Year: 2008

Bush Administration to Pull DPRK from Terror Watch List

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It’s actually quite refreshing that Bush and His Evil Minions™ are acutally doing something to deescalate the diplomatic situation with North Korea.

Not surprisingly, Cheney, et al, are steadfast against this.

The fact is that the North Koreans are not crazy, they are paranoid, and when you have Cheney lobbying for a military attack, that’s just being a realist.

Hopefully, this will be a step towards formal diplomatic relations. The only thing keeping the regime in power is paranoia and distrust of the USA.

My Prediction on Fed Rate Setting

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Even if inflation were not an issue, and it is, they would not cut rates, because they have already cut them so far that the market is no longer effected by this.

The economic news lately has been awful, so they won’t raise rates.

Thus, they will do nothing, though my guess is that their statement will be more hawkish on inflation.

We will know in about 14 hours.

High Gas Prices Put Crimp in Exurban Life

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While I think that the predictions of a rapid decline in far suburbs is premature, it’s clear that increases in fuel costs, and hence the cost of commuting have driven some changes in attitudes regarding distant suburbs.

I disagree with land use expert Christopher Leinberger, who says, “Many low-density suburbs and McMansion subdivisions, including some that are lovely and affluent today, may become what inner cities became in the 1960s and ’70s – slums characterized by poverty, crime and decay,” if just because these McMansion subdivisions were remarkably poorly constructed, and the houses will not survive long enough to become slums.

I would expect, however, that as the exurbs were first into the housing crash, they will be the last out, and the land values won’t reach the relative levels that they had to more urban neighborhoods ever again.

A Brilliant Solution in Zimbabwe

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In a New York Times OP/ED, Peter Godwin muses on what to do about the brutal war that Mugabe is waging on his own people.

He notes that the international community should delegitimize the Mugabe regime, and take steps to recognize the government in exile.

Then he has his moment of genius:

Of course, South Africa could use its economic power to draw Mr. Mugabe’s rule to an end in weeks rather than months. Yet Mr. Mbeki has steadfastly refused to act, providing a protective cloak for Mr. Mugabe’s repression. And just a few weeks ago, even as opposition members were being tortured, Mr. Mbeki visited Zimbabwe, allowing himself to be garlanded at the airport and displayed on state-run TV with a broadly grinning Mr. Mugabe. In the United Nations Security Council, where South Africa currently has a seat, Mr. Mbeki has opposed attempts to put the political situation in Zimbabwe on the agenda.

If Mr. Mbeki’s cost-benefit calculus has been such that he hasn’t seen it necessary to take tougher action, perhaps it’s time to change that calculus. Perhaps, for example, now is not the time for you to book a safari to South Africa. Or for you, or any institution that manages your funds, to make new investments in the country.

Most important, there is the FIFA soccer World Cup, for which South Africa is to act as host in 2010. That may seem like a long way off, but South Africa is already investing huge amounts both financially and politically, for what is supposed to be its triumphal coming-out party. Maybe Zimbabwe should become to the South Africa-hosted World Cup what Tibet has been to the Beijing Olympics — the pungent albatross that spoils every press conference and mars every presentation with its insistent odor.

Perhaps it’s time to share the Zimbabweans’ pain, to help persuade Mr. Mbeki to bear down on its source by threatening to grab the world’s soccer ball and take our games elsewhere.

I don’t follow soccer, so I was unaware that the World Cup would be in South Africa.

This is brilliant, and people should start lobbying FIFA now to change the venue.

About Those Gitmo Detainees “Returning to the Fight”

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In the most recent Supreme Court decision on Gitmo, Scalia noted that 30 former detainees had, “Returned to the Fight”.

Well, thanks to Sabin Willett, whose firm has represented some of those detainees, writing in the Boston Globe, we now have a definition of what this means:

It is a serious allegation, so the lawyers looked into it. It turns out that clients of our firm, who were sent to Albania in 2006, were two of the 30. What fight had they returned to? Abu Bakker Qassim had published an op-ed in The New York Times. Adel Abdul Hakim had given an interview. These press statements were deemed hostile by the Department of Defense.

Surely the Pentagon was joking? They weren’t.

So I can’t speak for the other 28, if indeed there are another 28, but for the two men I do know about, giving hostile interviews constituted “returning to the fight.”

The basic institutions of state security in the United States have become very profoundly pathological indeed.

From a Man Who Advocates Beating Children and Pets….

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James Dobson, is suggesting that Barack Obama distorts biblical values, this from a man who advocates beating children and pets.

It appears that this attack was the result of Obama raising a very valid point, “Even if we did have only Christians in our midst, if we expelled every non-Christian from the United States of America, whose Christianity would we teach in the schools? Would we go with James Dobson’s or Al Sharpton’s?”

Which is a valid point.

Apparently, Dobson feels that Sharpton is a racist, and thus that Obama was tarring him as a racist.

If the show fits dude. A quick google finds many quotes where Dobson claims black genetic inferiority, revulsion toware mixed race marriage, etc.

Bizarro World: I Agree With Ramesh Ponnuru

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Writing in The Corner, he notes that while Time Magazine reporter Massimo Calabresi suggests that the FISA update drew attacks from both sides, Mr. Ponnure notes that he hadn’t, “heard much unhappiness being expressed from righties,” and that, “If that’s what they [Democrats] want to tell themselves, fine. It sure looks like they got rolled.”

Ponnuru is completely correct. The right has been unable to contain their glee over this abomination, and Mr. Calabresi is either very stupid, or allowed Steny Hoyer to hypnotize him.*

*Just in case the mouth breathers from The Corner come over, let me be clear, the hypnosis bit is a joke…

GAO: Surgee No Workee

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The GAO has just issued a report on the surge, and it has determined that, “The American plan for a stable Iraq lacks a strategic framework that meshes with the administration’s goals, is falling out of touch with the realities on the ground and contains serious flaws in its operational guidelines.”

You mean Bush and His Evil Minions™ screwed it up???? I’m shocked.

Once again, I am compelled to make the repeat the wisest thing that I’ve read this century:

But it does inspire in me the desire for a competition; can anyone, particularly the rather more Bush-friendly recent arrivals to the board, give me one single example of something with the following three characteristics:

  1. It is a policy initiative of the current Bush administration
  2. It was significant enough in scale that I’d have heard of it (at a pinch, that I should have heard of it)
  3. It wasn’t in some important way completely f#$@ed up during the execution.

Seriously. I’ve yet to see anything wiser yet, and I’m using the loose definition of the 21st century which includes the year 2000.

FHA Still Backing Zero Money Down Home Loans

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It’s called the DAP, Down-payment Assistance Program, and it allows buyers to purchase a home with no down payment, even though FHA regulations require 3% down.

The offers — including “100% financing” — are made possible due to down-payment assistance programs run by nonprofit organizations. These programs are funded largely by home builders and also by private homeowners desperate to sell. The seller-funded groups provide enough down-payment money to buyers that they can qualify for a mortgage backed by the Federal Housing Administration, which requires at least a 3% down payment.

Basically, realtors and builders set up non-profits, and the home seller contributes to the non-profit to cover closing costs and down payments, which are made as grants to the buyers.

Of course, that money from the seller gets tacked onto the selling price. So if a condo were to sell for $100K, they would sell it for $110K, with 7K covering closing costs, and 3K covering the down payment required by the FHA.

Net effect: the buyer has no skin in the game.

They now account for 34% of downpayments on FHA loans.

Thankfully, the current FHA overhaul in Congress eliminates this…for a while, at least.

In any case, how about letting the pictures do the talking:


Zimbabwe

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Morgan Tsvangirai says that he will leave the Dutch embassy shortly, and the UN Security Council is now saying that the violence has made the runoff election a sham.

Needless to say, it does not help that the African National Congress has explicitly rejected any international intervention, though the Congress of South African Trade Unions has called Mugabe’s regime illegitimate.

As Will Bunch says, the only way to get a meaningful intervention there is to find massive oil reserves, so perhaps the MDC needs to start drilling.

Energy and Speculation…A Problem….Not So Much

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Well, we have analysts saying that oil and gas are have had twice their price doubled by speculation, but I think that this is a load of crap. I agree with Paul Krugman, that the effects are smaller than that. If you were to argue that there were a 5% effect on the price over the short term, I would buy that, but 50% is way out of ling.

Krugman had a nice picture on the relationship between oil futures, contracts for later delivery, and spot prices, where the oil is delivered immediately:
Simply put, there would be more of a spread if there were more of a speculative effect.

That being said, market volatility, which aggressive speculation exacerbates, does a lot of damage otherwise, so I do support some of the measures that the Congressis considering in order to reign in excessive speculation.

That being said, at its core, we have demand for raw materials outstripping supply. That’s why we are seeing things like a 96% jump in iron ore prices, a market in which there are no futures contracts.

And When We Talk About Rats Leaving a Sinking Ship

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We cannot leave out the retirement of Leonard Downie Jr. as the Washington Post’s Executive Editor, though I would argue that the WaPo is a sinking ship because of the aforementioned rat, as he not only piloted the Post into the ice berg, but has repeatedly backed up and run it into said block of ice again…and again…and again.

He will be out September 8.

As to what has happened to the Post, go to this link, and look for the phrase Washington Post Death Spiral Watch. Their OP/ED page gives the WSJ a run for its money on stupidity and lying, and their political coverage seems to have sprung full blown from Karl Rove’s wet dreams.

It may be better when he’s gone, but I doubt it. I think that Woodward and Bernstein’s Watergate coverage was the exception, and not the rule, at the post, which has had a history of sucking up to the “very serious people” inside the beltway for a very long time.

Rats Leaving a Sinking Ship

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This time, it’s Republican New York State Majority Leader Joseph Bruno, who has announced his retirement.

The ‘Phants have a 1 seat majority in the state senate, and I think that Bruno knows that this will change and that the Senate will go Democratic in 2008.

Hopefully, a redistricting at the state senate level will follow, because that body is ridiculously gerrymandered, since the Dems will then hold both state houses and the governor’s mansion.

An Update on Regina Thomas (GA-12)

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I just wanted to note that about a week ago, the Regina Thomas act blue page was under $5,000, and now she is at $35,713.00 $36,039.00. The campaign web page is here.

This is because the incumbent in the district, Bush Blue Dog John Barrow, is one of the major proponents of the FISA capitulation, and he has ardently advocated for telco immunity, and taken lots of telco money to boot.

Georgia’s 12th district has its primary on July 15. John Barrow is white in a district where 70% of the primary voters are black, and State Senator Regina Thomas is black, so knocking him off in the primary is possible, though it won’t be easy.

Barrow currently has $1,311,478 cash on hand, 55% of it from PACS, so the amount that Thomas has may not be enough.

The good news is that Barack Obama’s endorsement of Barrow has increased interest in Thomas:

In an effort to control my enthusiasm, I asked Thomas about the depressing news that Barack Obama endorsed Barrow and recorded a radio ad, which caused outrage this week on many blogs. Thomas would have none of it. “That’s the best thing that happened to me!” she countered. “People are angry about this! Here’s a man who has not served his district, and Obama is messing in our local businesss. I’m getting emails from Illinois, Pennsylvania, even Taiwan! A man in his 80’s with a small retirement was sending a check to Obama each month, and now he’s sending it to me. The response is incredible,” she said.

I asked if there were any polls. “We haven’t had the money for a poll, but Barrow took a poll and he didn’t like the results, because he got Obama to make the ad. He refuses to show up for debates, and is sending surrogates who look like me. But people aren’t fooled, they see right through it. Why is he afraid to debate me?” she asked.

(emphasis mine)

Things seem to be trending her way, and there are still 3 weeks to the primary, so check her out.