Month: December 2008

National Security Letter Gag Rule Overturned

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The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has found that the Patriot Act’s gag rule associated with national security letters is unconstitutional:

The appeals court invalidated parts of the statute that wrongly placed the burden on NSL recipients to initiate judicial review of gag orders, holding that the government has the burden to go to court and justify silencing NSL recipients. The appeals court also invalidated parts of the statute that narrowly limited judicial review of the gag orders – provisions that required the courts to treat the government’s claims about the need for secrecy as conclusive and required the courts to defer entirely to the executive branch.

This is a victory against one of the most Kafkaesque aspects of the security state created by Bush and His Evil Minions™, which allowed the FBI to demand evidence without a warrant, and prohibited the recipient of a letter from talking to a lawyer to challenge the letter.

Economics Update

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December 2008 Business Outlook Survey – Philadelphia Fed.
Calculated Risk gives us the following graph pr0n on the relation beteween the Philly Fed index and recessions

30-year mortgage lowest in 37 years of Freddie Mac survey – MarketWatch

Also note the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, which, as Bondad Notes, has fallen off a cliff over the past two months.

If you go to the ISM’s report, you will see that the pretty much everything is down, and down significantly:

The two industries reporting growth in November — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Paper Products. The industries reporting contraction in November are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Wood Products.

With industrial production cratering, it is no surprise that first time job claims are still at a high level, though they have retreated from last week’s catestrophic numbers, and the 4 week rolling average is up, though continuing claims are down, though I can’t tell if that’s from claim exhaustion, people giving up, or people going back to work, though my money would be on one, or both, of the first two.

Over on the other side of the pond, corporate sentiment is falling in Germany, and the ECB is taking rate cut like steps, even if they are not technically rate cuts, to boost the economy.

In the intersection of real estate and banking, the rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage hit the lowest number ever recorded, and records go back 37 years, though Calculated Risk (again) notes what the rate is for Jumbo loans, which not handled by Fannie and Freddie, who now have an explicit guarantee from the government, the numbers are very different:

As an example Wells Fargo is offering a 30 year fixed at 4.75% (up to $417K), but their rates are 7.375% for loans above that limit.

That’s a 7.375% is 55% more than 4.75%. That’s a lot of flight to safety.

In currency, the dollar is up a bit, which is not surprising. It’s enough time for the shock from the Fed’s rate cut to have worn off.

I still think that hte trend for the dollar is weaker.

In oil, even though OPEC announced large production cuts, fell below $36/bbl.

It could be that oil traders do not believe that the cuts will be followed, or that they think that the economy is so bad that it does not matter, or that there are still people who need cash and are selling oil contracts to get it.

My vote would be for all three.

Netanyahu Picks Up Allies in Run for PM

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Now we have Dan Meridor Ze’ev Benyamin Begin and Moshe Ya’alon joining forces with Benyamin Netanyahu, though based on their history, they hate each other.

The story talks about his moderating some of his talk, but anyone who has an even passing acquaintance with Bibi Natanyahu knows that this is just talk.

It’s happening because he’s going to win, with current polls showing him outpolling Kadima 32 seats to 26, and labor possibly dropping to single digits, perhaps even 4th place.

As to the fall of Labor, while security is always the 800 pound gorilla in the room, Labor used to have a role on social and economic issues, and over the past 30 years, Labor (big L) has abandoned labor (little L) for Thatchernomics.

While the Israeli economy has grown, there are increasing disparities between rich and poor, and severe poverty is on the rise, and the 3 mainstream parties have all abandoned the issue.

We Oppose the Idea Because It Will Help People and Save Money

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Seriously, this is the state of ‘Phant ideology.

Lindasy, “Majikthise” Beyerstein notes that this is why Republican oppose any form of public insurance:

Mark Hayes, a Republican health policy adviser to the Senate Finance Committee, said Republicans have concerns because the government plan might have access to price controls and other tools not available to private insurers. This could lead to lower premiums in the government plan, which would cause most consumers to migrate out of the private market, he said.

Do you notice what Mark Hayes is saying.

He is saying that the government will provide a better and cheaper service, and so this will damage the private providers of under-performing products.

If the private sector works so well for keeping people insured, surely the private sector would beat the public sector….except, of course, that it doesn’t.

Why the Hit Jobs on Darcy Burner

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One of the questions in the last election cycle was, “Why was the Seattle Times so aggressively hostile to Darcy Burner?” In her close loss to Dave Reichert.

They went so far as to misstate her degree in order to claim that she had lied about her education.

Well, now we know why they hated her, and sent their reporters out with orders to lie.

It appears that Ms. Burner ran the Committee for a Two Newspaper town, which prevented the Seattle Times from using its joint operating agreement with the Seattle Post-Intelligencer to shut the publication down, and eventually forced the Times to make $24 millions in payments to keep the JOA going.

Losing the possibility of a monopoly in Seattle advertizing was probably even more expensive to the Times than was the payment, and so when she won the Democratic Primary for congress, it was payback time.

I know, it’s an almost 2 month old analysis that I’m linking to, but I just noticed it…My bad.

The Short Form

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No, I am not referring to the 1040A income tax short form, or the even shorter 1040EZ form. I am referring to the form required to apply for the Treasury Department’s TARP program, which is only two pages long.

So, now we know why we don’t want to release any more money to Hank Paulson or Neel “Cash & Carry” Neel Kashkari: They are not even applying the due diligence to these loans that Alt-A lenders applied to liar loans.

Supreme Court Remands Gitmo Torture Damages Case

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The Supreme Court granted certiorari in the case of Rasul v. Rumsfeld, Myers, et al., in which 3 British citizens held at Guantanamo sued for torture and violations of their religious rights.

They vacated the dismissals of the Circuit and Appeals court, and sent the case back to the circuit for review with instructions to review it under the precedent of Boumediene v. Bush.

An interesting bit here:

In January, the federal appeals court decided that even if all their claims are true, the US officials are immune from suit because, even though torture, physical abuse and humiliation of prisoners violate domestic and international law, the officials were doing all this “within the scope of their employment” and so aren’t personally responsible. They were also immune, the court added, because it wasn’t clear when they authorized the torture that detainees at Guantanamo Bay had rights. As for the men’s religious rights, the court decided that as foreigners, they were not “persons” entitled to the protection of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act.

Note that the inimitable Janice Rogers Brown, who claimed that God’s law trumped the constitution when she was a judge, by which she meant that every zygote was a person no matter what the Supreme Court said, is now saying that the detainees were not “persons” entitled to the protection of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, which means I guess, that Moslem fetuses are not people to her.

It should be interesting how it goes.

Update on Bigot Little Rickie Warren

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In addition to being a virulently anti-gay, anti-abortion bigot, I forgot to mention that Obama’s choice to give the invocation at the inauguration also supports the assassination of foreign leaders:

HANNITY: Can you talk to rogue dictators? Ahmadinejad denies the Holocaust, wants to wipe Israel off the map, is seeking nuclear weapons.

WARREN: Yes.

HANNITY: I think we need to take him out.

WARREN: Yes.

HANNITY: Am I advocating something dark, evil or something righteous?

WARREN: Well, actually, the Bible says that evil cannot be negotiated with. It has to just be stopped. And I believe…

HANNITY: By force?

WARREN: Well, if necessary. In fact, that is the legitimate role of government. The Bible says that God puts government on earth to punish evildoers. Not good-doers. Evildoers.

and views gay marriage marriages as being equivalent to incest, child rape and polygamy:

Rick Warren: But the issue to me is, I’m not opposed to that as much as I’m opposed to the redefinition of a 5,000-year definition of marriage. I’m opposed to having a brother and sister be together and call that marriage. I’m opposed to an older guy marrying a child and calling that a marriage. I’m opposed to one guy having multiple wives and calling that marriage.

Steven Waldman: Do you think, though, that they are equivalent to having gays getting married?

Rick Warren: Oh I do.

BTW, while I’m sure I don’t have enough readers to get a comment to the effect that this was not Obama’s decision, but that of the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies, headed by Diane Feinstein.*

Well, the word is out that this was Obama’s pick:

A powerful Democratic friend contacted me this morning to let me know that they talked to the key players yesterday, and Diane Feinstein, chair of the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies, had nothing to do with the pick of Rick Warren as Obama’s invocation speaker at the inaugural. The decision was made by Obama himself, I’m told, and Feinstein just assumed that he had vetted it with his staff. Difi went along with Obama’s decision, not the other way around. If this is true, then our apologies to Senator Feinstein for suggesting that she was involved.

This has the ring of truth.

Feinstein made her statewide political career on reaching out to the gay community as mayor of San Francisco following the assassination of Moskone and Milk.

It’s one of the few things that she has never wavered on.

*Full disclosure, my great grandfather, Harry Goldman, and her grandfather, Sam Goldman were brothers.

Juan Williams: Calling Swarthy People Uppity Since…..

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OK, he didn’t use the word “uppity”, but considering his behavior, where he seems to make a living out of condemning things like Rap music (and getting the lyrics wrong in the process), his screeds against the Iraqi people on Billo’s show should come as no surprise.

But’s let’s read what he said (vid below):

WILLIAMS: But on a serious level, how many American lives have been sacrificed to the cause of liberating Iraq? How much money has been spent while they’re not spending their own profits from their oil? American money. So I just think it’s absolutely the act of an ingrate for them to behave in this way. Just unbelievable to me.

Them, huh….They should shut up and sing spirituals eat their falafel.

Yes, they are ingrates because they object to being invaded and conquered, which has created this reality:

  • More than four million Iraqis forced to flee either to another part of Iraq or abroad.
  • Four million Iraqis regularly cannot buy enough food.
  • 70 percent are without adequate water supplies, compared to 50 percent in 2003.
  • 28 percent of children are malnourished, compared to 19 percent before the 2003 invasion.
  • 92 percent of Iraqi children suffer learning problems, mostly due to the climate of fear.

And those numbers ignore the somewhere north of ½ million dead that are a result of the mess we made.

They should be grateful, because even though we took them prisoner and sold them as slaves across the oceans, their life is much better on the plantation …. they get purple fingers.

Could someone explain to me why Juan Williams isn’t excluded from polite society like David Duke?

Economics Update

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Starting with real estate, the Architecture Billings Index fell to an all time low in November, surpassing the all time low in October. (H/t Calculated Risk)

Also, if you read about houses moving in Southern California, please remember that 55% of those sales are foreclosures. (Again, H/t Calculated Risk)

We are also seeing treasury yields down in expectation of an abysmal Fed Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index at 10:00am on Thursday.

In currency, what can you say? The fed cuts rates to basically 0%, and it’s down against other major currencies.

In energy, OPEC pledged cuts of 2.2 million bbl/day from production, but the price fell anyway, to below $40/bbl(!), because investors do not think that it is enough, and because they think that member nations will cheat.

On the other hand, it does appear that retail gasoline has finally bottomed out, as it’s up by $0.006/gal today.

Auto Industry Update

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Just so you know, I am aware how scummy the auto manufacturers are, case in point:

GM is expanding its Mexican plants as it is asking for a bailout from the US government.

It appears that the Republican Party Apparachicks who operate Cerberus have decided to shut down all Chrysler plants at least until January 19. Additionally, they are instituting draconian new fees to dealers on unsold inventory:

Starting Jan. 1, Chrysler’s financing arm will impose large fees on dealers holding new cars and trucks that are unsold after more than 360 days, and will require the payment of all remaining balances on any used vehicles unsold after more than six months.

Some dealerships could incur charges totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars over the course of 2009 at a time when many are already losing money and battling to stay in business, according to dealers familiar with the plans.

The reason that they give is that:

Chrysler’s financing arm recently has warned dealers it may have to temporarily stop providing loans for dealers to stock vehicles on their lots because of a wave of withdrawals from a fund used to pay off those loans.

In a letter dated Dec. 12, Chrysler Financial Chief Executive Tom Gilman said dealers have been withdrawing up to $60 million a day from the fund. A copy of the letter was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Dealers put their own money into the fund and use it to pay off loans that they take out to stock their lots with new vehicles. But since July, dealers have pulled $1.5 billion from the account on worries that Chrysler could go bankrupt.

They are not worried that Chrysler could go bankrupt, they are worried that flip and flee artist Cerberus, LLC will steal their money and that they will be left holding the bag, because that is how flip and flee artists work.

Additionally, GM has the Chevy Volt engine plant in Flint, MI on hold to conserve cash.

On the brighter side, it appears that GMAC is getting closer to being able to qualify as a bank holding company, which will allow them to get the bailouts from the Fed.

Obama Staffing Update

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Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsak for Secretary of Agriculture.

Republican Congressman Ray Lahood for Secretary of Transportation.

Mary Schapiro, current CEO of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority as SEC Chairman. Finra which operates under SEC supervision, is a self regulatory organization, and was created last year in a merger of the NYSE and NASD self regulatory agencies.

I don’t know if this is good, because it means that she knows the system, or bad, because she’s too much of an insider.

Muntazer al-Zaidi Is Going to Be Murdered

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Seriously, he is. We just had his court hearing before a judge in his cell, “because he is too injured to appear in a courtroom, his brother says.”

He’s being tortured, and not a word from Bush of Perino on this, which would stop the abuse, because Perino is a wind up doll, and Bush likes it when people he sees as slighting him are hurt….Hell, he probably just likes it when people are hurt.

We also have a report that Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, Speaker of Iraq Parliament resigned over this, though it is unclear as to whether it was a real resignation, and if real, it is unclear if he was doing so over al-Zaidi, or because the body was in complete pandemonium:

Several Sadrist lawmakers interrupted, demanding that the session address al-Zeidi’s case and allegations that he had been beaten in custody. A noisy argument broke out after other lawmakers shouted that the case was a matter for the courts, according to Wisam al-Zubaidi, an adviser to Khalid al-Attiyah, parliament’s deputy speaker.

With legislators screaming at one another, speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, a Sunni, shouted: “There is no honor in leading this parliament and I announce my resignation.”

Al-Mashhadani, who has not taken a public position on al-Zeidi, has a history of eccentric behavior and it was unclear whether the resignation was serious. Two years ago, the Shiite bloc ousted al-Mashhadani after a series of outbursts, but his fellow Sunnis forced his reinstatement.

An official in the speaker’s office confirmed al-Mashhadani’s announcement but said he was uncertain whether he meant what he said. The official said the speaker may have been made the remark because he was upset. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

Obama Throws Gays Under the Bus…..Again

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Over a year ago, I called out Barack Obama for throwing gays under the bus with his gospel concert in South Carolina, when he let an anti-gay bigot (who’s also … you know gay … but all better now really … no … really … he’s all better now…) take the stage … scratch that take over the stage…

Well, I’m not stunned and amazed: He handled the McClurkin contraversy in the way most calculated to be hurtful, and now he
is having bigot Christo-Fascist* Rick Warren to give inaugural invocation.

The PFAW president describes himself as ‘Profoundly Disappointed’ by this development, and Atrios gives Obama the coveted Wanker of the Day award.

The good folks at Right Wing Watch have the scoop on just what this man has done and said, which includes:

  • Coming out vociferiously in support of Prop 8 stripping the right to marry from gays in California.
    • This also includes him lying like a dog, and saying that this would allow pastors to be arrested for sermons
  • Declaring that marriage, abortion rights (anti), and stem cell research were “non-negotiable” issues for Christian voters.
  • Has said that the difference himself and James Dobson is a just tone.
  • He has compared abortion to the Holocaust.
  • Declared that those who do not believe in God should not be allowed to hold public office.

I’m a bit disappointed, but I am far from surprised, I expected some sort of backhand to “te gay” as a demonstration of “bipartisanship.”

My gay friend who thinks that Obama sh%$s ice cream though….I don’t know how he’ll rationalize this.

If you are expecting a move on Don’t Ask Don’t Tell in the military before the 2010 elections, you are sorely mistaken.

*I could also use the term “Talibaptist”….Your thoughts on which works better?

Election Update

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In Virginia, bigot US Representative Virgil Goode has conceded after a recount failed to turn around his 745 vote deficit.

In Minnesota, we have the Franken campaign suing Olmsted County some absentee ballots that were accepted, but then accidentally placed in the wrong pile, and so were not counted.

I would have thought that this one would not require the filing of a lawsuit, but I’m naive, I guess.

In any case, it was Norm’s big day in court, and while there were no rulings, it does appear that the Minnesota Supreme Court was unamused with the Coleman campaign.

Part of it hay have had to do with Coleman’s lawyer using the “F-Word” in court….No, not that f-word….I mean that he used the word Florida.

Roger Magnuson wasted no time in bringing up Florida. In fact, the attorney’s first utterance before the Minnesota Supreme Court this afternoon referenced the legal debacle of 2000. Representing Sen. Norm Coleman’s campaign, Magnuson argued that the state canvassing board’s actions of December 12, when it recommended that all 87 counties count wrongly rejected absentee ballots, were an “an invitation to go to Florida.”

But before Magnuson could begin to back up this assertion, he was interrupted by a clearly irritated Justice Paul Anderson. “This is not Florida,” he stated. “I’m just not terribly receptive to you telling us this is Florida.”

So it went throughout the one-hour hearing before the Supreme Court today, with the justices repeatedly interrupting and questioning attorneys for both campaigns. The justices seemed more interested in Andersen v. Rolvaag, the 1962 Minnesota Supreme Court case that helped decide the state’s deadlocked gubernatorial race, than Bush v. Gore.

(emphasis mine)

Another Indication of Just How Long the Damage Will Last

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Because this was unthinkable just 5 or 6 years ago:

Latin American and Caribbean leaders gathering in Brazil tomorrow will mark a historic occasion: a region-wide summit that excludes the United States.

Almost two centuries after President James Monroe declared Latin America a U.S. sphere of influence, the region is breaking away. From socialist-leaning Venezuela to market-friendly Brazil, governments are expanding military, economic and diplomatic ties with potential U.S. adversaries such as China, Russia and Iran.

and in addition to China and Russia, guess who’s coming to dinner?

The two-day gathering, called by Brazil at a beach resort in Bahia state, is also a diplomatic triumph for Cuban President Raul Castro, making his first trip abroad since taking over from his brother Fidel two years ago. The communist island was suspended from the hemisphere-wide Organization of American States in 1962 over its ties with the former Soviet Union.

We will be suffering major ill effect is Bush and His Evil Minions™ well after I am dead.

More People Who Write (and Think) Better Than I am Able Too

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In this case, it’s Jonathan Schwarz of A Tiny Revolution:

There’s a rule of thumb for American politics that will never steer you wrong: if the Washington press corps worships a political figure and squeaks for decades on end about how he’s a Brave Man of Honor and Wisdom, that political figure is one of the most dangerous lying scumbags on earth.

I would only add that sometimes *cough* John McCain *cough* he’s also batsh%$ insane.

What Big Media Matt Says

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On Iraq:

The harsh reality is that this was not a noble undertaking done for good reasons. It was a criminal enterprise launched by madmen cheered on by a chorus of fools and cowards. And it’s seen as such by virtually everyone all around the world — including but by no means limited to the Arab world. But it’s impolitic to point this out in the United States, and it’s clear that even a president-elect who had the wisdom not to be suckered in by the War Fever of 2002 has no intention of really acting to marginalize the bad actors. Which, I think, makes sense for his political objectives. But if Americans want to play a constructive role in world affairs, it’s vitally important for us to get in touch with the reality of what the past eight years of US foreign policy have been and how they’re seen and understood by people who aren’t stirred by the shibboleths of American patriotism.

(emphasis mine)

I don’t want them marginalized. I want them imprisoned.