Month: June 2008

This is Where His Habit of Missing Contentious Votes Will Bite Him In the Ass

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Obama missed the vote on the Kyl-Lieberman amendment, which declared the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist group, and McCain is hammering him on it.

If he had voted against it, I don’t think that it would be a big deal, but he missed the vote, and he has done so on a number of other contentious votes, the MoveOn resolution comes to mind.

If McCain hammers him on the substance, that he opposed the resolution, it shouldn’t be a difficulty, as Obama spokesperson Hari Sevugan response shows, “Instead of recognizing reality, John McCain continues to run on a platform of doubling down on George Bush’s failed policies.”

However, if McCain starts harping on the contentious votes where he did not show up, and makes his attendance an issue, it is a problem, because it strikes at the core message of any presidential candidate, that he will stand up for you.

So far, so good, but I expect this worm to turn shortly.

Economics Update

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Well, retail gas prices set a new record high again, $3.978/gallon, making 26 new records in 27 days, and yesterday was flat, even though oil fell just under $4 to $123.99/bbl, and it’s $11.19 lower than the record on May 22.

Lehman is expected to post a loss of around 1/3 billion, and is making noises about selling more stock to raise about $4 billion in capital, which has driven the dollar down a bit.

The fact that the dollar has fallen today is odd, given that Bernanke has said that he is concerned about the weak dollar and that further rate cuts are unlikely, both of which should serve to strengthen the dollar, at least in the short term.

In the mean time the Fed shoveled another $75 billion to banks as a part of their sh&^pile for cash scheme, so perhaps someone is noticing the sound of printing presses at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing going to warp 9.

Finally, we have Thornburg Mortgage delaying its earnings report to the SEC, which in these times almost always means bad news.

Bush Dog Going After Lautenberg on Age in NJ Senate Primary

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I hope that Lautenberg wins, because Robert Andrews is a real faux Democrat, but it was forseeable that Lautenberg’s age would be an issue on this. He’s 84 years old.

Why the cleared the field for him, leaving only a right wing puke who aggressively lobbied for votes for every Bush war resolution, voted on behalf of big pharma, against unions in trade deals, for “defense contractor sweetheart deals for retiring military officers”, and against rolling back the Bush tax cuts. (see here)

Lautenberg is a bit too old for the Senate, and Andrews is way too evil for the Senate.

Lovely choice for NJ Dems today.

Rasmussen has Lautenberg with a significant lead, but still under 50%, which is worrying.

Enough is Bloody Enough!

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Let me start by saying that I am not a fan of Barack Obama. He want to the bottom of my preferred nominee list in October, so I understand the imperative that some pro-Clinton bloggers feel on this issue.

There has clearly been a lot of misogyny in the campaign, both on the part of the blogosphere and the MSM, and calling both groups out on this is justified.

Furthermore, the sort of Teflon he has experienced with the MSM is something appropriate to discuss.

That being said, there are differences in how this is handled, with folks like BTD and Jerylyn being generally fairly well reasoned and calm, with Taylor Marsh being over the top with alarming regularly, though not universally, and Larry Johnson being completely batsh%$ insane to the degree that he is quoting former Nixon dirty trickster, and wife swapper, Roger Stone.

It’s OK not to like Obama, and to see him as either weak or lacking in candor (or both).

I do, and have ever since he threw gays under the bus in South Carolina.

But this does not mean that you pick up anything scrawled on a bathroom wall, and run with it.

And in the Other War that Bush is Losing

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The leader of the Pakistani Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud, just held a news conference to show that he was in charge:

The impunity of Mehsud’s behavior has outraged the administration of George W. Bush, which is pressing the Pakistani government to arrest and prosecute him.

But the Pakistani government, which at times has considered Mehsud an ally and is now fearful of his power, appears reluctant to hunt him down. Days before his news conference, Pakistani forces pulled back from his realm in South Waziristan as part of the peace deals.

Yes, Bush and His Evil Minions™ are losing two wars simultaneously, not just one, as evidenced by the press conference of the man who likely whacked Benazir Bhutto.

What Publius Said

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Whatever you think of the candidates, Publius is spot on when he says that this primary season has shown that the current nominating process is completely broken.

In previous years, where you were left with what was effectively one candidate standing by the time the primaries were half over, never stressed the current system, and now that we have two very closely matched candidates, it’s showing its problems.

His first suggestion, that Iowa & New Hampshire get their “first in the nation” ticket pulled, is a good start, and probably fixes more than anything else, because it gives all the states a chance to be relevant and receive attention.

As to “rotating regional calendar”, I favor the rotating, but the regional thing I’m not so sure about. You want an opportunity for low dollar candidates to compete early.

He also suggests dumping caucuses entirely, but I’m ambivalent on this. You have to have the opportunity to measure the activist response, because these people are going to be the foot soldiers of the election.

As to killing the Superdelegates, I agree. It’s clear that they don’t work.

I would add that the option of adding some sort of “first past the post/winner take all aspect”, even if it’s only a portion of the delegates per congressional district, would be a good idea.

Another Corporate Voice Challenges Employment Stats

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This time, it’s Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris, who made news last week when they announced across the board price increases, says that, “he thinks the U.S. is underestimating the level of inflation in the economy and he expects the rise in energy costs is beginning to destroy demand.”

The “demand destroying” will become even more true when interests rates finally rise.

Another part of the unsustainably low rates that created the mess that Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan made.

The New York Times Does Not Get It, Employment Edition

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The New York Times notes that there is a labor shortage in Iowa, and says that, Remedies are not simple. Companies want to be in Iowa because wages are lower than elsewhere in the nation or region, except South Dakota. But low wages also drive young college graduates out of the state, especially as student debt loads have risen, and they discourage workers from other states from moving to Iowa.”

The remedy is tough to find, and in the very next sentences the source of the problem is found: there is a worker shortage in Iowa because wages are too low.

Employers are subject to the same laws of supply and demand as everywhere else.

If they want wages to be more competitive, then they need to tighten up their minimum wage laws ($300K turnover and 90 days without a minimum wage don’t help), and revoke the state’s right to work laws so that unions can organize more efficiently.

H/T Dean Baker‘s Beat the Press.

Putin: Russia Opposed to NATO Expansion in Principle

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This statement is not in any way surprising. The Russians, and the Soviet Union before them, have always seen NATO as a spear pointed at them.

That is why they demanded, and got, promises that following the reunification of Germany that there would be no eastward expansion of NATO.

Unfortunately, this promise was promptly ignored, and countries have been added to NATO with abandon, and the Russians see this as a ring of steel intended to threaten and pacify them.

There is nothing that has contributed to the bellicose nature of current Russian foreign policy as much. They are completely justified in seeing this as a threat and a provocation.

First FCS NLOS- C Howitzer to be Unveiled

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This is, I think, the only variant of the FCS manned ground vehicle (FCS-MGV) at all likely to see large scale production.

The artillery Mafia in the Army have been clamoring for a replacement for the M109 Paladin for years, and the downsides of the FCS-MGV in a counter-insurgency scenario really do not apply to this vehicle, as a self propelled Howitzer should never be in a position where it would be in close contact with the populace.

That being said, it would have been far cheaper to buy something from our European allies.

The Real Problem with Nuclear Power: Too Damn Expensive

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This fact comes as no surprise to me. I work in nuclear power, on end of life and spent fuel issues, and this is something that costs a lot of money, and is rarely even quoted in the price of a plant.

So, even without considering that US plants inevitable delays and cost overruns (the French have their act together better), nuclear power is not economically viable without massive government subsidies.

Looks Like the Iraqis May Kill Bush’s “Iraq Forever” Deal

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It turns out that almost every political party in Iraq hates it, including the largest party in parliament, the ISCI, the Iranian stooges party, oppose it too, “Officials from the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, an important Maliki ally, said several parts of the proposal violated Iraq’s sovereignty.”

This is not surprising:

The Americans want to continue to have “a free hand” to arrest Iraqis and carry out military operations, and they want authority for more than 50 long-term military bases, Mr. Adeeb said. He said that he doubted that a security pact along the lines sought by the Americans would pass in the Iraqi Parliament.

Mr. Abadi, another senior member of Dawa, said Americans were insisting on keeping control of Iraqi airspace and retaining legal immunity for American troops, contractors and private security guards.

The US is claiming that this is “Iranian disinformation”, and ambassador Crocker is saying that, “the agreement will not establish permanent bases in Iraq, and we anticipate that it will expressly forswear them”, but Bush already said that no agreement is permanent, in a thousand years of so something might change.

It’s also noted that Iraqi leaders are dubious about negotiating with a lame duck president, so come January 1, 2009, when the UN authorizations expire, both mercenaries contractors and US troops will be subject to Iraqi courts.

Titanic — Deck Chairs

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Deutsche Bank asset management devision is looking to, “repackaging their home-loan bonds into new securities without creating collateralized debt obligations, which are being shunned by investors“.

They are called REMICs, are real estate mortgage investment conduits:

REMICs are real estate mortgage investment conduits, the tax-exempt vehicles used to turn mortgages into bonds by passing payments from the loans to different investors in varying orders of priority or at different times. Re-REMICs repackage some of those securities or a single class into new bonds in which payments are also directed in different ways.

I’m not seeing a difference here. It appears to me that they are putting a new wrapper on the big sh$#pile, as Atrios is wont to call it, and calling it George.

Geoff Fieger Acquitted in Politically Motivated Trial

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It appears that the US attorney scandal is bearing bitter fruit, and that the defense’s suggestions that this was a politically motivated prosecution found favor with the jury as a result. Feiger was found not guilty of felony campaign finance violations.

Unfortunately, once destroyed, faith in the Department of Justice will not come back simply through regime change, so public corruption charges will be difficult to prosecute for many years to come.

Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn Suggests Permanent Access for Wall Street

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This seems to be a day for very stupid ideas.

Kohn is suggesting that the cash for the big sh&^ pile program be continued, “as long as regulators tighten oversight of the companies.”

A better ideal would be to apply anti-trust to make the investment banks small enough to be small enough to fail.

Constant bailouts would be norm under the system proposed, because financial experts have an unlimited capability to delude themselves that, “This time is different“.

We do not want the Fed, and thus the taxpayer, to be supporting the gut instincts of a Harvard MBA whiz kid.

Former German FM Posits Israeli Attack on Iran

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Joschka Fischer, former German Foreign Minister, is writing that he expects an Israeli military strike on Iran.

It was linked to on Nouriel Roubini’s blog, and he goes into the potential economic/political implications:

  • Oil Spiking to well over $200/bbl.
  • Iran setting their dogs loose in Iraq.
  • Hesbollah going postal in Lebanon.
  • Hamas going postal in Gaza.
  • Difficulties in transiting the Persian Gulf, which might further increase oil prices.

While I agree that these consequences are likely, I disagree with Roubini on one point though, thinks that such an attack would guarantee a McCain victory, because he believes that, “Such October surprise by Israel would also certainly lead to the election of McCain and defeat of Obama as a national security crisis of such an extent would doom the chances of Democrats to win the White House.”

There are two problems, the first is that if the Israelis act after the conventions, it will be explicitly seen as meddling in US partisan politics, and the blow back later will be too intense, and the Israelis understand the ebb and flow of party politics, and the second is that $200/bbl oil would do immediate damage at the gas pump.

Further, I think that Republicans no longer have the confidence of the American people on anything including national security.

Then again, maybe I am an optimist.