Month: May 2008

On Hillary Clinton’s Bats$#@ Insane Comments

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I read Clinton’s comments, and thought that they were really, REALLY, stupid.

Yesterday, I saw Olbermann’s comments, and while I agree with his basic take on the comments, that they were a very, very bad thing, I think that he was plainly overwrought.

With the possible exception of an editorial board meeting of the National Review, Olbermann’s MSNBC is perhaps the most intense pool of Hillary hatred in the media, though it is not an isolated phenomenon, you hear complaints about this everywhere from the local paper to NPR.*

So I’ve been thinking about it for the past 24 hours, and I’ve finally got a bit of a take on what she said, and the reaction to it among the traditional and internet political commentariat.

First and formost, this something that we are ALL thinking about. Every one of us, and we are unwilling to say it aloud, because it terrifies us.

Simply put, there are thousands of people who are looking at their guns, and wondering if they should, “Stop that uppity n***er“, and we all know that.

I don’t think that Hillary should have said this…I don’t think that anyone should have said this.

What’s more, I don’t think that any Democrat should have even made an Eagleton reference.

Her explanation, that, People have been trying to push her out of the race since Iowa, is factually true, and may explain but does not justify her comments.

As strange as it seems, I think that she is not talking about Bill Clinton in 1992, nor was she really talking about the assassination of JFK. She was talking about Eugene McCarthy†, who by most objective measures “won” the 1968 nomination process, after RFK was killed, at least the primaries, only to have it pried from him by the party bosses.

So this is where I think that statement came from, but that don’t make it right.

*This is why Clinton’s 3am ad was called racist, as was the statement that the nomination is for President (aka LBJ), and not leader of a civil rights movement (MLK), because I think that a lot of people inside and outside of the media, including Tweety, Pumpkin Head, and Olberman were looking for a reason to hate her.
†Truth be told, after losing McCarthy’s behavior showed him to be an embarrassment to the party and the nation **cough** World Series **cough**, and I don’t think that Hillary Clinton will do that.

Lockheed Patents ‘Spooky Radar’

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It’s years away from fruition, but it appears that Lockheed has secured on a radar that uses quantum entanglement.

Basically, under some conditions in quantum mechanics, two particles are linked, instantaneously at significant distances from one another.

Makes my head hurt, which I stick to the larger world, where Newtonian mechanics serve just fine.

Anywoo, those of you who are more into this can go to Wired’s Danger Room for a more complete set of links, but the money quote from the patent applicstion appears to be this:

The ability to propagate radar signals at frequencies that are independent of the resolution frequency may allow quantum radar system 100 to attain near zero attenuation rates in the atmosphere, and greatly diminished attenuation rates in other media including foliage, building materials, earthen layers, etc. Quantum radar system 100, thus, can be adapted to visualize useful target details through background and/or camouflaging clutter, through plasma shrouds around hypersonic air vehicles, through the layers of concealment hiding underground facilities, IEDs, mines, and other threats–all while operating from an airborne platform or other suitable platform. Quantum radar system 100 may also improve the performance of advanced image processing and pattern recognition systems, as well as defeat most RF signature management systems when the propagation frequency is tuned to the resonant wave length of the target.

Airbus A350 Updates

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We have some rumors that the A350 is significantly overweight, to the tune of about 8 tonnes.

I’m inclined to believe that it is overweight at this point, much of the work in development at this point is about refining the design and saving weight, but 8 tonnes on an aircraft with an empty weight somewhere around of 105 tonnes, even at this relatively early stage, seems to be excessive.

Related to this, Airbus is announcing that it will be able to, “finalise the A350 XWB’s ‘aero-lines’” in July, but that it will continue to “refine” the wing of the A350-1000, the largest, and last to be delivered, variant over the next two years.

Airbus is claiming no “major” changes for the -1000 wing, simply mods to the pylons and the high lift devices (flaps and slats), but with 20% greater max gross weight, I’m inclined that some more significant differences may creep in over the next 2 years.

Indian AWACS

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You have a report on India’s efforts to improve its surveillance and command control assets, where they appear to be heading towards a two tiered system.

First they are developing an AWACS system based on the IL-76/A-50 with Israel’s phased array Phalcon system in a conventional, though non-rotating dome:

They are also looking at procuring a smaller, somewhat less capable system, likely the EMB 145 Erieye:

The theory here is that this allows them to have more assets available at any given time, with the more capable assets only needing to be deployed where the improved capabilities (range, endurance, and more radar operators) are required.

Spirit AeroSystems Snags Airbus A350 Fuselage Section 15

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Sprint just signed a contract with Airbus to design and build this component. (See picture below)

The kicker is that until 2005, Spirit was Boeing, but they spun the company off to appease shareholders, and now the expertise, including experience with the complex composite structures it developed for the 787, will be benefiting Airbus.

Boeing’s aircraft’s current business model appears to be similar to the Lead System Integrator (LSI) concept that has consistently underperformed in all of its large defense related contracts so badly that Congress is looking to ban the practice.

Are Fannie and Freddie Going to Go Belly Up, and Will We Bail Them Out

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Remembering that the GSEs are, after the US Government, the 2nd and 3rd largest borrowers in the world, one wonders if they are in trouble, if so, how badly, and what happens if things go pear shaped.

Read it, and take your time to absorb the information. It is a primer, but is by no means simple.

The basic rundown is that:

  • The GSEs are not insolvent yet
  • The taxpayers would have to bail them out if they were
  • Unless things get much worse, they will hold onto their AAA ratings.
  • Their level 3 (no is sure what they are worth) asset exposure is actually pretty light.
  • Their accounting may be a little bit more than one would like.

The question he doesn’t answer, and that neither he nor I can answer, is how much worse things will get, and whether the GSEs will need a bailout as a result.

Me, I’m a bear.

The End of the US as World Colossus

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Kevin Phillips suggests that the United States may be facing a collapse of empire, as Holland did in the 1700s, and Britain did in the first half of the 1900s:

There is a considerable literature on these earlier illusions and declines. Reading it, one can argue that imperial Spain, maritime Holland and industrial Britain shared a half-dozen vulnerabilities as they peaked and declined: a sense of things no longer being on the right track, intolerant or missionary religion, military or imperial overreach, economic polarization, the rise of finance (displacing industry) and excessive debt. So too for today’s United States.

…

The most chilling parallel with the failures of the old powers is the United States’ unhealthy reliance on the financial sector as the engine of its growth. In the 18th century, the Dutch thought they could replace their declining industry and physical commerce with grand money-lending schemes to foreign nations and princes. But a series of crashes and bankruptcies in the 1760s and 1770s crippled Holland’s economy. In the early 1900s, one apprehensive minister argued that Britain could not thrive as a “hoarder of invested securities” because “banking is not the creator of our prosperity but the creation of it.” By the late 1940s, the debt loads of two world wars proved the point, and British global economic leadership became history.

He then makes the caveat that the predictions of doom for Great Britain started well before any collapse, with peaks in such concerns in the 1860s and 1890s, when the collapse of empire was primarily a post 1918 phenomenon.

It’s a valid point, but we are operating on internet time, and the degree of leverage is further, and capital is far more mobile.

He also notes that we have already experienced periods where the fall of America was predicted, in the early 1970s, and the early 1990s.

I’m a bear, as I’ve repeatedly noted, and I’ve noted that a number of factors, particularly the rise of the Euro as an alternative reserve currency, make make it much more likely that the US will lose its status as the financial capitol of the world.

Go read the whole article. It’s only about 1200 words.

Knitting Needles of Mass Destruction

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It appears that a avid knitter has posted patterns online for various Dr. Who characters, and got a trademark takedown notice from the BBC.

It should be noted that trademark, unlike copyright for instance, is not for the benefit of the holder, but for the benefit of the consumer, to avoid confusion between products.

In fact, there is a specific exemption on this issue:

So, not only could Mazzmatazz potentially defend against the BBC takedown notice by claiming that her reinterpretation of the monster figures from the show is just that — a creative reinterpretation that doesn’t infringe any trademark, she might also be able to turn around and go after the people who used her pattern to create and sell little monster dollies on eBay. She could, in sum, achieve a win-win. That is, if the entire situation weren’t so ludicrous to begin with. After all, are the “unscrupulous individuals” who used the pattern that Mazzmatazz herself posted online to knit Doctor Who dolls and sell them online really making significant enough revenue that the BBC itself should be threatened?

I think that we have two lines, the the first IP lawyers and license holders insisting, either through legislation, regulation, and court precedent on an increasingly expansive definition of what is covered and what is prohibited, and the public and the political class, who are increasingly concerned about the degree to which this is being taken.

I think that the turning point was BlackBerry v. NTP, because when the Judge issued an injunction, BlackBerry’s (in retrospect remarkably savvy) response was that it could not separate government and commercial users, and so it would shut down the entire network, which included many members of Congress and Federal Judges, along with most of the Congressional aides and court clerks.

When the movers and shakers in IP regulation were going to be bitten, and bitten hard, on this, suddenly NTP’s demands became more reasonable, but the seed of doubt on IP triumphalism was sown.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani Issues Fatwah Allowing Armed Resistance Against US Troops

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This is rather significant, and I agree with M. Duss his explicit approval of anti-US violance is being driven by the criticism he has invreasingly recieved about his silence regarding the brutality of American tactics.

Juan Cole goes rather deeper into what is going on, and notes that Sistani’s relative silence may very well be driven by the consequences of the Shiite uprising in 1920, which had the British putting Sunnis firmly in power as a proxies.

As noted here his Fatwas have seen very limited release, basically face to face with no real record of them otherwise.

If it gets more vocal, not only will US forces have to leave, but it will look like the evacuation of Saigon.

John McCain, Not So Cancer Free

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Though the title of the story, McCain appears cancer-free, healthy, would imply otherwise.

McCain’s most recent exams show a range of health issues common in aging: He frequently has precancerous skin lesions removed, and in February had an early stage squamous cell carcinoma, an easily cured skin cancer, removed. He had benign colon growths called polyps taken out during a routine colonoscopy in March.

There’s a campaign slogan: John McCain: Cancer Free Since February.

30 Former Officials Became Corporate Monitors – NYTimes.com

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Over the past few years, Bush and His Evil Minions™ have aggressively expanded a program called, “deferred prosecutions” where the companies avoid a court case by paying a fine and agreeing to supervision.

Well, it now appears that in addition to helping along one goal of the Bush adminsitration, slaps on the wrist for corporate law breakers, they have gotten a twofer by creating lucrative private contracts for former political allys, in the form of “corporate monitors”.

You may recall that John Ashcroft got a $52,000,000.00 contract to do this, for example.

Economics Update

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The employment data is done for the week, so we have energy news, where Oil, after breaking $135/bbl then settling around #131, is now back above $132/bbl, and gas prices are trending up again, though some of the latter is no doubt due to the upcoming 3 day weekend.

The dollar is trending down against all major currencies, hitting $1.5755:€1.0000, a bit below the $1.60 record, but not by much.

In real estate, we have existing home sales falling 1% in April, no signs of the foreclosure rate abating, and inventories soaring.

Is it any wonder that mortgage lenders are tightening standards to where they were a few deccades back?

This credit tightening is going to take an economy already in recession*, and throw it down a well.

On the brighter side, it appears that the municipal bond market has finally shaken itself out a bit, recovering from the auction rate security implosion of a few months back.

*Yes, I know that it’s not official yet, but we know the reality when it bites us on the ass.