Year: 2008

The Latest in the US Gulags, Prison Ships

Delightful. They are now apparently using prison ships outside of territorial waters in order to avoid the scrutiny of human rights activists:

The United States is operating “floating prisons” to house those arrested in its war on terror, according to human rights lawyers, who claim there has been an attempt to conceal the numbers and whereabouts of detainees.

….

The analysis, due to be published this year by the human rights organisation Reprieve, also claims there have been more than 200 new cases of rendition since 2006, when President George Bush declared that the practice had stopped.

The Hague, bitches, the Hague.

Bush and His Evil Minions need to spend the rest of their lives in foreign prisons under the international criminal court. It’s the only way that this can be resolved now, because we lack the political will to prosecute this ourselves.

Delusional Navy Budgets

The navy is looking for $25 billion per year, about double current spending, on its 30 year plan for a 313 ship navy.

The problem is that everyone knows that this is not unsustainable, and their procurement programs are a mess, with the DDG-1000 costing over $5 billion a ship (the Navy claiming “only” $3.3 billion), the Littoral Combat Ship program being a disaster, with costs going from $220 Million/ship to over $500 million/ship, increasing maintenance costs as the Ticonderogas and the Burkes get older, etc.

The article goes into more detail, but it appears increasingly clear that the Navy does not have a clear vision of what it needs to be or to do over the nest 30 years.

Daimond Aircraft/Thielert Engine Update

Daimond aircraft announced its new Austro Engine AE300 2.0 170hp diesel, which uses the same Mercedes diesel based block as the Thielert engine, to replace Thielert’s Centurion engine at the ILA 2008 air show.

The comments from Christian Dries, chief executive of Diamond, were very informative:

Why did we start our own engine development programme? Answering his own question, Dries said: “Well, it was not our intention to invest €40m in the factory, I’d rather have saved the money. But the TBO of the Centurion 2.0 was becoming very short. It would almost be cheaper to operate with a twin turboprop…”
On a potential certification date, Dries says: “As soon as possible. As you can see it’s close. It has to be if we are flying three aircraft into the show on them.

From the article, it is clear that the negotiations between Diamond and Thielert have been contentious, and I’m inclined to take Diamond’s side, as we now have reports that the bankruptcy administrator is gouging on parts that were covered by warranty:

Now comes Kuebler [the bankruptcy administrator] to revise the rules in such a way as to leave owners not just in the cold, but with virtually no financial support of any kind. We’re told that as of mid-May, a Thielert 2.0 diesel still costs about 33,000 Euros or just over $52,000. That sounds like a huge sum and it is– twice the cost of a Lycoming overhaul for equivalent horsepower. But the diesel’s fuel specifics are favorable enough to offset the higher cost over an avgas engine on a lifecycle basis. Or at least they used to be.

Now, Thielert no longer warrants the engines or parts. When you come up on the 300-hour gearbox requirement, they’ll sell you a new one at $16,000 or an inspected one for $7800—if you wire the money to Germany upfront and arrange for your own shipping. On your Maalox-powered run to the 1000-hour TBR, you get to do that three times, plus the cost of the pumps, alternator, shipping and who knows what else. If you go to 2400 hours on the new 2.0 engine, do it seven times. The gearboxes alone have the potential of more than doubling the cost of the engine to nearly $100 an hour—and that’s before you buy fuel. What this means, in my view, is that Thielert’s management needed help in killing the company for good, Kuebler seems to be providing it. The part about no warranty support for anything is especially galling to owners.

“Does this mean that if I buy a $16,000 gearbox that’s no good, my only recourse is to buy another one?” one angry owner asked me this week. It evidently means exactly that, which is why Diamond, in a bulletin to owners, accused the bankruptcy firm of being more interested in short term cash flow than long term survival of Thielert and making its customers reasonably whole.

So it sounds to me like they are trying to suck the marrow out of the bones.

In any case, the fact that the reduction gears need replacement after 300 hours and a 1000 hour TBO seem to be a large part of the reason that they are in trouble. The warranty claims killed them.

According to Bloombert, Thielert has resumed spares shipments to customers, but I wonder how much of this is just inventory that they are selling off in attempt to make a quick few bucks.

Pity…It seemed like a promising technology, but 300 hours on a $16,000.00 gearbox? Ouch.

Northrop Grumman’s Secret X-Bomber

DTI editor Bill Sweetman looks at some contracts floating around the aerospace world, and has condluded that Northrop Grumman has been awarded “a classified Air Force contract to develop a secret bomber prototype”, likely based on the now canceled J-UCAS program, probably based on the X-47B that NG is making for the Navy as a part of the UCAS-D program that succeded the J-UCas:

He has a more detailed article here (Requires loading of proprietary Nxtbook reader), which indicates that the bomber would have a roughly 2000 mile range with a 14-28K pound bombload, which makes it about 1/2 the size of the B-2, and he theorizes that there may be some advances in terms of CFD and control systems.

Of course, the one question that does not get answered is why we really need this.

A Good Debunking of a Panglossian Financial Press

A few days ago, I read a fairly typical don’t worry, be happy article on CNN by Paul La Monica.

After perusing it for a while, and I shook my head, and thought, “Moron”, but decided not to pursue it on my blog. It just seemed be the all to ordinary whistling past the grave yard that one sees in far too much of the financial press.

Yesterday however, I got an email from Paul Lamont, who I have cited before here, who runs Lamont Trading Advisors, who sees their mission as being to prepare clients for a, “major bear market”.

He has a very nice rebuttal to Mr. Lamonica’s article, noting that:

  • Lamonica’s use of unemployment as a metric is disingenuous, as it is a lagging indicator. [I would add that the unemployment stats are also highly massaged these days as compared to 1933].
  • The absence of deflation is not a difference, inflation continued until 1931 in the great depression, and the same applies to commodity inflation and inflationary concerns.
  • That the recent bounce back of the stock market is actually rather similar to what happened in the great depression, with the eventual bottom occurring because the banking system froze up:

Go and read his article, I wholeheartedly approve, though I do differ on one point: I see the continuing economic crisis mirroring those that occurred in Asia, Argentina, etc. where you see sudden and catastrophic devaluation of the currency (i.e. inflation), as opposed to the 1930s style depression.

That’s why I have 30% of my 401(k) in overseas index funds.

Brazil Also Lodges OOXML Complaint

I think that the Bum’s rush on OOXML pushed by the US and Microflaccid may end up backfiring:

Now Brazil has become the latest country to put the boot in by objecting to what it claimed was a flawed BRM that saw processes rushed through in favour of Microsoft gaining approval for its document format.

….

Marcia Cristina de Oliveira, manager of the standardisation process at the ABNT claims in a letter to the ISO (a copy of which is provided by Andy Updegrove here) that “the Brazilian delegation was not allowed to present an important proposal regarding the legacy binary mapping.

“Brazil had tried to present this proposal, during the debates, on the first day of the meeting… On Friday, when USA ended their part of presentation and asked for Brazil to present its part of it, the convenor denied this opportunity to Brazilian delegation.”

According to Updegrove, that’s quite a serious allegation. “While this latest appeal overlaps the South African objections in part, it also raises new concerns, some of which are particular to the interests of Brazil, rather than applying to the process as a whole. “As a result, it raises not only additional issues, but also ones that present a categorically different basis for appeal as well,” he said.

Interestingly enough, OOXML is already out of compliance, as the standard, DIS 29500, is supposed to be published no more than one month after approval.

Dutch Parliament Throws a Monkey Wrench into JSF Acquisition

The government won approval to buy their first two F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, but they cannot spend more than 10% of the money allocated until they conduct a, “the government conducts a new, open and transparent evaluation of alternatives to the JSF,” with the involvement of experts outside their ministry of defense.

I think that this all comes down to the increasing realization that the JSF is going to cost a lot more than was initially promised.

Dutch Industry Getting Cold Feet on JSF

In 2002, the Dutch government agreed to invest €858 million in developing the JSF, “on condition that it would not cost more than buying an aircraft off the shelf”, with significant offsets to the local aerospace industry.

As a part of this contract, the Dutch aerospace industry agreed to cover any shortfalls in funding, but this number has grown signifantly from the €191 estimated in 2002, and inudstry wants to renegotiate the deal, claiming that, “financial benefits of the project are now far greater than originally thought and that the deal will benefit the taxpayer at the industry’s expense”.

Basically, they are saying that are getting hosed by cost escalation on the project, which is almost certainly true, and it will be getting a lot worse if the program continues in its current form.

Neat Tech: FCS Edition

In this case, this is actually a potentially useful military technology, specifically what is called the Unattended Ground Sensors (UGS) system.

These are a family of disposable/deployable sensor ranging in size from something a bit smaller than a shoe box to about the size of a cigarette pack:

The UGS come in two forms, the Tactical UGS and the Urban UGS. Tactical have four different versions, including the ISR node, which contains magnetic, seismic, and acoustic sensors; the Gateway node which is a communications relay system; an Electro-optics node with an EO camera for the day and an infrared camera for night; and a Radiological/Nuclear node. The Tactical UGS are about a foot long and several inches wide (exact specs are classified), and are typically partially buried so they aggressor units can’t see them while passing by. Urban UGS are smaller, and are placed on walls inside buildings to monitor rooms already cleared by soldiers. The two UGS send data back to the Gateway, which then processes the information and send its out through the FCS communications system.

The basic objective of the technology is to create a networked picture of the battlefield.

Situational awarness is frequently the most important part of winning a battle, but when one considers that any foreseeable conflict in the immediate future will be a counterinsurgency operation, where US forces would be operating at an information disadvantage that will not be helped by this sort of technology.

Russian Advanced Helo Concepts

The Russians are looking at advanced high speed helicopter concepts too (Paid Subscription Required):


Mil Mi-X1

Among the concepts are:

  • The Mi-X1, a 5 ton class aircraft with a top speed of around 450-500 km/h.
  • The Kamov Ka-92 which uses a coaxial rotor with retreating blades offloaded, much like Sikorsky’s X2 demonstrator.
  • The Ka-90, which has a rotor which folds down along the fuselage for high speed (700 km/h) flight.

Yes, Myanmar, There is a Panty Clause

Not sure if I can add much to this:

Panties sought for Myanmar protest

Two Canadian human rights group in Quebec are calling for women to mail panties to Myanmar’s embassy to protest the ruling military junta.

The Quebec Women’s Federation and the activist group Rights and Democracy claim the secretive military leaders in the country formerly known as Burma are superstitious and believe contact with women’s underwear will usurp their power, CTV News reported.

Economics Update

CNN is reporting that Consumer spending was flat relative to inflation, which really is not true, since the CPI is crap, and because consumer spending includes food and energy, which are going through the roof, so everything else was down.

It looks like there will be more downward pressure on the dollar, as Euro-zone inflation is at 3.6%, which means that the ECB will definitely not cut rates, and might raise them, though the dollar strengthened slightly today.

BTW, the report of the improved growth in the intermediate report on US GDP? It’s really a contraction, as Barry Righoltz notes, the gains weredefense spending, inventory builds, and exports, with the rest of the economy at -0.4%.

Go to his site for the chart pr0n.

In energy, oil rebounded a bit from yesterday’s fall to $127.35/bbl, and retail gasoline hit a record yet again.

Comment Problems

People have been seeing some weird codes in, and having some problems with, the HaloScan comments. This has been resolved, but not by me:

From: HaloScan Support Thu, May 29, 2008 at 4:56 PM
To: Matthew Saroff
Thanks for contacting Haloscan Support
– The issue has been resolved. If you continue to see these messages ,please contact us.