While it looks like the Indian PM Manmohan Singh may find the votes to approve the deal with the US on civilian nuclear power, it appears that it’s unlikely to make it through Congress this year.

The legislation that enabled the negotiations, the 2006 Hyde act, requires that Congress, “be in 30 days of continuous session to consider it”, and there are only 40 days to the August recess, when we are in election season.

While it is possible that this could be finished in a post election lame duck session, that is unlikely, a lame duck session that long would run into the holiday season, and none of the Democrats are even remotely interested in giving Bush time to try last minute hail Mary legislative initiatives.

In the next session, approval may be even more unlikely. In the US, this process has primarily been about political payback to the US nuclear industry, which has supported Republicans.

Here’s hoping, particularly since it appears that India will continue to build nuclear weapons.