Month: August 2008

A Formal Announcement on the Olympics

I won’t be watching. Over the past few decades, I’ve become increasingly put off by the nationalistic and jingoistic coverage from the networks, and quite honestly, they the sports that I follow anyway.

Obviously if some news crops up, most likely athletes having problems breathing, or protests, or something worse, then I will discuss this, but as to the sport itself, I am simply not interested.

Well, It Appears that these Colors Do Run

Let’s be clear: the air in Beijing is a miasma of pathological chemistry, and members of the US Olympic Bicycle team were completely justified in wearing filter masks when they flew in.

It looks like as a result of some arm twisting from Steve Roush, the chief of sport performance for the U.S. Olympic Committee, they all signed a letter that he drafted apologizing for wearing a mask, though bicyclist Mike Friedman said, “I’m not sorry for wearing the masks at all.”

This is a health issue. Athletes are delaying going to Beijing to minimize their exposure to the air. The bicyclists are completely justified in their actions.

Oil Companies May `Panic’ on Tanker-Rate Outlook: Chart of Day

It appears that oil tanker companies may direct their captains to slow down to save fuel, which would cause a shortage in the supply of tankers, and higher rental rates.

They are looking at a slowdown to 12 knots from 15 knots, which would save about 20 grand a day in fuel costs.

I would imagine that we would see a similar process unfolding with container ships, and this may contribute to increased costs for non-petroleum imports too.

Zimbabwe Update

It appears that there has been positive movement on power sharing.

I’m wondering if that might have anything to do with the announcement by the MDC that they have no intention of returning land seized from white farmers, though they will, “ask the international community and multilateral lenders to help compensate farmers whose farms were confiscated by Mugabe’s government since 2000”.

It might also just be the fact that the only thing less popular in Zimbabwe than Mugabe is returning the land to white farmers.

In any case, even with the New Zimbabwean dollar having 10 zeros dropped, it appears that the gasoline coupon is the most trusted currency in the nation.

McCain’s Fundraising Corruption

Hmmmm….It appears that one of McCain’s major campaign bundlers, Harry Sargeant III, is using straw donors to funnel money to the campaign from non-US citizens in the Middle East, which is a felony.

Actually it’s two, straw donors and foreign campaign donations.

Read the article. Many of the donors don’t make much money, and many of them are not even registered to vote.

And all the contributors in the story have Arab names, which when juxtaposed with Sargeant’s statement that, “I have a lot of Arab business partners. I do a lot of business in the Middle East. I’ve got a lot of friends,” does lead one to wonder what’s going on here.

Truman’s Aphorism on Phony Republicans Applies to Germans Too

As our 33rd president of the United States once said, “When people have the choice between a real Republican and a fake Republican, they’ll choose the real thing.”

It appears that Kurt Beck, head of the German Social Democrats, and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, their most likely candidate for premier in the next election, are discovering just how right Truman was.

They are unable to do anything to lower Angela Merkel’s popularity, and the party is now hemorrhaging members to the “Left Party”, created from trade unionists and the ashes of the old East German communist party.

If they have any chance of returning to power, they will necessarily have to be in coalition with the Left Party, and probably the Green Party too, but the LP would require more concessions, if the GP’s time in the coalition is any indication.

The LP would likely require a roll back of some of the anti-worker and anti-safety net policies of Shroder, which are a much bigger deal than the GP’s focus on environmental issues.

There is also a pensioner party forming to resist cutbacks in government pensions which may grab a few seats in the next elections.

Economics Update

A number of economists have suggested that the world economy has become “decoupled”, and that a recession in the US may not cause a recession elsewhere.

If the latest information coming out of Japan is any indication, these economists are wrong, as Japan seems to be heading into a recession too, though one could argue that the 1990s Japanese recession still hasn’t fully ended.

Not surprisingly, this driven the dollar up, and it hits a 7-month high vs the Yen, ¥109.56.

In the ongoing GSE soap opera, the Treasury Department has hired Morgan Stanley to look at at the financial structure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

There was a competitive bid process to select Morgan, though I still wonder if this is prudent oversight, or the fox guarding the hen house.

In either case, I think the fact that Freddie Mac has cut dividends after posting an $821 million loss, about 3 times what was expected, was a sensible move.

Dividends are for when you make a profit.

The monoliner insurers are not a soap opera though, they are farce, and the latest case is Ambac claiming a $823.1 million profit, which appears to be entirely due to an accounting change:

Ambac, once the second-largest bond insurer, reported a $1.7 billion net loss in the first quarter after a $3.3 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2007. A rise in the risk premiums on Ambac’s own debt in the second quarter lowered the value of bond guarantees, which was allowed to be reflected as a gain under new accounting rules, resulting in the quarterly profit.

Ambac rose 35 cents, or 7.4 percent, to $5.08 at 10:08 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Ambac and other financial companies are taking advantage of the accounting standard change — intended by rulemakers to expand so-called mark-to-market accounting — to report gains when market prices for their liabilities fall.

I’d appreciate a translation from accountant-speak, but it appears to me that they are profiting from the fact that no one is willing to pay face value on the debts that they owe.

In real estate, nirtgage applications rose last week, though only a little, and the week to week numbers are, as I always remind my reader(s) noisy. It’s still way down.

In energy, oil fell on reports of increased inventories to $118.58/bbl, and
retail gasoline fell again. It’s now $0.25 off of the record, so you save two bits a gallon.

Finally, we note that when the US gets a cold, Mexico catches pneumonia, particularly in rural villages, where the economy is even more dependent on remittances.

The depressing thing is that on a per capita basis, Mexico is solidly in the middle of the world in terms of wealth, and if a bit more could be pried from the top 1-2%, everyone would do better…..But I forget…that’s socialism, so we deal with hoards of economic refugees in the US instead.

Kansas Anti-Abortion Wingnut Crushed in Primary

Phill Kline, former Kansas Attorney General, and now District Attorney in Johnson County, just got crushed in his bid for reelection.

It appears that his efforts to file criminal complaints against Planned Parenthood, and to subpoena all their patient records have convinced Kansas voters that they want nothing to do with this butt wipe.

He hasn’t won an election since went postal on Planned Parenthood and he was defeated as Kansas AG. He was appointed as Johnson County DA, because that was the guy who won the race for AG.

Put a fork in him, Phill Kline is done.

Lawmaker Gets Constituent High-Fives for Accidentally Supporting Marijuana Legalization

When William “Lacy” Clay, Jr. (D – MO), signed off on Barney Franks’s (D-MA) bill to decriminalize marijuana, he thought that he was supporting medical marijuana, which he has supported for years.

It turned out that Frank’s bill actually decriminalized posession of all pot in amounts less than 100g (a bit less than ¼ pound).

The response of his constituents surprised him. They were overwhelmingly supportive of decriminalizing marijuana:

Clay was worried about the reaction. Supporting the liberalization of marijuana laws is not often seen as a political winner, especially in Midwestern cities like St. Louis.

But instead of stoner jokes, derision and righteous indignation, Clay was surprised to start getting praise from complete strangers.

“People are coming up to me saying this is a common-sense, sensible way to deal with the issue of personal use,” Clay said.

So far, he said, his calls, mail and contacts are running 80-20 in favor of the bill. He was impressed enough that he decided to go ahead and step before the cameras last week with Frank and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) at a news conference touting the bill.

The only people who support throwing people in jail for a couple of joints are the business interests in the iron triangle that is the US Law Enforcement/Industrial/Prison system.

Not surprisingly, Ron Paul, who is consistent about such things, was the only Republican co-sponsor of the bill.

Hamdan Trial at Guantanamo

The prosecution wanted the instructions to the jury changed, but withdrew the request when it was clear that this would result in a mistrial. Furthermore, the judge said that they had waited too long.

The judge instructed the jury that, in order to find him guilty on the charge of transporting the missiles, “they must find the missiles were intended for use against protected people — civilians not involved in hostilities, soldiers removed from combat by illness or capture, or religious or medical personnel.”

Since at the time of his capture, the only aircraft flying in Afghanistan were US and coalition aircraft, it seems to me that this is innocent.

The prosecution objected to this instruction, they wanted the judge to, “Tell jurors that any attempt by an ‘unlawful enemy combatant’ to kill a U.S. soldier in combat is a war crime,” which is a novel definition of a war crime, and, as the defense put it, “Then the United States committed a war crime by providing missiles to mujahideen forces who used them against the Soviet military in Afghanistan in the 1990s.” (date wrong in the article. It was the 1980s.)

These really are Kangaroo courts, and I think that the prosecutors may very well be committing a war crime, or a crime against humanity, by working under these rules.

Finally, the military managed to create this homage to Kafka:

Hamdan was allowed an hour-long phone call with his wife in Yemen on Monday evening, a Guantanamo official said. Defense attorneys said they tried to get permission for her to attend the trial but were refused on grounds that she is married to a terrorism suspect.

(emphasis mine)

We really need to prosecute the entire chain of war crimes from top to bottom when Bush and His Evil Minions are out of power, from the lowliest officer (the enlisted men have been prosecuted) to the very highest authority.

FBI Used Abusive Tactics That Might Have Caused Ivin’s Death

Just lovely. It appears that he was in counseling, and was briefly hospitalized, as a direct result of abusive FBI tactics, which included pressuring his children to turn on him, telling his son that he could get the $2.5 million dollar reward and buy a sports car, and showing his daughter gruesome pictures of the Anthrax victims, and told her, “Your father did this.”

The FBI has noted his access to a lyophilyser, a freeze drying maching that, “could be used to dry wet anthrax into powder,” but would not have produced weaponized anthrax.

The output would resemble instant coffee, which would require extensive processing to become inhalable. I used to do routing maintenance on an lyophilyser in an medical lab (1982-3), and I am aware of its capabilities.

A number of his co-workers believe that the FBI singled him out because of history of alcohol problems and other problems, so they figured that they could break him.