The Bush administration is entering into a series of new contracts for training of Iraqi security forces and another to provide food to the US prisons there.
Seems to me that this is another attempt to lock the US into the Iraq forever.
Month: June 2008
Really, Really, Really, Really Bad Ideas, The Juxtaposition of Border Security and Copyright Edition
The newest leaked draft of the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA) is proposing that border security will have the ability to inspect digital devices, determine whether they contain “infringing material”, and then confiscate them.
So if you have MP3’s on your iPod leally ripped from you CD, they get to confiscate it without any due processas, “The draft allows for the confiscation or destruction of any device the agents deem suspect.”
The draft is available at WikiLeaks.
Times Ombud Evicerates Times OP/ED Editor
Clark Hoyt reviews Edward Luttwak’s OP/ED in the New York Times, and finds that his observations have nothing to do with the truth when he said that Barack Obama would be considered an apostate who deserved death under Islamic law.
The Times Op-Ed page, quite properly, is home to a lot of provocative opinions. But all are supposed to be grounded on the bedrock of fact. Op-Ed writers are entitled to emphasize facts that support their arguments and minimize others that don’t. But they are not entitled to get the facts wrong or to so mangle them that they present a false picture.
….
I interviewed five Islamic scholars, at five American universities, recommended by a variety of sources as experts in the field. All of them said that Luttwak’s interpretation of Islamic law was wrong.
David Shipley, the editor of the Op-Ed page, said Luttwak’s article was vetted by editors who consulted the Koran, associated text, newspaper articles and authoritative histories of Islam. No scholars of Islam were consulted because “we do not customarily call experts to invite them to weigh in on the work of our contributors,” he said.
That’s a pity in this case, because it might have sparked a discussion about whether Luttwak’s categorical language was misleading, at best.
Interestingly, in defense of his own article, Luttwak sent me an analysis of it by a scholar of Muslim law whom he did not identify. That scholar also did not agree with Luttwak that Obama was an apostate or that Muslim law would prohibit punishment for any Muslim who killed an apostate. He wrote, “You seem to be describing some anarcho-utopian version of Islamic legalism, which has never existed, and after the birth of the modern nation state will never exist.”
….
Shipley, the Op-Ed editor, said he regretted not urging Luttwak to soften his language about possible assassination, given how sensitive the subject is. But he said he did not think the Op-Ed page was under any obligation to present an alternative view, beyond some letters to the editor.
I do not agree. With a subject this charged, readers would have been far better served with more than a single, extreme point of view. When writers purport to educate readers about complex matters, and they are arguably wrong, I think The Times cannot label it opinion and let it go at that.
Emphasis mine.
The way that I read this, he is calling out David Shipley, and not Edward Luttwak. While he clearly states that Luttwak is speaking from profound ignorance, his main beef is with the NY times OP/ED page, and he is saying that is a disgrace that they let this sh%$ show up on their pages.
Economics Update
The current estimates for may have payrolls dropping by somewhere around 60,000. This number is rather more indicative than the unemployment rate, since those who have given up are not counted for the latter.
To my mind, the percentage of the population working is probably the best number, at least when compared to the BLS which increasingly appears to employ Tinkerbell as their chief statistician.
It’s been a busy time for real estate. We have The Economist noting that house prices are falling even faster than during the great depression, which is worse than it sounds, because we had deflation during the depression, which means that houses are falling even faster in real terms, see the pretty picture:
We are alsoseeing prices fall for houses above $5 million, the NY Daily News is declaring New York to be a renters’ market, and foreclosures in Boston 45% of all housing transactions are foreclosures.
What’s more, the popping of the real estate bubble is now now hitting property taxes, as counties raise rates to account for falling property values and foreclosures.
It’s no wonder that mortgage defaults are surging.
In energy, oil is still below the record, but oil increased to $128.25/bbl, though, for the first time in 25 days, gas did not hit a new record.
Gas didn’t fall either though, it stayed at Sunday’s level.
The dollar has strengthened somewhat, because the markets are expecting a Fed rate hike, which I doubt, given that the election is 6 months away.
In the real economy, the ISM manufacturing index increased to 49.6, the consensus was that it would fall to 48.0, but this is not good news, just less bad news, since any number under 50 is still a contraction.
In banking, S&P have noticed that some of the major investment banks are using funny accounting on their assets, and so they have cut the ratings or outlooks on Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citi, and JPMorgan Chase.
It’s no wonder bank losses are expanding, and you have the Financial Times wondering how much bank failures are likely to increase as more debt goes bad.
On the good news side of the equation, it appears that Wachovia has had a case of temporary sanity, and they fired CEO Kennedy Thompson after hemorrhaging profits and stock price over the last year.
Hopefully, there will be no golden parachute for him.
Rememberance: Steve Gilliard
The folks at Group News Blog have a remembrance far better than I could write.
It’s been a year since he died, and I miss him.
He was a brilliant polemicist and had an encyclopedic knowledge history, which was why he was spot on in Iraq.
I had always thought that if I were to run for office, I would want him, Paul T. Riddell, and Alexei Sayle to be my speech writers.
This is why I would never be elected dog-catcher in the US. Outraged truth telling does not net one votes.
I miss him a lot.
The Beginning of Executive Accountability?
It’s nice that shareholder activists are foing after undeserved executive compensation:
Almost one in five HSBC shareholders refused yesterday to back a controversial executive pay scheme that could see the bank’s top six executives pocket up to £120m over three years.
Shareholder after shareholder at a lengthy and at times fractious meeting in London brought up the subject of the huge bonuses that could be paid at HSBC despite the drop in the bank’s share price and a multibillion-dollar write-down from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.
“You have been paid a salary; your bonus is not for losing money, which you have consistently done,” one shareholder told the chairman, Stephen Green. “You and the rest of the board have caused misery to millions of people and yet you are there with your hands out taking everything you can … how much is enough?”
I would hope that this becomes more common, and more effective (the activists got 18% of the vote).
This is crony capitalism at its worst.
Kennedy Going in For Surgery
On the radio, so sorry, no link, but Kennedy will undergo brain surgery at Duke medical center, and then get chemo and radiation at Mass General
Steven Pearlstein Gets the Economy
In his article, which I recommend that you all read, The Fading of the Mirage Economy, he nails what is going on in the first three paragraphs:
Suddenly, it seems, we’re getting hit from all directions.
Energy and food prices are soaring. The housing market continues to collapse. Government revenue is falling, and taxes are rising. Airlines are jacking up fares and fees while reducing service. Banks are pulling credit lines. Auto companies are cutting production once again. Even investment bankers are losing their jobs.
The tendency is to see these as separate developments, each with its own causes and dynamic. Fundamentally, however, they are all part of the same story — the story of the global economy purging itself of large and unsustainable imbalances that for a time allowed many Americans to think they were richer than they really were.
I disagree on one point. I do not think that this was some sort of random confluence of events.
I think that this has been mainstream economic policy for the past 28 years. It is the gradual removal of wealth from the bottom 90+% and its transfer to those at the top, with free, easy, and increasingly unregulated credit and credit markets to create the temporary illusion of a high standard of living.
The goal was to create debt peonage, to make our society less like the industrialized world, and more like Mexico.
Commodity Regulator to Scrutinize Markets
It appears taht the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is looking toward an investigation to see if market arbitrage has artificially inflated prices, while this is not regulation, the results of the study may result in new regulations.
In particular, they are looking at the role of commodities index funds on this process.
Interestingly enough, this was not brought on by the oil price run up, but by spikes in cotton prices, which have increased despite events which ordinarily would have lowered prices.
As a part of moving toward greater regulation of the commodities market, Senators Levin and Feinstein are moving toward granting the CFTC explicit regulatory authority on trades on the London Oil Bourse executed from the US, on the basis of the fact that the exchange has physical terminals here.
Obama Resigns from Trinity United Church of Christ
I am not sure as to whether his resignation is a good or a bad thing.
Obviously, the church has embarrassed him repeatedly, but there is the question as to whether he is acquiescing to the Republican bitch slap theory of politics, where they launch an attack not to tell the truth, but to make the Democrat back down, which makes the voters wonder whether he will stand up for them.
I’m inclined to think that it is a losing proposition, because he was 20 years. The Republicans will both claim that it’s the “real Barack Obama”, and that he lacks the guts to stick with the church where he was married and his daughters baptized.
U.S. Consumer Confidence at 28 Year Low
What the average consumer understands, and the average financial journalist does not, that something very wrong is going on here.
Kennedy Will Not Be At Senate This Week
It appears that he will be convalescing. I’m not sure what this means in terms of his prognosis.
The Latest in the US Gulags, Prison Ships
Delightful. They are now apparently using prison ships outside of territorial waters in order to avoid the scrutiny of human rights activists:
The United States is operating “floating prisons” to house those arrested in its war on terror, according to human rights lawyers, who claim there has been an attempt to conceal the numbers and whereabouts of detainees.
….
The analysis, due to be published this year by the human rights organisation Reprieve, also claims there have been more than 200 new cases of rendition since 2006, when President George Bush declared that the practice had stopped.
The Hague, bitches, the Hague.
Bush and His Evil Minions™ need to spend the rest of their lives in foreign prisons under the international criminal court. It’s the only way that this can be resolved now, because we lack the political will to prosecute this ourselves.
P&W Geared Turbofan Demonstrator Finishes Ground Testing
It has been cleared for test flights on Pratt’s 747SP testbed.
Foreclosure Phil
Mother Jones has a very good article on how Phil Gramm is at the center of every major financial scandal of the past decade.
Basically, if you see a financial collapse, Phil Gramm changed the law to make it possible.
And this guy is McCain’s economic guru.
It’s a good read.
Delusional Navy Budgets
The navy is looking for $25 billion per year, about double current spending, on its 30 year plan for a 313 ship navy.
The problem is that everyone knows that this is not unsustainable, and their procurement programs are a mess, with the DDG-1000 costing over $5 billion a ship (the Navy claiming “only” $3.3 billion), the Littoral Combat Ship program being a disaster, with costs going from $220 Million/ship to over $500 million/ship, increasing maintenance costs as the Ticonderogas and the Burkes get older, etc.
The article goes into more detail, but it appears increasingly clear that the Navy does not have a clear vision of what it needs to be or to do over the nest 30 years.
Daimond Aircraft/Thielert Engine Update
Daimond aircraft announced its new Austro Engine AE300 2.0 170hp diesel, which uses the same Mercedes diesel based block as the Thielert engine, to replace Thielert’s Centurion engine at the ILA 2008 air show.
The comments from Christian Dries, chief executive of Diamond, were very informative:
Why did we start our own engine development programme? Answering his own question, Dries said: “Well, it was not our intention to invest €40m in the factory, I’d rather have saved the money. But the TBO of the Centurion 2.0 was becoming very short. It would almost be cheaper to operate with a twin turboprop…”
On a potential certification date, Dries says: “As soon as possible. As you can see it’s close. It has to be if we are flying three aircraft into the show on them.
From the article, it is clear that the negotiations between Diamond and Thielert have been contentious, and I’m inclined to take Diamond’s side, as we now have reports that the bankruptcy administrator is gouging on parts that were covered by warranty:
Now comes Kuebler [the bankruptcy administrator] to revise the rules in such a way as to leave owners not just in the cold, but with virtually no financial support of any kind. We’re told that as of mid-May, a Thielert 2.0 diesel still costs about 33,000 Euros or just over $52,000. That sounds like a huge sum and it is– twice the cost of a Lycoming overhaul for equivalent horsepower. But the diesel’s fuel specifics are favorable enough to offset the higher cost over an avgas engine on a lifecycle basis. Or at least they used to be.
Now, Thielert no longer warrants the engines or parts. When you come up on the 300-hour gearbox requirement, they’ll sell you a new one at $16,000 or an inspected one for $7800—if you wire the money to Germany upfront and arrange for your own shipping. On your Maalox-powered run to the 1000-hour TBR, you get to do that three times, plus the cost of the pumps, alternator, shipping and who knows what else. If you go to 2400 hours on the new 2.0 engine, do it seven times. The gearboxes alone have the potential of more than doubling the cost of the engine to nearly $100 an hour—and that’s before you buy fuel. What this means, in my view, is that Thielert’s management needed help in killing the company for good, Kuebler seems to be providing it. The part about no warranty support for anything is especially galling to owners.
“Does this mean that if I buy a $16,000 gearbox that’s no good, my only recourse is to buy another one?” one angry owner asked me this week. It evidently means exactly that, which is why Diamond, in a bulletin to owners, accused the bankruptcy firm of being more interested in short term cash flow than long term survival of Thielert and making its customers reasonably whole.
So it sounds to me like they are trying to suck the marrow out of the bones.
In any case, the fact that the reduction gears need replacement after 300 hours and a 1000 hour TBO seem to be a large part of the reason that they are in trouble. The warranty claims killed them.
According to Bloombert, Thielert has resumed spares shipments to customers, but I wonder how much of this is just inventory that they are selling off in attempt to make a quick few bucks.
Pity…It seemed like a promising technology, but 300 hours on a $16,000.00 gearbox? Ouch.
Northrop Grumman’s Secret X-Bomber
DTI editor Bill Sweetman looks at some contracts floating around the aerospace world, and has condluded that Northrop Grumman has been awarded “a classified Air Force contract to develop a secret bomber prototype”, likely based on the now canceled J-UCAS program, probably based on the X-47B that NG is making for the Navy as a part of the UCAS-D program that succeded the J-UCas:
He has a more detailed article here (Requires loading of proprietary Nxtbook reader), which indicates that the bomber would have a roughly 2000 mile range with a 14-28K pound bombload, which makes it about 1/2 the size of the B-2, and he theorizes that there may be some advances in terms of CFD and control systems.
Of course, the one question that does not get answered is why we really need this.