Month: May 2008

Von Spakovsky Out

Bush’s voter suppression guru withdraws his nomination to FEC.

This means that the FEC board nominations will likely proceed, and that there will be a quorum for actions to be taken once again.

My guess is that they are increasingly worried that the (completely accurate) accusation that John McCain is in felony violation of the law that defines his “Maverick” status will hit the main stream, so they finally decided to cut him loose, so they can sign off on McCain’s “bungee move” that he used early in the primaries to get a loan for his campaign.

Additionally, it would mean that McCain could not sign up for public financing in the general, and the board would need to sign off that too.

FWIW, the story is starting to bubble up, and he’s not doing well in fund raising anyway, so I think that the Dems should “stand on politics principal” and insist on separate votes for the FEC board members anyway…or at least drag their feet a little bit.

What I Did This Weekend, Visiting an Alien Culture

I went to visit my Mother-in-Law. Her synagogue was honoring her for the volunteer work that she has done, so we went up, along with two of my nephews.

It was a fairly nice affair, but once again, I am reminded just how alien I find Frum* culture.

From sundown on Friday to sundown on Saturday, you have the entire, no operation of things electrical, so whatever lights are on or off stay on or off (except for a couple on a timer), the stove is left on low with a plate on top of it to serve as a warmer, and light bulbs in the fridge are unscrewed.

I think that Sharon finds it all rather comforting, as this is what she grew up with, at least in her later teen years, but at synagogue, and at social events I feel as if I am from another world.

The award dinner was actually a bit better that most such events. At most orthodox weddings that I’ve been to lately, the seating at the dinner has been sex segregated, but this time, as it was not a religious event per se, we had mixed seating.

We also had the good sense this time to leave our kids with a sitter for the dinner, which had both of our stress levels a lot lower,

The interaction between Charlie’s Asperger’s and significantly sized crowds, there were 70+ people there, is frequently not good. It gets him overstimulated, much in the same way that blood in the water overstimulated.

We went to a couple of museums while were there, most notably Sunnyside, Washington Irving’s house. It’s interesting from an architectural and technological perspective, though I think I enjoyed my visits to Monticello when I was living in Charlottesville, VA more, as it was far more ambitious.

Then again, unlike Jefferson, Irving did not bankrupt himself building out his rather more modest house.

*Very orthodox culture.
Love of my life, light of the cosmos, she who must be obeyed, my wife.
As she got older, her parents became rather more observant.

When You Are Owned By Chris Matthews…

Completely owned….

Wingnut radio talk show host talks about appeasement, but he does not know what Neville Chamberlain actually did.

In fact, I don’t think he knows who Neville Chamberlain was.

When Chris Matthews owns you, you have to be completely ownable…..I’ve never been that owned so completely by my cats, and as any cat owner knows, cats pwn their human. completely and routinely.

Norway Protests: We Are Having a Real Fighter Competition

The Norwegian air force chief of staff Major General Stein Erik Nodeland is now aggressively combating the idea that Norwas has already decided to buy the F-35 JSF.

This perception is why Eurofighter pulled out of the bid about a year ago, leaving the improved Gripen as the only other competitor.

I think that if one looks at the bid process objectively, there certainly are segements of the Norwegian air defense establishment who have settled on the JSF, to the extent that they are using Lockheed-Martin F-35 powerpoint slides in their presentations, though there are indications that the some members of Parliament are not amused.

Vulture Mortgage Investing

This is a rather interesting read on a guy who is buying mortgages at about 20¢ on the dollar and using the difference to make a profit:

The homeowner was $365,000 under water after buying the house with no money down in June 2005, according to a spreadsheet listing about 30 loans for sale by a national mortgage servicer that Gutierrez referred to in his truck. If Gutierrez bought the note for 20 cents on the dollar, or $73,000, he could probably get the owner to leave by giving her $5,000 for moving expenses, then sell the home for about $150,000, well below even the neighborhood’s declining market value, he said. That would leave him a profit of about $70,000.

I’m not sure how I feel about the ethics of all this.

It seems that lenders, who should have known better, are the ones who are getting the worst haircut.

Was BAE’s Purchase of United Defense the Beginning of a Trend?

When I was working at United Defense*, the Carlyle Group sold it to the UK firm BAE, and used the proceeds to buy Dunkin Donuts.

BAE paid a significant premium in order to buy UD, because they saw it as an entry point into the US defense market.

Well, Finmeccanica has now purchased the defense electronics firm DRS Technologiesat a 32% premium for what appears to be much the same reason.

I believe that we will see more of this, particularly with the dollar weak, as the US now spends more on its military than the rest of the world combined.

Additionally, we will see many more of the joint ventures of the type that EADS and Northrop Grumman have entered into for the tanker competition.

*Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can’t hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as “technical hit man”, where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.

Revolutionary Aero Engine Concepts

Kind of a follow up to yesterday’s post, also sourced from Aviation Week (Paid Subscription Required)

Basically, these technologies involve unsteady combustion, specifically pulse detonation and wave rotors, which can, in whole or in part, use meticulously controlled combustion to replace a conventional compressor:

As with PDEs and pulse combustors, the wave rotor concept hinges on the idea of increasing the thermodynamic efficiency of the engine by producing a pressure rise during the combustion process. In conventional gas turbines, the pressure reduces as the gas is burned in the combustor, resulting in an entropy gain or a reduction in efficiency. In a wave rotor, combustion takes place via pressure waves in a confined volume within a series of tubes or channels. This means the pressure of the gas rises because combustion occurs inside a limited or constant volume, thereby increasing the overall efficiency of the engine.

Although wave rotors and PDEs both rely on detonation shock waves traveling down the length of the tube to transfer energy, the two devices use this energy in slightly different ways. The PDE allows the blast wave to exit from the device as part of the propulsive effect, while the wave rotor merges successive waves to raise the pressure of the gas before it exits to the turbine stage.

The wave rotor consists of a series of tubes or passages arranged around the axis of a cylindrical drum which rotates between two fixed end plates. The plates contain the ports, or manifolds, which control the flow of the gas through the tubes. As the drum rotates, the ends of the channels are intermittently exposed to the ports which are at different pressures. This phase shift sets up the compression and expansion waves within the tubes as the mixture is ignited. The result is an expansion wave that travels into the gas and flows out of the wave rotor combustor into the turbine inlet at a total pressure more than 20% higher than that of the air delivered by the compressor.

As a result of the pressure gain from the wave rotor, more work can theoretically be extracted from the downstream turbine, increasing overall engine thermal efficiency. A key factor is that, as the combustion is contained within the tubes of the wave rotor, the pressure rise of the gas is not accompanied by a major increase in temperature, thereby keeping levels within the limits of the standard turbine materials.

Furthermore, experiments at NASA, as part of its ultra-efficient engine technology (UEET) study, indicate that because of the rapid expansion of the pressure wave, the gas temperature spends only a short time at or near stoichiometric conditions. As these represent ideal burning conditions for the fuel-air mix, they also coincide with the greatest production of nitrogen oxides (NOx), a major pollutant and focus for aviation emissions reduction efforts.

The wave rotor has the advantage that it smooths out the pulses before feeding it into a turbine.

Additionally, NASA is looking at pulsed propulsion for launch systems.

They are looking at a variable cycle engine where at slow speeds the afterburner would be fed by core air, and and at high mach numbers, would be fed off the fan, which is vaguely similar to how the J-58 used on the SR-71 operated.

It has been suggested that a conventional afterburner be replaced with a PDE.

National Reconnaissance Office Gets Slapped Down

The NRO has, for the 2nd time in a year, “been stripped of Milestone Decision Authority on a program, which means that it no longer has the authority to sign off on a project as complying with the contract requirements.

It appears that it has been decided that the NRO, which is responsible for procurement and operation of the US spy satellite fleet, has been determined to need adult supervision.

Evolutionary Aero Engine Concepts

The May 12 issue of Aviation Week, has some interesting articles on various advanced engine technologies under development in Europe (Paid Subscription Required) under the sobriquet Newac (new aeroengine core technology).

As opposed to some of the other initiatives, such as P&W’s geared fan, this is focusing on increasing the efficiency of the core, not the fan.

A basic description of the technologies that they are looking at are very aggressive active clearance management between the case and the turbine blades to minimize losses, the use of intercooling (blue in picture above) and heat exchangers (green in picture above) increase turbine inlet temperatures while keeping flame temperatures lower (less NOx, also called “exhaust heat recuperation”), and aggressive management of cooling air to minimize losses.

The intercooling and recuperation are actually not new technology, they have been used in stationary turbines for years, but its application to aero engines is new.

More on the Thielert Collapse

Daimond is looking at developing its own aircraft diesel engine as an alternative to the Thielert engine, as a result of of the Bankruptcy of the engine manufacturer, and Cessna has delayed its turbodiesel Skyhawk.

I’m still not sure what was involved, the founder of the company was terminated for some sort of accounting shenanigans, and I’m not sure what, though some of the comments in the various aviation fan boards there are indications that the company was getting hosed by warranty claims.

Freddie Mac Using Funny Accounting…Only I’m Not Laughing

It appears that Freddie Mac has made some significant changes to its accounting system, to the tune of 2.6 billion dollars.

“They put a lot of lipstick on this pig including several accounting changes that have given them a one time step-up,” said Josh Rosner, an analyst at independent research firm Graham Fisher & Co. in New York.

Only they are implicitly backed by the taxpayers.

Once again, it’s, “Level 3 assets, a category that indicates the holdings are so illiquid that they can only be priced using the firm’s own valuation models.”

There’s that word again, illiquid. And it’s the valuation model for level 3 assets that got us into this mess.

They’ve just found a pile of crap, and concluded that there is a pony beneath.

Why Mortgage Lenders Don’t Negotiate With Distessed Home Owners

The answer is because they actually have no contact with those homeowners.

Most interaction on the loan is being done by servicers who were hired to process payments, not the holder of the loan. It’s a fairly low margin business, 0.25% of the principal, and a lot of the profit is in things like late fees, etc.

They don’t negotiate because their skin is not in the game, and because it is more profitable for them not to negotiate.

Capitalism 101.

Future Combat System Facing Funding Cut

The House Armed Services Committee is sticking with the 5% cut in funding recommended by the Airland Subcommittee, and it’s likely that the house as a whole will stick with the cut.

Good idea. While some of the technologies are intriguing, the program as a whole is bloated, over ambitious, over budget, and over schedule.

Full disclosure, I worked on FCS from 2003-2006.*

*Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can’t hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as “technical hit man”, where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.

Finding a Solution, and Applying it to Narrowly

In looking at the role of speculation on oil prices, a Senate committee is looking at increasing margin requirements:

“I think there’s an orgy of speculation that we ought to be deciding to do something about,” said Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-North Dakota.

He and others raised the idea of changing the margin or amount investors must pay up front in order to engage in oil speculation. It would be a hugely significant change in financial markets. Dorgan said stock speculation requires a 50% margin, but commodities like oil demand a much lower threshold, just 5% or 7%.

If you look at the credit crunch generally, the real problem is excessive leverage. Margins should be raised to the 75% range, where they were for stocks before the Fed cut them around 1980, and they should be applied to all investments.