Bush Leadership in Meltdown Troubles Investors
Yeah, heck of a job, Paulie.
Year: 2008
Signs of the Apocalypse: I Agree With E. J. Dionne Jr.
OK, Legitimate Issue on the MI Revote, NOT Stonewalling
In discussing a possible revote, I noted that I thought that objections being raised by the Obama campaign were a specious attempt to stone wall.
I’ve finally come across some of the specific issues that they have with a revote, and they are in fact quite valid.
One question is who do you allow to vote. Unlike a lot of other states, Michigan has an open primary, which means that you can choose which ballot you want when you walk into the polling area, regardless of party affiliation.
To quote Chairman Kaga, “As Memory Serves”, there were a lot of Democrats who chose to vote for Mittmentum, because they thought that he would be particularly weak in the general.
So, there is now an issue regarding what to do with the people who voted on the Republican ticket.
This is a completely legitimate issue.
My preferred solution would be to simply allow only people who were registered Democrats as of the date of the first election to participate in any revote, regardless of which ballot they took in January. I think that open primaries create too much mischief, particularly in this instance.
In any case, this issue has a number of possible solutions, and it cuts to the very core of any possible revote, so it is a very valid concern, and needs to be addressed to the satisfaction of both campaigns.
Me bad on calling it stonewalling
‘State secrets’ privilege fuels surveillance bill battle – Yahoo! News
In the discussion of the House FISA bill, I’ve frequently discussed the telco immunity, it also represents a a significant change to the much abused state secrets privilige.
It now requires that evidence be presented to the judge, though not the litigants.
This is important because the state secrets privilege has been rotten to its core from its first use, which the Supreme Court heard as U.S. v. Reynolds, that had no actual state secrets involved.
The government just lied to the court in claiming that the B-29 involved in a crashwas on a secret mission, when the aircraft was not on a secret mission.
They simply did not want to admit that the crash was caused by grossly negligent maintenance.
The state secrets privilege should be abolished.
New Jersey Entering Personal Mandate Health Insurance
We are moving towards some sort of single payer system in the US. Personally, I favor a NHS, but your milage may vary.
The reason that we are seeing personal mandates right now is because ERISA, passed in 1974, pretty much prohibits most other sorts of action.
The best short term solution is to remove the preemption clause of that law, because in addition to preventing meaningful healthcare reform, it provides a ‘get out of jail free’ card to the worst actors in the insurance business.
XM360 Gun for MCS Variant of the Future Combat System
While I think that the entire manned vehicle portion of the Future Combat System is a waste*, there are some technologies that look to be interesting from a military perspective.
Case in point, the lightweight XM360 120mm gun for the MCS (Tank) variant of the FCS-MGV†.
It’s about a ton lighter than the 120mm gun used on the Abrams, with significant reductions in recoil, both due to a more effective recoil system, and because it uses a muzzle break that is compatible with sabot rounds.
It achieves the weight savings through a high strength steel barrell with a composite wrapping to keep tension on the barrel, and by using largely titanium components in the recoil assembly, much like the lightweight towed M777 155mm howitzer.
Of interest, the gun is also capable of indirect fire out to 12 km, which would be an improvement on M256 used on the Abrams, which does not have this capability.
Image courtesy of Wiki.
*Full disclosure, I worked on the Future Recovery and Maintenance Vehicle, FRMV, “wrecker” variant from 2003-2006 at United Defense (later BAE Systems after the Carlyle Group sold me to buy Dunkin Donuts).
†Future Combat Systems-Manned Ground Vehicle. These are the ones that are the tanks and APCs. As opposed to the various unnmanned vehicles, etc. that form the full FCS.
Mo Tanker, Mo Tanker, Mo Tanker
I think that I missed a couple of things from the March 10 Aviation Week issue that I need to address now, specifically some rather telling comments in the “Hometown Hubris” article.
Interesting stuff:
- IBoeing’s proposal was, “far too risky and expensive”. The 767-200LRF “Frankentanker” used the, “767-200 airframe; over-wing exits from the -300; floors, doors and structurally enhanced wings from the -300F; a cockpit, tail section and flaps from the -400ER, a completely new and not yet produced configuration.
- By comparision, the A-330 proposal was nearly identical to the Australia tanker currently in test.
- Boeing felt that, “Air Force purchase of tankers capable of hauling large amounts of cargo could jeopardize Boeing’s already tenuous C-17 production line”.
- It’s worth noting that Boeing has already purchased long lead C-17 items for 10 airframes in the expectation of more orders.
- Boeing did consider the 777, and considered pitching both the 767 and 777, but decided on pitching just the 767. There are claims that someone “discouraged” submittal on the 777, but no name or time are given.
- The U.S. requirements were similar to Australia’s. The Australian defense forces wanted a tanker that could refuel 3+ fighters, and carry maintenance crew and spares to a distant Pacific airport. The smaller airports of Europe and the Middle East were not as important in their scenarios.
- The 767 could not do this. You would need a 2nd freighter to carry crew and spares.
Now I get it. They pitched the 767, and not the 777 because they thought that the latter would compete with the C-17.
Additionally, to the degree that there was a short field requirement, the 777’s short field performance is lacking, with its wing optimized toward the cruise efficiency end of the spectrum,
Note, the boom is not rocket science. McDonnell Douglas developed their own in the 1970s, and Airbus is testing theirs for Australia as as I write.
THIS Was in the CORNER??????
Talk about signs of the Apocalypse, when Charles Murray, the bigot who wrote The Bell Curve, posted on the Corner Blog of the National Review, a Magazine that never failed out to speak out in favor of bigotry and racist policies until it was too late to make a difference, just described Barack Obama’s speech as, “just plain flat out brilliant”.
You know, if I was hoping for the Rapture, I’d be looking this as a bigger sign than anything happening in Israel.
Old Man McCain Has “Senior Moment” on Iraq and Iran
Yes, the sick old man, the one whose only claim to the presidency is his knowledge of foreign policy, claimed that Al Queida was being trained by Iran, and Joe Lieberman had to literally whisper in his ear to get him to correct it.
John McCain has no foreign policy experience, he just wants more war all the time, which is what the very serious people inside the Beltway&trade call foreign policy experience.
100 years more war in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and who knows where else this doddering old fool would take us.
Economics Update
Any time that the Fed cuts rates, it’s the lead economic story, and today the Federal Reserve huts its discount rate by 75 basis points to 2.25%.
There is not a whole bunch left for the Fed to do. At the rate that they have been cutting this year, they will be at zero some time in July.
We are in a pickle, and Paul Krugman is right when he says that at best we are almost in a liquidity trap, if we aren’t already there. The Fed cutting rates has very little effect on interest rates for the rest of the economy right now.
As a result of the rate cuts, and the inflationary pressures involved, Oil appears to be heading back up.
Additionally, low interest rates tend to push the dollar down. The dollar spent most of today above $1.58:€1.00, though it’s now strengthened to a bit less than $1.57, about 1% below the all time low of $1.5904:€1.0000 reached on Monday.
Our economy in 1000 words.
Of course the real economy, the one that most of not on Wall Street live in, had a few statistics too, with Industrial output dropping 0.5% in February and inflation on the move, with the core producer price index increasing by 0.5% in February.
And it’s not just our economy, it’s both pillars of “Anglo-Saxon Hypercapitalism”, with banks the Bank of England’s emergency 3 day loans totalling £5 billion obeing oversubscribed by almost 500%.
It also looks like Lehman may be the next brokerage to have to deal with a run on its accounts. It’s shares were down 39% in early trading Monday, though it had largely recovered today.
One source of revenue for the various financial houses, private equity buyouts and other forms of leveraged merger and acquistion activity, appear to be drying up. No one wants to lend right now.
It probably does not help that we have it looks like a new star is born in the ppathetic theater that is the monoliner insurance debacle, FGIC, which posted a $1.89 billion loss. If people cannot trust the insurers to pay off if you default, then maybe they don’t want to fund your ill conceived takeover scheme.
This applies to foreigners, who not only are not interested in investing in American businesses, but are avoiding what used to be the safe haven of US Treasuries.
Finally, housing starts hit a 17 year low, though the article optimistically states that it is “above forecast”.
A pox on economic reporters. A little truth a little earlier, and perhaps housing starts would not be the lowest since Poppy Bush was in the White House.
Hoovervilles Return in Video
I’ve written before about the return of Hoovervilles (Favelas), and how we have some (very depressing) video showing the tent cities of the foreclosed in Los Angeles:
Bushvilles, or maybe Greenspanvilles, actually.
A Correction on Dean Baker’s Tax Proposal
I just had an email exchange with him, and he referred me to his (along with Robert Polli and Marc Schaberg) paper, Securities Transaction Taxes for U.S. Financial Markets, and he does in fact call for a sales tax on most securities.
ABSTRACT: This paper examines the viability of security transaction excise taxes (STETs) as one policy tool for promoting a more stable financial environment, specifically with respect to the U.S. economy. Contrary to a large recent critical literature, we show that a STET can be designed without creating large distortions between segments of the financial market. We also show that a modest STET for the U.S.—beginning with a 0.5 percent tax on equity trades and scaled appropriately for other financial instruments—would generate substantial new government revenues, on the order of $100 billion per year.
The link is to the abstract, and the whole paper is a 55 page double spaced PDF, which you need to read on paper, with a highlighting and a regular pen so you can take notes.
It’s not a light read, but it’s a good read.
On a more general level, I think that, given the current downturn, we will see a large expansion in taxes at all level, with things like internet download sales being taxed, and that we will see an aggressive pursuit of online and mail order sales taxe evasion too.
The state and local governments will have no choice.
Then again, considering my record on predictions, and the fact that the only formal training I ever had on economics was high school, where I did a presentation on microeconomics*, what the heck do I know.
*Microeconomics is a study of the economics of individual businesses, as opposed to entire economies. I prefer it, because the systems are not so huge and complex that cause and effect breaks down. Macro economics sometimes makes my head hurt.
Diarist Strike at DailyKos?
First, in the interest of full disclosure, while I still read there, I have been banned from posting there, with good cause, as I was sock puppeting.
I still read it, truth be told, I think that the diaries are more interesting than the front pagers, but you have perhaps a dozen front pagers, and something like 1000 times as many diarists daily.
I started coming across various comments, some snark, and some serious, and finally tracked this all down to one user who has announced his withdrawal from Kos for the duration of the nominating process.
His complaints were justified. The place has been nuts on this lately. Hell, so has Americablog, MyDD (on the other side), Oliver Willis, Taylor Marsh, etc…..
Let’s make this clear, to quote myself, “If I had a choice I would vote for a syphilitic goat,” ahead of any Republican.
The shrillness level, and not just on Kos, regarding the Democratic Party nominations is in-bloody-sane.
Take a chill pill.
A Big Wet Kiss, With Tongue, and Possibly on the Genitals, to the Upper Management of Bear Stearns, Courtesy of the New York Times
Maybe I’ve grown hard hearted in my middle age, but somehow, the plight of upper management at Bear Stearns does not inspire the empathy in me that it does Landon Thomas Jr. of the New York Times.
Bear Stearns has always been one of the shadier brokerages, with line fuzzing being a part of their investment strategy, so I’m just not upset that James E. Cayne “billionaire just over a year ago when Bear’s stock soared past $160, his 5.8 million shares are now worth about $28 million at Monday’s closing price of $4.8”.
Nor am I distressed that, “Some executives had moved quickly, putting their weekend homes on the market”.
Because of their work there are now people with no home at all.
And then there are the poor investors, “Bear executives were not the only big losers. Joseph Lewis, the Bahamas-based financier, invested $1 billion at prices above $100 last year, and top institutional investors like Morgan Stanley, Legg Mason and Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strauss, a value investor in Dallas, have been recent buyers of the stock.”
Boo F*&%ing Hoo.
California Mulls Tax on Internet Sales
It looks unlikely that the tax on downloaded purchases will pass, but as state revenues implode, we will see a lot more of this, along with aggressive pursuit of people who are already evading sales tax through online sales.
I expect 2009 to be a banner year for lawsuits filed against Amazon, eBay, etc. for customer purchase information, so that sales taxes due can be pursued.
Disgraceful.
Representatives Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Kendrick Meek have declined to support Democratic candidates running against Republicans incumbents in Florida.
Here’s the kicker. If you want a house leadership position, and Meek is a member of the 30-Something Working Group, and has been a vice chairman of the DCCC, and Wasserman Schultz is co-chair of the Red to Blue committee.
These are leadership positions. If you take those positions, you have an obligation to do your damn job.
I don’t care if your daughter is running as a Republican, and her alleged rapist is running as a Democrat, you work for the Democrat. If you can’t hack it, then go and be a back bencher.
We need to go after both of these folks in the 2010 primaries, hard.
Money quote on the real reason:
However, Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, which tracks political campaigns, said the lack of support from top Democrats could make donors leery.
”Debbie Wasserman Schultz is a favorite of leadership, somebody on the move,” Rothenberg said. “When somebody like that doesn’t want to be a major player in taking on a Republican, that’s a signal.”
Yet Rothenberg says the situation is not without precedent: He noted several Republican and Democratic senators from the same states honor nonaggression pacts.
Both Meek and Wasserman Schultz have benefited from a close affiliation with the U.S.-Cuba Democracy PAC, which since its founding in 2003 has contributed $22,000 to Wasserman Schultz’s campaign committee and $10,500 to Meek’s.
Wasserman Schultz said the PAC support played no role in her decision, but she acknowledges she’s closer to the Republican incumbents on Cuba issues than she is to the Democratic challengers, who favor easing restrictions on family travel to the island.
When Castro dies, can we send tham all back to Cuba? Let them f$%# up that country.
Spinal Tap Gardener Dies in Bizarre Gardening Accident
Me bad, it was ABBA drummer Ola Brunkert who died in a bizarre gardening accident, not John “Stumpy” Pepys of Spinal Tap.
Yes, my joke is in very poor taste.
Bear Stearns Share Holders Consider Lawsuit
You know, when you sold the cow for those magic beans, no one guaranteed you that the beans were magic. A lawsuit is just sour grapes.
Bear Stearns have been the “Bad Boyz” of Wall Street for years, and you knew what your were buying.
A Brief History of Wiretapping
Obama Campaign in Full Stonewall Mode in Michigan, and Florida Says No Vote
That’s the only explain the various chicken egg objections of Obama supporters, who won’t say if they support a concept of a revote unless they have finished legislation, but also say it’s not worth coming up with finished legislation unless they have sign on by both campaigns.
There is only one real issue here, making sure that the already broke state of Michigan is not left holding the bag on the cost.
In related news, the Florida Democratic party has said there will be no revote.
Truth be told, what happened in Florida was much more a Republican effort, the Dems tried to change the date, but rules are rules.
No delegates may be a good thing, because it will lead more people to question the role of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. It’s an accident of history that does not need to be repeated, particularly in South Carolina.
The worst solution is Chris Dodd’s where the delegates are split 50/50. That says, “the voters be damned, but the political big wigs should get their junket to Denver.”
Also, the super delegates, who were largely the folks who voted to set those dates at that time, should be excluded too.