Economics Update

Well, I guess that the lead story has to be Lehman Brothers, which appears to be collapsing Bear Stearns style, and looking for government funding of it’s eventual sale, Bear Stearns style, so negotions with potential buyers continue apace.

The Fed and the Treasury Department appear to be seriously twisting arms to make the deal go through, though they claim that there will be “no federal money” involved.

Seriously, all we are doing here is socializing losses. Nationalize the lot of them, throw out upper management, and go after their bonuses, otherwise, we will see more of the same.

Of course the fact that WaMu just had its ratings cut….again…Means that Paulson may have two things on his “to do” list this weekend.

There are already rumors that Washington Mutual is on the auction block.

In the real economy, the one that the rest of us live in, news ain’t great. The weekly job claims fell, but the 4 week moving average and the continuing claims, continue to rise.

Additionally, retail sales fell again in August, showing a continued weakening in the economy, as does the large gain in business inventory.

Real estate is looking worse and worse too, with foreclosures continuing to increase.

This has driven the dollar down, because it points toward the Fed cutting rates.

In energy, oil is continuing on a downward trend, because of hurricane Ike, selling briefly below $100/bbl (!), though the fact that it’s heading toward refineries is driving gasoline up.

I would note that this is actually normal market behavior. Knock out refineries, and the demand for oil decreases, and the price drops, but the demand for gasoline remains the same, so prices increase.

BTW, I’m not sure what is going on in insurance, but it is clear that American International Group is getting absolutely hammered, and when the subject of the short selling is the largest insurer in the world, something is whack.

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