Year: 2008

An Interesting Sidebar to the Israeli Bombing in Syria

First, Israel is alleging that Syria had a deal with Iran to send some of the spent fuel back to them for Plutonium processing, and second, the raid may have been what led to the current talks.

First, it appears that the fact that Bashir Assad remained in power following the bombing gave the Israelis confidence that he was actually in control, and second, it appears that the bombing reminded the Syrians that the “gang that can’t shoot straight” show that occurred in the Lebanon war is the exception, not the rule.

Together, both articles paint an interesting picture.

So, Where is Reid on Telco Immunity?

Like many things with Harry Reid, it’s kind of confusing. He is a wheels within wheels kind of guy.

Reid is co-sponsoring cosponsoring the amendment to strip telco immunity, but as this is sure to be filibustered, it not going to happen.

He also says that he’s going to vote against the whole bill.

So at least nominally, Reid is on the side of Dodd, Feingold, Wyden and Boxer.

I think that all this is far less noble than one might imagine. I agree with Emptywheel’s analysis, that his objections are less about the merits of the bill than they are about holding back any approval until the Housing Bill and Iraq Supplemental, which has, “Webb’s GI bill and an extension to unemployment benefits” have passed and have been signed into law.

Economics Update

Just a few weeks ago, analysts were saying that the worst of the banking problems were over, but now they are saying oops! The banking downturn still has a way to go, so their “buy” message was premature.

This is not surprising, considering that analysts are low looking at something like $30 billion in additional losses just for WAMU for home mortgages, commerical loans, and credit cards.

I think that the only bank’s revenue remaining stream is check bounce fees, it appears.

Not surprising, considering that real estate is still crashing, with mortgage applications continuing to crater, and new home sales falling 40% from this time last year (and off 63% from the 2005 peak).

It’s no wonder that the changes in regulation allowing for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to repackage jumbo loans has had little effect, with the GSEs choosing instead to focus on repurchasing some of their own mortgage backed securities, which serves to minimize potential losses.

In terms of Jumbo loans, those over $417K, Fannie wrote $24 million and Freddie wrote $220 million since they could in March.

By comparison, in April alone, they spent $32.4 billion to buy back their old securities.

Nothing is moving until the players have a reasonable assurance that this is not all smoke and mirrors that they are dealing with.

Of course, the whole housing bubble breaking is not just academic. It now appears that a lot of the early babl boomers will have very little to live on retirement because of the housing crash.

In the wonderful world of energy prices, oil is down a bit on high inventory levels, and retail gas prices continue their downward path.

This lack of confidence, and lack of money, is probably why durable goods orders remain anemic.

Too Stupid for Silverware

New York Times Columnist Thomas L. Friedman is a complete pratt. Really….

That also helps explain why Iraqis initially never took ownership of their governing institutions, like the Coalition Provisional Authority, or C.P.A. They never fought for it. It was handed to them. People have to fight and win their own freedom, and that’s what gives their institutions legitimacy.

Anyone who does not understand that the CPA was a US institution, enforced at the barrel of a rifle by the US military, and answerable only to Bush and His Evil Minions is too stupid to cut his own meat.

It’s Been a Busy Few Days in Zimbabwe

It turns out that Tsvangirai’s withdrawal from the runoff has, if anything, intensified ZANU-PF thuggery.

Of course, in response, you have the African National Congress coming out in favor of doing nothing about all this. Increasingly, I believe that there are elements in the ANC who believe that Mugabe’s fate will be theirs one day, and so they will support him to the bloody end.

Morgan Tsvangirai is calling for international isolation and armed peace keepers before a fair election can be held.

I will say that when the most effective action taken on all this so far is Queen Elizabeth II stripping Mugabe of his knighthood, you know that the regional and international response is pretty pathetic.

Barack Obama has condemned Mugabe, and has talked with Tsvangirai on the phone.

Truth be told, this surprises me.

I don’t think that there is really any electoral advantage in all this.

Countrywide Shareholders Approve Takeover as the Police Close In

OK, it may be a bit of an exaggeration. It’s true that Coutrywide’s shareholders approved the Bank of America takeover.

And as to the question as to whether BoA got a good deal, or whether they come to regret it, I would note that the state attorneys general of Illinois and California have both filed suit for what amounts to fraud and deceptive business practices against the mortgage lender.

Countrywide’s founder, Angelo Mozilo, aka “the Tanned One”, must be breathing a sigh of relief.

Fed Holds Rates Steady

I think that I was right, no rate change, but the words accompanying the decision are a bit more hawkish on inflation.

FRB: Press Release–FOMC statement–June 25, 2008

Release Date: June 25, 2008
For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.

Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and the rise in energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year. However, in light of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities and the elevated state of some indicators of inflation expectations, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high.

The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time. Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

$2 billion in Unaccounted Aid in Pakistan

Typical. Money that was supposed to be spent on counter-terrorism was spent on…lord knows what.

Of course Pakistan has been spending our money down south, to counter the Indians, as opposed to up north, where the Taliban is, anyway.

Once again, I am compelled to make the repeat the wisest thing that I’ve read this century:

But it does inspire in me the desire for a competition; can anyone, particularly the rather more Bush-friendly recent arrivals to the board, give me one single example of something with the following three characteristics:

  1. It is a policy initiative of the current Bush administration
  2. It was significant enough in scale that I’d have heard of it (at a pinch, that I should have heard of it)
  3. It wasn’t in some important way completely f#$@ed up during the execution.

Seriously. I’ve yet to see anything wiser yet, and I’m using the loose definition of the 21st century which includes the year 2000.