Month: April 2008

Illegal Wiretap Bill

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It is now being reported that, after having thrown everything at the Congressional Democrats but the kitchen sink, Bush is trying to adopt a more conciliatory attitude on the FISA update.

You’ve accused Pelosi and Reyes of everything short of buggering goats, and now it’s time to make nice.

Bush does not get it. The congressional Democrats stood up to him before the recess, and when they got back to their home districts, their constituents basically high fived them for standing up to him.

They realize that standing up to Mr. 19% is a political winner, so you have to convince them of the benefit to the public good of your proposals.

Bush’s problem is that there is no public good to telco immunity. It’s not about the public good. It’s about keeping Bush and His Evil Minions™ out of jail.

Telco immunity is important to Bush because Bush illegally coerced the telecommunications companies to Hoover the phone and internet well before 911, and if it comes out in court, he goes to jail, as do many of his cronies.

Even the MSM is getting it now, with the LA Times describing DNI Michael McConnell’s behavior at a retreat with members of the House Intelligence Committee as being water carrying for the administration.

Took them long enough. He has been lying, and lying in ways that can be disproved in a few minutes with “the Google”, for months now, and the press is finally starting to notice.

All of this lot need to go on trial after January. The pardon of Nixon has created a cult of impunity among Republicans that needs to be shut down.

OOXML News

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Microsoft’s attempt to abuse the international standards process has gotten even more bizarre.

Beyond the fact that this standard sucks, with tags for things like color varying from application to application in the suite, the ISO is now delaying an announcement on the vote.

It could be that they don’t want to make an announcement on April fools day, but more likely it is the fact that the legitimacy of various national votes on this have been disputed, in particular Norway, which voted 4:1 against accepting the standard, but was recorded as voting for the standard.

To the degree that I understand such things, which is limited, this standard sucks, which is part of the problem. Additionally, there is a very real issue that Microsoft will use IP laws, and “undocumented features” to leverage their control of the office suite.

Microsoft’s “promises” to allow OOXML be used by all are cut out of very thin cloth.

Economics Update

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First, let me complain, yet again, about the nature of financial reporting. They are neck deep in dung, but they continue to look for a pony.

Cases in pointL

The the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 48.6 from 48.3 in February, which while higher than the 47.5 anticipated is still a contraction. Any number below 50 is a contraction. The index is a derivative (the calculus type, not the financial type), with 50 being zero. 48.6 is still a trend down, and this should be the lede.

Then we have construction spending “falling less than expected“. Again, construction spending fell, and while the “consensus” was 0.9%, and it fell 0.3%, this isn’t news, unless you tell us who, or why the consensus was that number.

Grrrrr.

On the “economic news for the rest of us” front, we have predictions that 200,000 jobs will be eliminated in the banking sector, and the number of food stamp recipients has gone through the roof.

BTW, if you are wondering if the real estate collapse is just a locak phemenon, the answer is no. We are now seeing the beginnings of a real estate collapse in china, and the housing crunch has now moved to the Hamptons.

Shanghai and the Hamptons. When you look at the range covered, there ain’t much left outside of this.

In the world of currency, it appears that the dollar has had the biggest quarterly loss since Q4 2004. The ECB is concerned with inflation, and quite honestly is not experiencing the same sort of meltdown that the US is, so it’s holding rates steady, which strengthens the Euro.

Finally, we have banks writing down billions of dollars (here, and here) in various bad investments. The markets rewarded them today, but I think that this will get much worse before it gets any better.

Zimbabwe Elections

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The elections results are still delayed, and there is now talk of a presidential runoff. My guess is that the margin was too large for Zanu-PF to make Mugabe the winner, so they are angling for a 2nd round of vote fraud, possibly at a time when foreign attention is elsewhere.

We have reports that the leaders of MDC were in hiding. If the Zimbabwe state security apparatus wants to move, it would have be before the final vote total.

On the brighter side, it appears that thare are negociations between Zanu-PF and the MDC, which implies that there might be a peaceful transition, though I think that Mugabe will be the wild card in all this.

The Role of Hedge Funds in Economic Collapse

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Paul Krugman blogs today and wonders if, “Iceland the victim of a financial conspiracy. Really, seriously.

There are reports that hedge funds are trying to break the bank of Iceland for a few bucks.

As Krugman notes:

Such things really do happen. During the 1997-1998 financial crisis there was, almost certainly, a financial conspiracy against Hong Kong. According to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, several major hedge funds engaged in a “double play”, shorting both the city-state’s stock market and its currency. The alleged plan was to put the HKMA in a double bind: it would be forced either to raise interest rates to defend the Hong Kong dollar — driving stocks down — or to devalue the currency. Either way the hedge funds thought they’d make a killing. They were, however, caught in a bear trap when the HKMA did the unexpected and bought up a large fraction of the HK stock market.”

According to Krugman, who is in a position to know, Bear Stearns figures prominently in what is going on in Iceland.

I would not be surprised if Bear were also involved in the 1997-8 machinations too. They have always had a rep as being the most brutal of the large investment banks.

This is yet another case for greater regulation of the financial markets.

A tax on currency transactions might be a bad idea either. Even a tax of less than 1/10% would eliminate much of the currency speculation that leaves a path of poverty and destruction around the world.

Iraq Fighting Post Mortem (Sort Of)

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First, we have the revelation that the news cease fire was brokered by Iranian General Qassem Suleimani, who is on a US terrorism watch list for, “alleged involvement in terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear and missile technology.

When the going gets tough, our allies the Hakim family run to Iran for help. Nice.

The reports of NY Times reporter is particularly instructive, “The common observation was this: There was nowhere the Mahdi either did not control or could not strike at will. Maliki and the Hakims lost, and they lost big.

The reason for the qualifier in the title is that elements of the Mahdi Army are claiming that the government is breaking the cease fire. Hopefully, this is simply a temporary artifact of a new cease fire.