Year: 2008

Economics Update

The Empire State Manufacturing Index droppeed 5 points, to -8.7 (0 is neutral), indicating further weakness.

Oil is down for the day by a quarter, but it hit a new record of $139.89/bbl before settling, and retail gasoline hit another record, now having hit a record on something like 25 days of going back a month.

It’s not surprising that the dollar was down today, though I’m not sure if this drove oil, or oil drove this.

In banking, we have Barclays looking at selling shares to raise capital to cover losses in the US mortage market, and Lehman had some sort of hush-hush weekend meeting, which might indicate some problems, though it’s reassuring that they reduced their mortgage holdings by 20%, which indicates a bit of common sense.

Econ 101: Free Trade Does Not Necessarily Bring Lower Prices

Dani Rodrik has a good analysis:

Advocates of globalization love to argue that free trade lowers prices, and the argument seems sensible enough. Think of all the cheap goods from China that we can buy at Wal-Mart. But anyone who understands comparative advantage knows that free trade affects relative prices, not the price level (the latter being the province of macro and monetary factors). When a country opens up to trade (or liberalizes its trade), it is the relative price of imports that comes down; by necessity, the relative prices of its exports must go up! Consumers are better off to the extent that their consumption basket is weighted towards importables, but we cannot always rely on this to be the case.

Consider your typical Argentinian for example, who consumes a lot of wheat and beef. Since these are export products for Argentina, free trade implies a rise in the relative price of the Argentine consumption basket. (The gains from trade are still there, of course, but they derive from the usual allocative efficiency improvements, not from lower prices across the board.) And in the U.S., the Wal-Mart effect has to be qualified to take into account the fact that the relative price of the goods that the U.S. exports (including for example agricultural commodities) is higher than it would have been absent trade. Similarly, when the U.S. gets better market access abroad for its agricultural exports (a key demand under the Doha round), you can be sure that this will raise domestic prices for these goods, not lower them.

Highly recommended.

Not Getting it in the EU

Looking at this report on the responses to the failure of the Irish referendum on the new EU treaty, it’s clear that the many of the movers and shakers simply don’t get what their problem is.

I am generally not a big fan of the referendum as a process, but it is a valid process, and the degree that the Eurocrats are claiming that it is somehow illegitimate, they are reinforcing every negative stereotype about them.

The problem is quite simple, and has 3 parts:

  1. The new constitution is too damn complex. At 250 pages, no one understands all of its sections, and so this breeds distrust.
  2. The response to the failure of the last constitution, where France and the Netherlands had referenda that failed was to eliminate referenda, which further breeds distrust in the process.
  3. Among the Eurocrats, there seems to be the idea that the decision making structures of the EU must be insulated from politics, which means that they are insulated from democracy, which further breeds distrust.

Simply put, in order to update the EU governance structures such that they will win the support of the public, or at least the Irish public, since any change in Ireland mandates a referenda, these structures must be seen as less opaque and more democratic.

Researchers Regrow 2000 Year Old Judean Date Palm

This is kind of neat. Let’s hope that it’s a female tree, and thus can bear fruit.

Researchers confirm age of “Methuselah” tree
Thu Jun 12, 2008 2:00pm EDT
By Ari Rabinovitch

JERUSALEM, June 12 (Reuters) – Israeli researchers who grew a sapling from a date seed found at the ancient fortress Masada said on Thursday the seed was about 2,000 years old and may help restore a species of biblical trees.

Carbon dating confirmed that the seed — named Methuselah after the oldest person in the bible — was the oldest ever brought back to life, Sarah Sallon, a researcher at the Hadassah Medical Centre in Jerusalem, reported in the journal Science.

The seed came from the Judean date palm, a species that once flourished in the Jordan River Valley and has been extinct for centuries, Sallon said. It was one of a group discovered at Masada, a winter palace overlooking the Dead Sea built by King Herod in the 1st century BC.

……

Obama’s Donut Hole Social Security Tax

He is proposing restarting the tax for incomes above $250,000.

I’m not too fond of the donut hole he is proposing, but I understand the politics here.

There are a lot more voters between (IIRC) $104K and $250K, but a lot more money above 250K.

One thing that needs be done though is that the definition of “wages” needs to be expanded, or a lot of these folks will move “wages” to dividends and capital gains.

ONR Looking at Jumbo Size Hovercraft

The Office of Naval Research is looking at a very large hovercraft for amphibious operations.

It would have a 2500 mile range at 20kts, followed by a 250 mile 40+kt dash to the beach, with a 500-750 ton cargo capability, as versus the 70 ton capability with a 200 mile range for the LCAC currently in deployment.

If this runs true to Navy procurement form, we’ll next hear of it when it’s 18 months late and 35% over budget.