Year: 2008

Economics Update

Obviously the economic news of the day, hell the news of the day period, was oil surging to above $135/bbl, though they settled about $4 lower.

Retail gasoline hit a new record, the 15th straight, $3.831/gallon.

Dollar has taken a hit too, which is common when oil surges.

In employment news, US initial jobless claims fell, though the number of people collecting benefits remains at a 4 year high, so it appears that the unemployed are not finding new jobs.

In real estate, the OFHEO reports that house prices fell 1.7% in Q1 of 2008, (PDF) the sharpest decline in since records began to be kept in 1991.

The Financial Ratings Model is Broken, Just in Case You are Wondering

That commie pinko rag the Financial Times discovered that Moody’s improperly rated a complex entity called a constant proportion debt obligations (CDPO) giving them the much desired AAA rating, when it should have been 4 levels lower, Baa.

Moody’s was the second rater, in addition to S&P, which also rated them as AAA, though a number of other ratings agencies, Fitch Ratings and DBRS, disputed rating these securities so highly. (There is a graphic at the link that is rather byzantine, which is a sign to run the other way):

The results showed that early CPDOs might lose between 1.5 and 3.5 notches in the Moody’s Metric, an internal measure, which equals up to four ratings notches.

Some Moody’s analysts had concerns. With so many transactions from other banks in the rating pipeline, the code could not be left as it was. The bug was corrected.

At the same time, the documents record that Moody’s staff looked at how they could amend the methodology to help the rating.

Some of the most senior managing directors in Moody’s European structured finance division were involved in meetings to discuss the updating of the methodology for rating CPDO-like transactions in February.

The staff also looked at reducing assumptions about the future volatility of the credit markets so that Moody’s model only anticipated minor moves in credit indices over the next 10 years.

This had the effect of reducing the negative impact on the ratings of correcting the code error.

So, they goofed on a rating, but S&P thought that everything was just ducky, and their reaponse was how do we cover this up.

It’s no wonder then that the agencies are vehemently opposed to the idea of guaranteeing the quality of their ratings. Because it’s a fundamentally dishonest mindset in a business that appears increasingly dodgy.

As Tanta of calculated risk notes, it’s the last two paragraphs of the story (first link)that are scary:

The world’s other major credit agency, Standard and Poor’s, was the first to award triple A status to CPDOs but many investors require ratings from two agencies before they invest so the Moody’s involvement supplied that crucial second rating.

S&P stood by its ratings, saying: “Our model for rating CPDOs was developed independently and, like our other ratings models, was made widely available to the market. We continue to closely monitor the performance of these securities in light of the extreme volatility in CDS prices and may make further adjustments to our assumptions and rating opinions if we think that is appropriate.”

This implies a sort of mutual back scratching to generate fees that makes all of the ratings suspect.

Germany: Old Economy Doing Just Fine

For the past couple of years, Germany has been the engine of the Euro zone economy.

Turning bolts, Germans were told – often by other Germans – had no future in Germany. The persistence of heavy manufacturing symbolized the country’s inability or unwillingness to transform itself into a modern, services-oriented economy like the United States or Britain, two oft-used yardsticks.

Today, the manufacturing sector in Germany is growing as a proportion of the country’s total economic output, and Germany looks set to outpace far larger economies like China and the United States as the world’s largest merchandise exporter for the fourth year running.

In addition, making all manner of valves, motors, machine tools and robots is providing Germans with something rare in the global economy: shelter from the storm. Thanks to bolt-turning, the German economy grew at an annual rate of 6 percent in the first quarter of this year.

In the US, we are told it’s all services baby. Sell houses (like that’s working), or sell securities (the revenue model is vanishing in a puff of smoke), or maybe sue people for patents on stuff you never made….

Not working so well, and that’s because brokering is essentially a parasitic activity. We have been taking other’s people money and we’ve been….I don’t know…I guess employing no account coke head brothers-in-law or something.

Our economy is far closer to Spains during the height of its colonies now than it was in 1929. Then we had a robust manufacturing sector that could power a recovery, once demand picked up.

Right now, however, what does the US really make?

Damned if I know.

School Districts Employ Snitches to Throw the Newly Foreclosed Out of School

Yep, school districts are employing private investigators to find foreclosed children so that they can thrown them out of school.

I would note that it’s frequently illegal, “The McKinney-Vento Homeless Assistance Act, an updated version of a 1987 law, says school districts can’t deny enrollment to children who are homeless because of foreclosure or other economic hardship.”

As the good Rev. Wright says, “God bless America.”

H/T Calculated Risk

Aggressive Challenges to Property Tax Assessments Rising

This is not surprising.

People are struggling, and their assessed property value often is well over market rate, so it is no surprise that a rapidly growing industry is evolving to help people challenge property tax assesments, particularly among people attempting to sell their homes.

The fact that one has successfully lowered the taxes makes the home more salable.

Of course, it’s going to devastate the tax revenues of municipalities just as an economic downturn increases demand for their services.

U.S. Sits on Iran Weapons Report

The excuse is that it’s been that they’ve, turned it over to the Iraqi Government*to pressure Tehran to curb the flow of Iranian weaponry and explosives into Iraq.

Of course, these weapons are primarily going towards the militias of Dawa and ISCI, who are, nominally at least, the government in Iraq.

The reality is that they are doing what worked so well for Joe McCarthy. Claim to have a list, and use it as a club, even when no such list exists, or when such a list is so poorly made as to be laughable.

I imagine we’ll see selected leaks when Maliki attempts to use it for partisan political advantage during the provincial elections.

*An oxymoron if there ever was one.

The Government’s Secret Detention List

I’m wondering if I am on that list.

My guess would be that if martial law were to be declared, it would be in mid to late November, following a Democratic victory,* because it would be to cover up their own wrongdoing.

Christopher Ketcham of Radar Magazine makes the case that the US government has a list of 8 million people that they will detain without process if martial law is declared. That’s just under 3% of the population.

He makes a convincing case that the entire scene with Ashcroft in the hospital being browbeaten to sign a document was in fact a surveillance program connected to a, “so-called Continuity of Government (COG) programs”, centered in FEMA, where it evades the oversight done on what is normally considered the state security apparatus (FBI, CIA, other TLAs, etc.).

I’m not sure which is more depressing to me, the fact that this might be the plan of Bush and His Evil Minions, or the fact that I have so little faith in those career bureaucrats in the US state security apparatus to obey their vows to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States.

*And let’s be clear….At this point, that means Barack Obama. Even if all of FL and MI are seated. Unless he is caught with a live boy or a dead girl, he’s the nominee.
Not my preferred outcome, but I wanted Howard Dean in 2004 and Bill Bradley in 2000, so I’m used to it.
That’s right, the folks who f%$#ed up Katrina are responsible for the continued existence of a law based Democracy in the US.

Sebelius Vetoes Republican Attempt to Criminalize N***ers Voting

In Kansas, thankfully there aren’t quite enough Republithugs in the legislature to override her veto of their so-called “voter-ID bill”.

Interesting point was that she had already vetoed a similar bill last year, and they came back with one that eliminated the fee for an ID for low income Kansans.

They didn’t do that in the first place because they don’t want low income Kansans to vote.

House Armed Services Committee Votes to Cut European Missile Defense Program

The HASC has voted to cut $220 million from the Bush administration’s request for their European missile defense program, which would place 10 interceptor missiles in Poland, and the radar in the Czech Republic.

I think that this is less about the program in and of itself, and more about the diplomatic consequences of proceeding, particularly because it would allow a lame duck to tie his successor’s hands on this contentious issue:

Democrats argued that the European missile plan should not be rushed. House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt, a Democrat from South Carolina, says the program would divert funds from other U.S. defense needs, and possibly tie the hands of a new president.

“What we need to strike here is a balance, enough of a commitment to the project to let the Poles and Czechs know that we are not backing down on them, that the thing is still there it is still viable, still in the works, yet not so much commitment at this point that the next president, whoever he or she may be, does not have the flexibility to review this commitment,” Spratt said.

This has always been a dubious plan, as it does not cover much of the southern tier of NATO, and I believe that is more driven towards making Russia paranoid and hostile toward the US, because the Republicans believe that a new Cold War benefits them electorally.

The Senate voted to fully fund the program, so it will have to be resolved in conference committee.

Top CIA Official Bribed with “Sexual Companionship”

Kyle “Dusty” Foggo:

A new indictment of a former top CIA official alleges that he received bribes in the form of “sexual companionship” in exchange for helping a friend get an edge in landing multimillion-dollar contracts from the agency.

…..

The new indictment also includes an allegation that Foggo received sexual companionship and “enrichment of a mistress,” though the allegations are not detailed in the indictment.

If you recall, he was appointed by Porter Goss as Executive Director (EXDIR) of the CIA, the number 3 post.

You may recall that Goss opposed investigating the Plame leak, saying, “Somebody sends me a blue dress and some DNA, I’ll have an investigation.”

Well, I’m not certain of the dress color, but we probably have the DNA.

Seriously, you cannot make up sh#@ like this. If I put it in a script, and sent it to Hollywood, it would get sent back as “not credible”.

Congressional Polls Update

DSCC: Ronnie Musgrove leads Roger Wicker, who was appointed to replace Lott, by 8%, 48% to 40%. Obviously, as this is a partisan poll, it can be taken with a grain of salt, but any time an incumbent, even one who has been in office for just a few weeks is at 40%, they are in trouble

Rasmussen Reports™ has Kay Hagan(D) leading Liddy Dole(R) by 1%, 48% to 47% in North Carolina, well with in the margin of error, but with Dole as a prominent incumbent being below 50%, she’s got a fight.

They also have Marc Udall with a 6% lead over Bob Shaffer in Colorado, 47% to 41% in the race to replace retiring Senator Wayne Allard with a margin of ±4%.

D.C. Cir. to Comcast: “Making You Obey The Law Is Not A ‘Vendetta.’”

Care of Harold Feld’s Tales of the Sausage Factory.

One of the things I like about Harold Feld’s writings on the FCC regulatory process is that, in addition to being relatively easily understood, it’s also a fun read:

But the ultimate bitch slap to Comcast and its bully boys and useful idiots comes on page 11 n.2:

The briefs filed by Comcast, the intervenors, and the amici make assertions bordering on accusations of the Commission’s bad faith. We must presume an agency acts in good faith, Thomas v. Baker, 925 F.2d 1523, 1525 (D.C. Cir. 1991), but in any case we see no substance to these assertions. (emphasis added)

Or, to translate from the legalese: “Comcast, you and the rest of the cable industry need to get over yourselves and get a clue. The FCC requiring you to obey the law is not a ‘vendetta,’ even if previous FCC

Heh.

In this case, the Federal Court slapped down Comcast hard over its insistence that it needed an exemption from set top box interoperability rules.

My Daughter Had a Concert at School Tonite

It was painful, though no more painful than any other elementary school art activity…Children are works in progress.

My daughter sang in “chimes” and was in the orchestra.

As to the part of the concert without her?

Let’s just say that the jazz band did a version of the Mickey Mouse Club theme as a dirge…….

Tekeli li!!!!! Tekeli li!!!!! Tekeli li!!!!! Tekeli li!!!!! Tekeli li!!!!! Tekeli li!!!!! Tekeli li!!!!!