mike Wallace, had dope slapped him over it, but two news anchors essentially defending Obama?

I’m expecting to see the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man.

Israel’s Newest F-16s Grounded on Formaldehyde Concerns

High levels of Formaldehyde have been found in the cockpits’ of F-16I’ss.

The F-16 I (see picture below), is a variant unique to the IAF, with conformal tanks and a spine for additional avionics, and given the IAF’s specific needs, it likely has an air conditioning system tailored to this equipment, which is likely the source of the contamination.

It could come from combustion, but the path from combustor to cockpit would be unlikely.

Common Sense Consumer Protection in Arkansas

Arkansas Attorney General Dustin McDaniel is saying that two recent State Supreme Court decisions mean that payday lenders can be prosecuted under the Arkansas Deceptive Trade Practices Act.

No offense to any reader of mine from Arkansas, and a quick look at the statistics reveals that number over the past 8 months to be 27, but this is the one of the last places that I would expect this.

I do understand that Arkansas is less corrupt than Louisiana, more populist than Texas, and less backward than Mississippi, but I find this to be a very surprising development.

While Arkansas does have a a bit of a tradition of populism, I think that this more important than simply short term politics.

There is an increasingly strong view, society wide, that deregulation of financial markets, from the very small (Payday Lenders), to the very large (Wall Street) have failed.

People realize that in the real world, there are situational and informational asymmetries that require that the government take action to prevent predators from preying on the weak.

Took them long enough.

Best Telecommunications Regulation Joke Ever!

Courtesy of Harold Feld’s Tales of the Sausage Factory

The intervention of the Jewish holiday of Purim, which is celebrated by getting drunk until you cannot tell the difference between Verizon winning the C Block and Google winning the C Block, kept me from posting sooner.

OK, there aren’t that many great telecommunications regulations jokes, but still, this is really funny….If you are Jewish…..and if you have been following the FCC’s C Block auction.

OK, it’s a limited audience….but I find it funny, OK?

Economics Update

Oil is holding steady, and the dollar has strenghtened, but Gasonine has hit a new record.

My predictions, which are usually wrong, Oil is pretty much permanently above $100/bbl, the dollar has a way to go down still, probably settling sell south of $1.75:€1.00, and Gasoline prices will break $4.00/gal in a year, and that there will be overshoots on all of them.

But my predictive record sucks wet farts from dead pigeons.

It looks like the Federal Home Loan Banks will be performing the way that God and Herbert Hoover* intended, in that will be making things much worse by bailing out investors in bad mortgage bonds to the tune of $150 billion.

Hoover was a stalwart supporter of doing the wrong thing, back to his days in China, where he supporter what came very close to murder in Chinese mines.

Oh….JP Morgan blinked, and upped their offer on Bear Stearns to $10/share. This is a bailout of two groups of people:

  • The Bear Stearns employees who f&%$ed up the place to begin with.
  • The investors who saw the mess, and said, “Give me some of that.”

They both deserve to lose, and, of course, those people who bought at $5/share just made out like raped apes.

*Hoover created the FHLB system.

Another Day, Another Taser Death

Well, a few days, and a couple of deaths actually, see here (tasered while in handcuffs), and here.

Let’s be clear on this: as long as Tasers are not designated lethal weapons, they will continue to kill, and as long as the police know that they can use them, and that they do not get automatic review that a peace officer does every time he discharges a weapon, police will continue to abuse this lethal weapon.