Weekly unemployment claims fell 5000 to 381,000 from the week before, though predictions had been for 375,000. It’s noisy, but the number is still too damn high, even if the leading indicators are up for the 3rd straight month (though not by much).

I would be more concerned that the Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey by the Federal Reserve went down when the experts predicted an improvement. (As Philly goes, so goes the nation’s economy, at least that’s how the Fed sees it).

Energy news was generally good though. Oil dropped because the Chinese are going to stop subsidising retail gasoline and diesel purchases, which should reduce demand considerably, and retail gasoline prices fell for the 3rd day in a row to $4.073 a gallon.

For some reason, the dollar fell too, though conventional wisdom would say that it should have risen.

On a day to day basis, there is more noise than data, you get a better picture on (at least) a weekly look.

In any case, I would not be hoping for a quick real estate turn around. Mortgage rates just hit a 9 month high, and all indications are that it will go higher, particularly since Triad Guaranty’s mortgage insurance subsidiary is shutting down, which is the first time that I’ve heard about a mortgage insurer shutting down.

If this becomes more common, it will force mortgage rates up, and home sales and prices further down.

But it wouldn’t be fair for me to talk about insurers without talking about the monoline insurers, who are insolvent, but still have AAA ratings from the agencies…at least from some of the agencies.

Ambac Financial, the second largest of the monoline insurers, is terminating its contract with Fitch Ratings, because Fitch dropped their ratings.

They are the 4th monoliner to drop a ratings agency because they don’t like the truth, and it screams out for meaningful regulation.