Month: August 2008

McCain Campaign in the Last Throws

John Sidney McCain’s strength has always been that the press loves him.

The press loves him because he gives them access, and he spends a lot of time sucking up to him.

Well, it now appears that the McCain campaign is restricting access to the press.

I’m not sure if they are simply unprepared, or if McCain can no longer handle the give and take, he increasingly seems confused on the campaign trail, but in either case, if the press does not grade McCain on a friendly curve, he will fail.

Economics Update

Challenger, Gray & Christmas is reporting that planned job cuts were up 26% in July, and the Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index fell to 112.1 in July, leading the board to predict that unemployment could pass 6% in 2009.

Additionally, the board noted that U6 has now topped 10%, which is probably the best metric, and closer to the one used in EU nations, for the first time in 5 years. Quoth the Wiki:

  • U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
  • U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
  • U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
  • U4: U3 + “discouraged workers”, or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions makes them believe that no work is available for them.
  • U5: U4 + other “marginally attached workers”, or those who “would like” and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
  • U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but can not due to economic reasons.

In an article with a typically bad headline, we see that personal spending and income fell in July, the headline leads with non-inflation adjusted spending, and we also see that inflation has eaten up most of the tax rebate stimulus package.

So what the taxman giveth, the House of Saud taketh away.

Commodities are showing some moderation now, with copper and aluminum falling because of the economic slowdown, though there is a consensus that latter will rebound.

Energy is down too, both oil and retail gasoline, much for the same reasons.

The dollar is down slightly, but is likely to be a holding pattern until tommorow, when the Fed makes its decision on interest rates, and may not move much until Thursday, when the ECB does the same.

In banking, Citi is now losing money on credit card securitizations, where they take credit card debt and package it into securities (similar to mortgage backed securities).

When you lose money on this, the economy is not in good shape, or you are completely incompetent. In the case of Citi, probably both.

Finally, the finance unit of Chrysler was able to finance only $24 billion of the $30 billion it sought to renew, and it was at a higher cost than anticipated, which will likely make auto loans more expensive.

Knights Templar Sue Pope

Talk about a long legal dispute!

The Association of the Sovereign Order of the Temple of Christ, which claims to be a descendant of the Knights Templar, are suing Pope Benedict over what they claim are about €100 billion in assets seized in 1307.

It appears that both Benedict and the Association of the Sovereign Order of the Temple of Christ are both moving toward the rehabilitation of the order, though I am not sure how the lawsuit would aid in this process.

The Association claims that, “Their motive is not to reclaim damages only to restore the ‘good name’ of the Knights Templar.”

Methinks that someone has watch the latest Indiana Jones movie too many times.

Bad Legislation

Tanta has noted that, “some of the bigger economic illiterates in Congress,” have sponsored a bill to restore the Downpayment Assistance Program (DAP). (previous posts here)

Basically, it allows a seller to supply the down payment to the buyer in exchange for a higher sales price, allowing people who won’t make a down payment to get an FHA approved loan, which require a down payment.

They funnel the money through a DAP company, and all is forgiven.

The default rate on DAP loans is at least three times those with down payments.

This is something that, “builders, real estate lobbies, and DAP companies,” are lobbying for, big time.

The Congresscritters in question also do not understand insurance apparently, details at link.

Syrian Liaison to Hezbollah Assassinated

Reports say that Brigadier General Mohammed Suleiman was shot while at his beach villa from someone in a boat.

It should be noted that he was rather more senior, and closer to Bashir Assad than his title indicated, with reports that, “His status was even more important than that of the defense minister.”

Like Assad, he was a member of Syria’s Alawite religious minority.

An unnamed Israeli official has denied involvement.

Whoever did this had to be a very impressive shot, as a rocking boat to a head shot is a non trivial bit of marksmanship.

A Tempest in a D-Cup*

In response to concerns that underwires and other bra components might cause injury if an officer were shot while wearing a bra, underwires, and other metal plactic portions of the bra could cause physical injury, the German police have issued them to their female police officers.

They are all emblazoned with the word “police” and made from cotton, polyester, elastic and some other synthetic materials, thickly padded and with no metal or plastic studs or fasteners.

How long before they shoe up on eBay?

*No apology for the pun. It’s the entire reason I wrote the story.

Damn You McCain!!! Damn You to Hell!!!!!!

I made a promise about She Who Must Not Be Named last June.

I promised the following:

I am not referring to the city of lights, neither am I referring to the similarly named town in Texas.

Rather, I am referring to the hotel heiress.

Absent some sort of political activity, such as endorsements, running for office (PLEASE GOD NO!!), or her attempting to assassinate someone, she will not be mentioned here.

Now, you force me to say the following:

Damn you John McCain!! Damn you to hell!*

Because, your lame ass add, and the subsequent condemnation of that ad by Kathy Hilton, the mother of She Who Must Not Be Named:

It is a complete waste of the money John McCain’s contributors have donated to his campaign. It is a complete waste of the country’s time and attention at the very moment when millions of people are losing their homes and their jobs. And it is a completely frivolous way to choose the next President of the United States.

What’s more, Kathy Hilton has actually contributed to your campaign!

How can I ignore that. How can I let all that pass…..Damn you.

*Yes, I know that the stakes are high in the presidential campaign, and that this post is really all about me, but I’ve never claimed to have class, or vision, or for that matter, hair on the top of my head.
Hair on my back, and my ears….that I claim proudly.

Great Lakes Basin Compact Passes Senate

The Great Lakes Basin Compact is a multi-state agreement that would, among other things, prevent transfer of water out of the region and coordinate environmental efforts.

It’s interesting that it’s being cast as preventing the export of water to foreign nations, though it’s far more likely that any mass transfers would be to the mountain west, parts of which rely on the rapidly depleting Ogallala aquifer.

It appears that the House will pass it too, and Bush has said that he will sign it.

Why is Iraq Buying Abrams and Light Armored Vehicles

Seriously, anyone who thinks that a $10.7 billion purchase that includes such items as Abrams tanks is a response to actual military needs is full of it.

There are still thousands of tanks and APCs out there for them to lose, but someone in the Pentagon or the State Department has twisted their arms to buy equipment that they do not need.

They won’t be engaging in a major shooting war with anyone for the next 20+ years, and under those circumstances, T-72s and BMPs will do the job just fine.

I’d Like to Think that Jews Aren’t That Stupid

It looks like McCain is looking at Representative Eric Cantor (R-VA) as a VP pick.

I hope that this sort of choice won’t make a difference to how Jews vote, and my guess is that it would not have much of an impact on Jewish voters, but it would piss off the Evangelicals that McCain is so aggressively courting.

We’ll see.

I expect his running mate to be an Evangelical, because choosing a Jew or a Catholic, or even a mainline Protestant would honk off their leadership.

Missing Friday Evening News

Specifically the news from the FDIC, which almost always chooses to act after the close of business on Friday.

Well, this Friday, they seized First Priority Bank. Sun Trust will be taking over the deposits.

Additionally, they warned four banks that they did not have enough liquidity. They were ordered to, “raise more capital, expand their loss allowances and better oversee and diversify their loan portfolios.”

Stupid Congress Tricks: Tanker Edition

Rep. Norm Dicks (D-WA) got language inserted into the defense spending bill to benefit Boeing, things like forbidding consideration of characteristics of the tanker proposals that might exceed the minimum requirements of the bid, which I would note is pretty much an admission that the A-330 makes a better tanker.

Well, we have a rumor that the nomination of Michael Donley for Secretary of the Air Force has had a hold placed on it by Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) (as if you couldn’t guess the state). She wants the military to, “the gravity of the flaws in the tanker acquisition process.”

You gotta love that military-industrial complex.

DDG-1000 Political Battle Lines Drawn

At first, it seemed fairly straightforward, with friends of the DDG-1000 fighting it out with friends of the DDG-51, though it is complicated because, even the Navy doesn’t want any more, Admiral Mike Mullen, who is chairman of the JCS, spent a lot of time defending it, and the policy direction, to Congress.

Well, John Murtha just made everything a lot more complex. He’s proposing that instead of putting the money in either destroyer, that the money be put into an LPD-17 amphibious warfare ship, two T-AKE auxiliary dry cargo dock carriers, and long lead items for the next Virginia class submarine.

Thing is, Murtha is probably right. The surface combatant fleet, destroyers basically, is the youngest part of the fleet, and the old ships that need to be replaced are amphibious warefare craft and support ships, and the Submarines are the only survivable combatants in a surface engagement with a peer power (which is at least 20 years away), and are useful at surveillance and things like inserting SEAL teams.