Month: August 2008

I Want My Jetpack

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Only $100,000.00, and it’s supposed to have about an hour’s endurance (see also here).

It sounds a lot like a lawn mower, and based on the video (see below) I think that the flight controls are not ready for prime time.

Additionally, it probably needs some refinement….It has a 200 hp engine, as compared to the 178 hp engine used in the original Bell Model 47, (The chopper you see carrying wounded in the opening credits for the M*A*S*H TV series), so my guess is that there is a some aerodynamic refinement that could be done, in addition to getting weight out of the system.

Still, it comes with its own ballistic recovery parachute, a must for the ham-handed pilot.

Speaking of the Eclipse 400…..

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The CEO and founder of Eclipse Aviation Vern Raburn has stepped down. It appears that their major backer European Technology and Investment Research Center Aviation (ETIRC) made this a condition of additional funding.

As a part of the leadership change, there is an announcement that their Eclipse 400 single engine VLJ is not a done deal.

Eclipse is not even close to approaching its intended production rate for the Eclipse 500, 4 planes a day, it’s currently at less than 1, and I think that ETIRC wants to get the ducks in a row on the 500 before moving on the 400.

VJL Update

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Hmmm….It looks like Cirrus is developing a dingle engine business jet, the SJ50, that looks an awful lot like the Eclipse 400 (previous posts here) that I discussed a couple of months ago.

It’s pretty clearly a form following function thing, rather than any outright copying. There are relatively few configuration options for a single engine very light jet that the marketplace will accept.

Interestingly enough, it appears that Cirrus will sell it with a recovery chute, as it does on its piston engine models, which will be a challenge, given the higher speeds and energy involved.

First, Diamond International expects to certify its D-Jet and start deliveries some time in Q2 2009.

Seeing as how their engine supplier is not Thielert or some other new entrant, it’s a Williams FJ-33-4A-19 turbofan, I would expect them to be on schedule.

Honestly, I think that the single engine VLJ is likely to be a winner in the VLJ sweepstakes, because the operating costs will be lower.

In the two jet VLG category, the Adam A700 has been rescued from bankruptcy, albeit absent the “Adam” name, as AAI, who purchased the company out of receivership, thinks that there is some bad market mojo there.

It appears to be among the most spacious of the VLJs, which may, or may not, be a function of its twin boom design.

Finally, Piper has flown it’s VLJ Piperjet, which is another of the single engine VLJs, though it’s somewhat larger then the D-Jet, the Eclipse 400, and Cirrus Jet.

It appears larger than its single engine competitors, but it just doesn’t look right. Something just looks wrong about the aircraft, but then again, so did the F-4 Phantom.

Gaaahhhhh!!!!!!!!

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We have a winner in the wanker press competition, coming, not surprisingly, from the Wall Street Journal.

Writer Amy Chozick is suggesting that with much of the American public overweight, that Barack Obama might be too fit to be president!!!!

But in a nation in which 66% of the voting-age population is overweight and 32% is obese, could Sen. Obama’s skinniness be a liability? Despite his visits to waffle houses, ice-cream parlors and greasy-spoon diners around the country, his slim physique just might have some Americans wondering whether he is truly like them.

So, this is the new meme of the Kule Kidz inside the Beltway, huh? as opposed to this adulatory coverage of Bush and Rice about their “intense” exercise regimes.

So, is Obama too skinny, or too black?

So Not Shocking…JFS Cost Skyrockets

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The cost of the JSF for Australia has apparently $AUS75 million to $AUS131 Million* (the Australian dollar is about $0.95 US).

It’s still cheaper than the F-22, which law forbids them to get anyway, which clocks in at an eye-popping $355 million (US).*

I think that a number of nations will start considering alternatives, either US (F-15, F-16, F-18E/F) or foreign (Typhoon, Rafale, Gripen,Flanker Family), when the full cost is made known.

Additionally, I think that for non-US (and non-UK) forces the support costs may be higher because their own militaries will not be able to maintain some of the systems, as they will not be given sufficient information on the aircraft’s highly integrated avionics.

But wait, there’s more!!!!

Lockheed is looking to change the accounting structure in order to generate a sh$#load more costs:

The JPO currently bills each of the three major F-35 contractors separately. This unique arrangement is designed partly to limit the amount of overhead feeds charged by each of the contractors, which can amount to hundreds of millions of dollars over time.

Lockheed’s proposal, however, would bundle all of the industry team’s charges into a single billing process for submitting to the JPO for payment.

Each charge submitted by BAE and Northrop would include a discrete fee to cover their own overhead costs. Lockheed would then add its own overhead for the aggregated bill. Since Lockheed would be charging an overhead fee on top of fees already charged by BAE and Northrop, the JPO would be paying a “fee on a fee”, Wood says.

She adds that the JPO estimates the current structure has saved $850 million already, so making a change for the full-rate production phase could dramatically increase the programme’s overall costs.

So if you read anyone who says they have a handle of the actual cost of the F-35, don’t believe them.

*There are a number of ways to price aircraft, and I believe that both are total program cost divided by number of aircraft. I’ve heard quotes at about 1/2 as much for the F-22.

Is There Pentagon Electronic Warfare Deficit?

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Stephen Trimble is reporting that the Pentagon is concerned that its current generation of EW gear will not be able to cope with later models of Russian SAMs.

The S-300 and S-400 systems (SA-12, 20, 21, 23) have the potential even the existing ALQ-99, which is carried by dedicated jammers, the EA6B Prowler and F/A-18G Growler.

I’m not sure how much this is Pentagon budget sucking, and how much is real needs myself.

He also posted a neat Youtube (it’s about an hour long) on the history of electronic warfare in the Silicon Valley:

Those EU Regulators Have No Sense of Adventure

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Emirates airlines is planning a super luxurious first class for their A-380 super-jumbos.

It includes having a shower available to first class passengers which is kind of neat, but EU regulators refused to allow them to recycle water for the shower, so now they have to carry an additional 500kg of water for the showers.

It turns out that they do allow recycling in private jets, but for a passenger airline, they were not quite ready.

BTW, I think that this bathroom is neat. If I were to walk into it, upon leaving, I would have to say, “No Mr. Bond, I expect you to die.’

It’s got a wicked evil mastermind feel to it.

A New, and Plausible, Competitor in the Aviation Diesel Sweepstakes

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SMA light aircraft engines sent a rep to Oshkosh to sing the praises of their new engine.

What makes it different is that it’s designed to operate at 2,200 rpm, which means no reduction gearing between the engine and the prop, so the engine has a 2,000 hour TBO, and they expect to push it out to 3K hours, as compared to the gearbox on the Thielert, for example, that needed to be rebuilt/replaced every 300 hours.

It’s turbocharged, and rated at 230hp for five minutes and 200hp continuous up to 10,000 feet.

It displaces 5 liters, which is larger than the 2.0 liter Thielert obviously, but my guess is that the swept volume (rpm x displacement) are probably pretty similar.

Tanker Tango: How Much Did Boeing Suck?

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The former Air Force Secretary says that it’s enough to say that you just want to be friends:

Former Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne thinks the service should be pitiless with losing contractors, so they’re not encouraged to endlessly protest important contracts. Excessively kind language, he said, leads the losers to think they only lost by a hair. In the KC-X tanker competition, “We should have been harsher on the loser,” Wynne said during an interview July 28…….

One of the things that I’ve always said is that in order for the tanker contract to go to EADS, in an election year, it wasn’t a close thing, which implies to me that Boeing has a significantly inferior product.

Wynn is strongly implying the same thing.

A380 Weight Looks to Come Down

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As they get further down the production road, it looks like Airbus will get closer to the originally intended structure weight for the A-380.

According to Airbus and Emirates Airlines, it should add about 13 hours more endurance, and allow flights from their home base to SFO and LAX.

Additionally, Emirates is looking at pulling the retail catalogues out of the seats (!), and replacing them with a interactive channel on inflight entertainment system, which could save nearly a ton.

I think that this may make the aircraft far more competitive vs. the 747-8.

Bloody Fool

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Obama Opens the Door to Offshore Drilling

You and your campaign just allowed yourself to be bitch slapped, again.

Let remind my readers of the “Bitch Slap Theory of Republican Politics“:

One way — perhaps the best way — to demonstrate someone’s lack of toughness or strength is to attack them and show they are either unwilling or unable to defend themselves — thus the rough slang I used above. And that I think is a big part of what is happening here. Someone who can’t or won’t defend themselves certainly isn’t someone you can depend upon to defend you.

You just caved to a tremendously stupid idea.

It does not make you strong, it makes you look weak.

You and the Democrats lose, and McCain and the Republicans win. It’s that simple.

Talk About Rebelling Against Your Parents

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Yes, I know that the source is Wing Nut daily, but this story is just too amusing to pass up.

According to WND, Masab Yousuf, son of West Bank Hamas leader Sheik Hassan Yousef, has converted to Christianity, and has become a supporter of Israel:

“I know that I’m endangering my life and am even liable to lose my father, but I hope that he’ll understand this and that God will give him and my family patience and willingness to open their eyes to Jesus and to Christianity. Maybe one day I’ll be able to return to Palestine and to Ramallah with Jesus, in the Kingdom of God,” Masab said.

Masab said he previously aided his father with Hamas activities, but he now has affection for Israel and laments Hamas.

Well, I guess that’s how you rebel against your parents, if your parent is a rebel.

OK, these Numbers are Grim

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This time, it’s commercial mortgage back securities, and the default rate is about 4%, but this number is expected to quadruple if the economy slows down significantly.

Let’s note that this is commercial property, the stuff that’s supposed to be largely recession proof that we are talking about here:

Such a scenario corresponds “to the negative predictions currently offered by commercial real estate experts”, analysts at Fitch wrote. This would happen if the economy suffered a similar downturn to 1991, and assumes that the value of properties covered by the deals falls by 25 per cent, and cash flow from rents by 15 per cent.

The higher defaults under such a slowdown compares with a historical default rate of 7.9 per cent, and with the milder scenario that Fitch thinks is more possible of 0.8 per cent economic growth and a 13.7 per cent rate of default.

It would cause non-investment grade bonds – B and BB rated CMBS – to suffer loss rates of 100 per cent and 95.9 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, 30.6 per cent of the lowest-rated investment grade bonds – BBB rated – would experience losses, while loss severities would rise to 37.9 per cent from an historical average of 33.5 per cent.

The data suggest that recently issued CMBS may fall victim to inflated property values and weaker underwriting standards experienced at the height of the US property boom in 2006 and 2007, as well as the weaker economy. Those bonds make up about 49 per cent of the outstanding CMBS market of more than $800bn. The survey covers all Fitch-rated bonds issued during those two years, making up 74 deals worth $217.3bn. That was about 60 per cent of all CMBS issued during the period.

These numbers are apocalyptic.

Freddie Mac Gets on the Clue Train

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This is why no one in their right mind is building anything. Construction spending is down for the 11th time in 13 months.

Freddie Mac seems to have realized the gravity of the situation though. Yesterday, I wrote about their doubling the payments to servicers for loan workouts, and today we discover that they are ending bonuses for servicers who foreclose quickly.

It makes sense. When times are good, you just want the stuff off your books and resold quickly, but when times are bad, you go broke doing that.