Year: 2008

View From North of the Border

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Murray Dobbin has an interesting perspective on the “harmonization” and “integration” of Canada with the US, Americanize Me? No Thanks. He thinks that it’s ill advised, and his first example is quite illustrative:

Now we find out that despite recommendations from the Canadian Pediatric Society and the Canadian Cancer Society that Health Canada dramatically increase the recommended daily does of Vitamin D, the federal agency refuses to do so. Why? Because it is committed to “harmonizing” Canadian nutrition standards with those in the United States.

The interesting thing about Vitamin D is that there are two sources for this, diet, and sunlight, as the human body manufactures it when the skin is exposed to ultraviolet.*

Given the specifics of Canada, further north, less sunlight, the idea that they would need more dietary D is abundantly clear.

More generally, he finds America as a government completely dysfunctional†, America as a society paranoid morass generally bereft of morality†, and America as an economy as an “emerging economic basket case on pace to self destruct.”†

It’s a good read, particularly for Canadians who need to deal with Stephen Harper style boneheads.

*It’s why we have white people in the world. The layer in the skin that manufactures vitamin is beneath the pigment layer, so paler people make more Vitamin D for a given amount of sunlight, so in light starved regions, it favors the pale.
†I Agree

WTF, 49% of the Vote? By a Dem? In MO-1?

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Well, they just had a special election in Missouri’s 1st congressional district.

No one got an outright majority, but the Democrat, Travis Childers, got 49% of the vote to the Republican Greg Davis’s 46%.

There is still a runoff, but note that in this this district Bush beat Kerry 62.24% to 37.03% in 2004.

The fact that a Democrat was going to the runoff is encouraging. The fact that the Democrat won the plurality of the votes is astonishing, particularly considering the fact that the RNCC outspent the DNCC by more than 2:1.

The cynic in me wonders how Dems will screw this up in the next 4-½ months. It will be difficult, but somehow they will manage.

Airbus Has a Neat Concept, but a Bogus Patent

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Airbus has filed a patent for what it considers an innovative trijet design.

What they are arguing is that three smaller engines will weigh less than two larger ones, that the noise from the third engine will be mitigated by the “trough” created by the tail configuration, and that the smaller engines will allow a shorter and lighter landing gear.

I don’t think that it’s going anywhere, because the two jet/three jet question has been answered now for some time, the additional maintenance, etc. just ain’t worth it.

As to the supposedly innovative idea of using the tail to mask the signature of rear mounted engines:

It’s been around for a while.

Possible Coverup in Duke Cunningham Affair

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The trial of Thomas Kontogiannis, the money man/money launderer of the Duke Cunningham scandal, appears under some sort of government blackout.

The government is saying that the details of the case, which are normally public record, are government secrets, because the government says so.

So very little of the plea has been revealed.

Given the history of the state secrets privilege, it was created in the 1950s, and the US government lied to the court in the case establishing the precedent, United States v. Reynolds, I’m inclined to think that this is more Bush DoJ shenanigans.

They are probably covering up for other corrupt Republicans, Rep. Lewis comes to mind.

Me Bad. Hillary Wanking on Autism Too

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You can read it here:

I am committed to make investments to find the causes of autism, including possible environmental causes like vaccines. I have long been a supporter of increased research to determine the links between environmental factors and diseases, and I believe we should increase the NIH’s ability to engage in this type of research. My administration will be committed to improving research to support fact-based solutions, and I will ensure that the NIH has the staff and funding to fully explore all possible causes of autism.

Just to be clear: the vaccine-autism link is a hoax.

The doctor who came up with it was in cahoots with the lawyers, and he had a patent on a junk science alternative.

He is now in the process of having his license to practice medicine stripped.

Economics Update

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Today, since they’ve been off the update for a while, I’d like to welcome back a monoliner insurer, specifically AMBAC which lost even more money than forecast, $3.6 billion.

However, they are looking to turning things around. Specifically, they have their “lawyers and forensic experts”looking at 17 big money losing contracts, targeting (it appears) Bear Stearns and First Franklin. The max losses were originally seen at 10-12%, and now they are staring down the barrels of over 80%, so they may have a good case.

We’ll be seeing a lot more of this, and insurers won’t be paying out in the near term without this sort of teardown of the contract and investment looking for evidence of deception of some sort.

In related news, bondholders recovery on bankruptcy has plunged, with B+ bonds going from around 42¢ on the dollar to less than 10¢.

This is not a liquidity crisis. It is an insolvency crisis.

The Fed, however, is still treating this as a liquidity crisis, because there is no cure for an insolvency crisis but the dissolution of the entities involved, and it will auction another $75 billion in Treasuries in exchange for pieces of the big sh%$pile.

Speaking of the sh%$pile Moody’s just downgraded 1,923 residential mortgage backed securities in the past to days.

It’s likely to get worse. Robert Shiller, who is one of the creators of Case-Shiller housing index, believes that house prices will fall more than 30% from their high, and likens this to the slump associated with the Great Depression.

In terms of the more general economy, we have UPS saying that it’s seeing a dramatic slowing in the U.S. economy, and in its business, and Target’s write offs on its credit card sales are soaring. They are at an annualized rate of 8.1% for March (ouch) up from a rate of 6.8% in February (ouch x2).

In currency, we already know about the Dollar cracking the $1.60 barrier, but now we are seeing a price hike driven by this, with Airbus raising prices on its planes.

We’re going to see a lot more currency driven inflation.

Obama Just Pissed Me Off

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I have been an involuntary student of conditions on the Autism spectrum by virtue of my son having Aspergers (see here, here, and here), so I have looked at the evidence (see here and here) and it is clear that there is no link.

I’ve also lambasted people who are putting their community and children at risk, because they are stupid and unthinking, which would, of course, include McCain’s claim that there is an explicit link.

Well, now we have Obama saying that the science is not yet settled on Autism and vaccines. While he does so in the context of promising additional funding for early interventions (BTW, Hillary was first on suggesting funding for this), by promoting this junk science, junk science that has sickenes thousands of children in the US every year, he pisses me off.

There are (very small) risks to vaccines, which is why the US government has a vaccine fund, but Autism is not one of them.

The anti-vaccine folks should be treated with nothing but disdain, much like the nut-job Mullahs in Northern Nigeria who sabotaged the polio eradication project because they thought it a secret plan to sterilize them.

Begich Makes It Official, He’s Running Against Stevens in Alaska

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Mark Begich will be running against Ted Stevens.

It’s been pretty much a done deal since February, and considering the fact that Stevens has gone from Uncle Pork to criminal in the voters minds, it’s a reasonable chance for a Dem pickup.

It helps that Begich is Mayor of Anchorage, as he will have an organization there, and around 45% of Alaska’s population live in the city, and around 57% of the population lives in the greater Anchorage metro area.

His campaign site is here.

Congresscritters Missing the Forest for the Trees

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So, Reps. Neil Abercrombie, D-HI, Lynn Westmoreland, R-GA have decided that a Congressional investigation of the college football bowl system is warranted.

They are missing the bigger point, which is that the US taxpayer is funding NCAA Division I sports are not a non profit activity, they are a for profit activity in which a cartel of institutions have conspired to prevent their employees, so-called “student atheletes”, from being paid, and for which alumni donations are tax deductible.

Even Now, Bush and His Evil Minions™ Can Leave Me Dumbstruck

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Every time that I think that the Bush Administration can’t get any more self serving venal and incompetent, they rais the bar.

This time, it’s the worst National Security Adviser ever, shortly to be the worst Secretary of State ever, Condoleeza Rice, who has just basically called Muqtada al-Sadr a c@cks#cker.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice mocked anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr as a coward on Sunday, hours after the radical leader threatened to declare war unless U.S. and Iraqi forces end a military crackdown on his followers.

Rice, in the Iraqi capital to tout security gains and what she calls an emerging political consensus, said al-Sadr is content to issue threats and edicts from the safety of Iran, where he is studying. Al-Sadr heads an unruly militia that was the main target of an Iraqi government assault in the oil-rich city of Basra last month, and his future role as a spoiler is an open question.

“I know he’s sitting in Iran,” Rice said dismissively, when asked about al-Sadr’s latest threat to lift a self-imposed cease-fire with government and U.S. forces. “I guess it’s all-out war for anybody but him,” Rice said. “I guess that’s the message; his followers can go too their deaths and he’s in Iran.”

This from a woman unwilling to announce her visits to Iraq in advance, who spends her whole time in a heavily fortified walled city, and has something like 1000 soldiers, and an equal number of mercenaries protecting her.

Un f#$@ing believable.

Worst President Ever

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GW Bush’s popularity is now has a 28% approve and 69% disapprove ratings, the worst ever.

The previous low was held by Harry Truman in Jan 1952 of 67% disapproval, and no doubt the 28% dead-enders will make comparisons, but the Avignon president is no Harry Truman.

66% of Republicans still approve of his job, once again showing C=MI*, though if they are true to form, they will all pretend to have hated him for most of his term within 18 months of his leaving office.

The pathological need to support the person in charge is a disturbing part of the human makeup.

*Conservatism=Mental Illness

B-2s Back in Air

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B-2 Bombers are flying again after their “safety pause” (let’s not call it a grounding).

Also, according to Aviation Week, while grounded, orders went out for an undisclosed component to be inspected, which is believed to be a part of the flight control system.

It could be an air data sensor, or an actuator, or something in the stabilization augmentation system, or pretty much any sensor or actuator in the flight controls, but my guess (and my record on this sucks just as badly as everything else) is something in the fuel system associated with center of gravity management.

Thielert’s Troubles: Criminal Investigations, and a Cash Crunch

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There are maybe one of two of you out there who recall a couple of posts (here and here) just under a year ago about Thielert, a company that seemed to be on the verge of “great things” with its line of turbocharged diesel commercial aircraft engines.

While the tech might still be first rate, and it does sound so, the company appears to be in serious financial, and possibly legal, trouble.

It appears that the company may be very near insolvency, either through booking non existent orders to puffing up the balance sheet, or through customers who are seriously late in making payments for products that are already shipped.

My money is on the second, as two (perhaps all) of the management board have been dismissed by the board of directors.

It’s a pity. It’s nice well developed tech.

Economics Update

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It’s official, we’re in a recession, because Bush is denying that we are in a recession – Apr. 22, 2008.

For more direct evidence of a recession, we have American drivers cutting back on driving and gasoline usage. When Americans stop driving, it means that the recession is here…big time.

In energy, oil broke $119/bbl, $110/bbl now appears to be the new $100/bbl

Across the border, Canadian Central Bank cut rates by 50 basis points, but even so, the Canadian dollar is still above parity with the US dollar, but they are definitely seeing the fallout from the US downturn.

In other currency matters, the dollar weakened to above $1.60:€1.00, though it’s now about $1.5992.

At the beginning of the year, it was $1.48 or so.

In things related to banking and real estate, we have to start with the elephant in the room, that GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are looking increasingly at risk, and a potential bailout would run to over $1 trillion, which might threaten the US government’s AAA rating.

Generally, bank profits are tanking, so it should come as no surprise that banks are retrenching.

Notably, Bank of America will be ending subprime operations, and tightening generally on mortgage standards, which makes it hard to understand why it’s buying Countrywide.

Citi needs more capital, so it’s offerring $6.2 billion in hybrid bonds, at 8.4%, with an A2 rating.

Hybrid bonds are….are….Ummm, a sort of hybrid between preferred stock and bonds…I’m confused, and they are described as “innovative”. I’ll try to get more information, but in the meantime, run away.

Finally, the Fed bailout of banks continues apace, reaching $360 billion with the sale yesterday.

No

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I believe that the Ken Silverstein’s analysis in Harpers Magazine, that “

The only way to reach a political settlement in the Middle East is for an American president to pressure Israel to make concessions.

” is deeply wrong.

Negotiations are an artifact of power, both current and future, and frequently neither side is completely sure of their power, particularly in the future.

By providing the realistic possibility of a deus ex machina, the intervention of the US, EU, and Russia actually make realistic negotiation less likely, because at their core, negotiations are an artifact of power, and by adding an external pressures, you distort the positions held by the principals.

One need only look at the “mediation” performed by Thabo Mbeki in Zimbabwe to see the downside of this.

Because the Palestinians and Israelis expect an external intervention, any, “last best offer” is likely to demand far more than they would otherwise, because both sides expect that a “road map” will favor the Palestinians, so an Israeli keep concessions in their back pocket, because they expect that they will be pushed beyond their final offer, and the Palestinians keep concessions in their back pocket for the same reason.

Certainly, the US (and EU, and Russia) can in some manner or another take upon themselves to act as guarantors of a final status agreement (a peacekeeping/border force, economic aid for an eventual Palestinian state, etc.), but when you have two negotiating that have an expectation of significant external intervention, it interferes with the basic function of negotiations.

I would also note that Carter’s trip comes exactly the wrong time. With 9 months left in the Bush regime, and the rest of the world considering Bush and His Evil Minions™ both disastrously incompetent and bellicose, nothing is going to move, because both sides in this dispute cannot see his successor as being any worse.

Senator, You are a Clueless Jerk, the Not-Lieberman Edition

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It’s not Lieberman, but it should come as no surprise that I am referring to the distinguished gentleman from Delaware, Joseph Biden….What the heck is it with Senators named “Joe”?

A prominent Senate Democrat on Wednesday said federal and local police should use custom software to monitor peer-to-peer networks for illegal activity, and he wants to spend $1 billion in tax dollars to help make that happen.

Of course, you have the obligatory screaming about Child Pr0n and terrorism, but it’s really about donations from the RIAA and the MPAA.

Additionally, the tracking method proposed, using MAC addresses, is fairly easily spoofed.

Moron.

A plea to both campaigns: Please do not select this blithering idiot as your Vice Presidential running mate.