Year: 2008

Clear Channel’s Going Private Likely to Collapse

It appears the deal for private equity firms Thomas H. Lee Partners LP and Bain Capital Partners LLC to take Clear Channel Communications’ Private is in the process of imploding.

The banks that are supposed to back the deal, “Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank AG, Credit Suisse Group, Royal Bank of Scotland PLC and Wachovia Corp”, appear willing to eat the termination fees, and the private equity firms aren’t to interested in going forward either.

The only folks looking eagerly toward closing the deal are the founders, the Mays family.

The article describes the process as, “The negotiations have turned into a bizarre “kabuki” dance, said one person familiar with the situation. To protect against litigation, neither the private-equity firms nor the banks want to leave any doubt that they are committed to closing the deal. But their public actions have little to do with what’s going on in private, say a number of people involved in the matter.”

Basically, the first person to blink gets sued.

The deal is supposed to be for $19 billion, and a breakup fee is likely to be around $600 million, and if the banks repackage and resell the loan, which they really have to do, they are saying that it would have to be at around a 15% discount, which seems to me with my imperfect non-MBA math to show that it is cheaper to back out.

I wish that there was a way for all of them, particularly the Mays family, the creator of the cancer of the airwaves, Clear Channel, to lose.

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Rabi’ al-awwal (ربيع الأول) is Arabic for Tet

It appears now that the truce with Moqtada al-Sadr is well and truly over. Even if hasn’t called for a revolt against the Maliki government, he has called for civil disobedience and self defense, and the shooting has begun.

The US blames the latest attacks on rogue Mahdi Army elements tied to Iran, but analysts say the spike in fighting with Shiite militants potentially opens a second front in the war when the American military is still doing battle with the Sunni extremists of Al Qaeda in Iraq.

“The cease-fire is over; we have been told to fight the Americans,” said one Mahdi Army militiaman, who was reached by telephone in Sadr City.

The force most closely linked to Iran is not the Mahdi Army. It is sectarian, but also Iraqi nationalist.

It isn’t helping that out west, the Sunni Militias are going strike because they have not been paid.

It would be comical if it were not for the killing.

The ones in the thrall of Iran, are Maliki’s guys. They fought for Iran in the war, and tortured Iraqi POWs at the request of the Iranians.

The Americans don’t get it. Sadr is not an Iranian puppet, he’s the strongest nationalist Shia out there, though this is not stopping David Petraeus, Bushes Bitch on the Euphrates, from claiming that all the attacks are coming from Iran.

Sir, you are a lying sack of sh%$ and a disgrace to your uniform, the men who serve under you, and the United States of America.

The press coverage on this side of the pond, excepting the Monitor and McClatchy, is universally poor, with claims that the civil disobedience causing the violence.

Eric Martin makes some very good points about how Malicki and the US undermined the truce int he first place.

He notes there has been a crackdown against the Mahdi army and its related political party in advance of provincial elections.

It’s pretty clear that the state security apparatus, and the US military, have been used in an attempt to influence these elections.

Ilan Goldenberg notes, when talking about the factors responsible for the current lull in the violence:

It’s hard to say for sure, which of these factors [The surge, the Anbar Awakening, the Sadr ceasfire, or the Completion of ethnic cleansing in most of Baghdad] was the most important. The Bush Administration will tell you it’s all about the troop levels. I’ve tended to believe it’s more of a mix and was most inclined towards the Anbar Awakening and the sectarian cleansing as the important factors. But when you look at the data it really seems to indicate that the Sadr ceasefire may have been the key.

More than anything else, Sadr wants us out.

He may get it before November.

So, the Plot Sickens with the Bear Bailout/Buyout

Well, we have the WaPo reporting on the increased share price, and calling it “a good deal” since the stock was selling for $70 two weeks ago.

Then again, you have a noted stock analyst saying that the true cost, which includes all the debts owed, will be close to $65/share, and you have Market Watch reporter Greg Robb calling the Fed and JP Morgan’s actions putting lipstick on a pig.

Economics Update

People are not feeling confident right now, Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 64.5, and the expectations index fell to 47.9, the latter being the lowest since December 1973.

Not surprisingly, the dollar is down as a result, though the fact that the Federal Reserve continues to run those printing presses like they were making toilet paper for rancid burrito day may have contributed.

In real estate, Freddie is seeing mortgage delinquencies increasing.

We are also seeing an explosion in payday loans, which means people are being abused by the system just as Bear shareholders are getting a freebie courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

Home Sales Rise (Not Really, We Are All Still Doomed)

So, according to so-called business reporters, we have a slight sales rise in home sales off of the biggest price drop ever, 10.7% year over year.

This might be a reasonable story, a tale of light at the end of the tunnel, except for the fact that by any reasonable metric, as Barry Ritholtz so ably notes, housing sales fell. They are down 28.3% from a year ago, and the uptick is actually a seasonal difference from January to February, which is conveniently ignored by the National Association of Realtors, who never tell the truth when a lie would serve.

People do not buy homes in January.

Morons See Dead Cat Bounce, Pretend It’s Schrodinger’s Cat

So, this mouthdrooling moron thinks that we have seen the bottom of a falling stock market when the Dow hit 11,740.15 on March 10.

The Fed has just dumped the gross national product of Guatemala in the stock markets, and you think that the bottom has been reached.

More phony numbers, and the DJI is always a phony number, from people who have a vested interest in dumping their crap off on you.

Sweet Cthulhu Chocolate Chip Chews, This is Stupid!!!!

So, Hillary Clinton is suggesting that Bush create, “an emergency working group on foreclosures”, staffed by such notables as Robert Rubin, Paul Volker, and ….wait for it….wait for it….wait for it….wait for it….Alan Greenspan.

Alan Greenspan the man who suggested in 2004 that the housing sector was, “in good shape”, we would all be better off if, “lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage”?????

I am completely at a loss for invective.

Re-Regulating the Financial Markets

The New York Times notes that there is a tug of war going on between the Bush Administration and Democrats over the type and extent of new regulations.

While I think that some centralization of the “regulatory alphabet soup” is a good idea, one of the things you are hearing, particularly from the Bushies, is that there is a, “tangled web of federal and state regulators”.

I think that this is Bush speak for cutting the states out of it, so actions like those of Elliot Spitzer* will be impossible.

On the other end of Pennsylania Avenue, you have Barney Frank, who I like, but truth be told, I think does not go far enough.

We have large organizations operating under the idea that they are too big to fail, and remember that Bear Stearns is a smallish player in this market, so this assesment is correct.

If the taxpayers are at risk, and they are, then the taxpayers must be allowed to regulate to minimize that risk.

Krugman makes this very point:

America came out of the Great Depression with a pretty effective financial safety net, based on a fundamental quid pro quo: the government stood ready to rescue banks if they got in trouble, but only on the condition that those banks accept regulation of the risks they were allowed to take.

Over time, however, many of the roles traditionally filled by regulated banks were taken over by unregulated institutions — the “shadow banking system,” which relied on complex financial arrangements to bypass those safety regulations.

Now, the shadow banking system is facing the 21st-century equivalent of the wave of bank runs that swept America in the early 1930s. And the government is rushing in to help, with hundreds of billions from the Federal Reserve, and hundreds of billions more from government-sponsored institutions like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks.

As does Noriel Roubini who believes that the actions taken to this point are band aids, and not solutions, furthermore, he notes that, “Only a few of such securities firms are systemically important and deserve the liquidity support of the Fed in case of a run on their liabilities”, which is a large portion of this crisis.

Many of these institutions have, through years of lax antitrust enforcement become “too big to fail”.

So, my first suggestion is that the continuing concentration of market among fewer and fewer firms in the financial arena needs to be reversed.

These firms need to be broken up into small pieces.

On CNN Money, of all places, Paul R. La Monica suggestion that investment banks need to be treated like children. It’s eye catching, but wrong, particularly when he suggests that the repeal of Glass-Steagall was still a good thing..

The behavior of the banks, or more accurately the individual people working in those banks, was quite mature, if amoral.

From top to bottom, the employees of these firms behaved in a manner consistent with those employees own personal best interests, as opposed to those of the firm or the market.

The name for such a system, where individual players arbitrage for their own personal best outcome is called Capitalism, by the way.

What we need to do is to ensure that taxpayers are not left on the hook down the road for decisions made for personal benefit now.

Among other things, this means that we need real regulations of wages and benefits in the financial services industries, with real consequences including asset forfeiture and jail.

People will continue to do stupid things for good results this quarter so long as their bonuses and promotions are a result of their performance in this quarter.

I would note that I have not yet come up with any specifics on how to limit excessive compensation for short term results beyond taxing all excessive taxes. I’ll put my thinking cap on.

The push for quarterly results is what leads to excessive leverage, which is what has led to many of the problems.

In 1929, you needed about 20¢ to buy $1.00 stock on margin. Following the Roosevelt regulations it was 75¢ to buy that same stock on margin, though this was lowered to 50¢ in the late 1970s.

Bear Stearns was leveraged on the order of 50 to one, or about .

Leverage is essential to a modern financial system working, but excessive leverage causes a collapse.

We need to put government auditors in the major financial firms today, with the power to review all records and investments, and to demand changes.

Also, there should be a change in taxes. If the rich have to be bailed out, and this appears to be the case, then they should make the down payments on that bail out.

I would also suggest that a surcharge be added to income tax to which no credits or deductions apply, starting at the salary of the President (currently $400K) with a 1% surcharge, and increasing by 1% for each multiple above that (so $400k-$800K would be 1%, $800K-$1.2M would be 2%, etc), to a maximum marginal rate of 75% at around $180 million a year, which would apply to all forms of compensation (H/T to Dean Baker, see below, for noting the total compensation thing).

It would serve to put a brake on executive compensation, and generated some much needed revenue for the treasury.

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC, suggest instead that we legislate a cap on total compensation in the financial industry of $1 million.

It appeals to my vengeful side, but I think that my suggestion is better. It applies to overpaid athletes, drugged out pop stars, and worthless hotel heiresses too, and provides resources to create a better and more just society.

*No, I mean his legal actions against Wall Street, when the FTC, SEC, etc., led by Bush and His Evil Minions were letting the foxes run the henhouse.
Let’s be clear, I am keeping my promise not to mention They Who Must Not Be Named. I don’t see no names, do you?

Stupid Arguments

Josh Marshall has it right when he calls out Evan Bayh for being stupid, when he suggests that electoral votes should count in the super delegates decision.

He does not go far enough though.

All the arguments, whether popular votes, delegates, etc. should be irrelevant to the super delegates decision.

They are a 20% swing vote, and their concerns should be as follows (in order of descending importance):

  1. Who will be the best president of the United States of America
  2. Who is best for the party.
  3. Who is most likely to be elected.

Now it’s clear that things like delegates, popular vote, and fund raising, etc. are factors in those concerns, but they are not the concerns themselves.

They are the trees, not the forest.

787 Needs Wing Box Design

So, the latest update on Boeings increasingly delayed 787 has us seeing that Boeing and partner Fuji heavy industries will have to redesign the center wing box, because it is too weak.

Boeing’s delays on the 787 now rival that of Airbus on the A380, only once the problems with the European super jumbo came out, the all came out, and we are still getting this drip, drip, drip of bad news from Seattle Chicago.

This is yet another reason why the Boeing wonks who suggest that the 787 should have been used instead of the 767 are full of it, BTW.

The USAF needs its tanker sooner, rather than later.

Got Everything Wrong

So says John Cole of Balloon Juice.

While it is amusing to read that he finds it, “amazing I could tie my shoes in 2001-2004“, my question is more direct. What the hell are your going to do to fix it?

I’ve wrong on most of my predictions, but I have not pushed policy prescriptions on the basis of those predictions.

You were were more than wrong, you were an accessory to evil, and an enthusiastic one at that.

You contributed to making us less safe, killing in excess of half a million Iraqis, driving more than a million from their homes, and damaged the United States for decades to come economically, diplomatically, and morally.

You cheer led for this evil.

The Julius Streicher, the publisher of Der Stürmer was put to death for his cheer leading, and while your misdeeds are far more milder, simply saying, “oops, sorry”, does not cut it

What Are you going to do to make it right?

Signs of the Apocalypse: Fox News Edition

First, Fox and Friends anchor Brian Kilmeade walks off the set over constant Obama bashing, though to be fair, they also made fun of his background as a sports caster, and then Chris Wallace also on FOX and Friends, objects to similar behavior.

The Fux Newsies were objecting to the bashing over the phrase, “typical white person”.

If it were just Chris Wallace, I would assume that his father, Mike Wallace, had dope slapped him over it, but two news anchors essentially defending Obama?

I’m expecting to see the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man.

Israel’s Newest F-16s Grounded on Formaldehyde Concerns

High levels of Formaldehyde have been found in the cockpits’ of F-16I’ss.

The F-16 I (see picture below), is a variant unique to the IAF, with conformal tanks and a spine for additional avionics, and given the IAF’s specific needs, it likely has an air conditioning system tailored to this equipment, which is likely the source of the contamination.

It could come from combustion, but the path from combustor to cockpit would be unlikely.