Because no one in that entire state can count.
They still haven’t finished the tally of the caucuses there. In fact, they don’t expect to be done before the 29th.
Year: 2008
Economics Update
Well, gasoline prices hit all-time high today, and oil prices hit another record too.
Interesting thing though, at the start of the day, prices were down on increased inventories.
Oil Prices are rising because the dollar is falling now.
In the ever entertaining world of monoliner insurance, MBIA and Fitch Ratings are in a pissing contest. MBIA dropped them as a ratings service, because Fitch thinks that they should be downgraded.
MBIA and AMBAC’s debt is junk in reality, no matter what S&P, Moody’s, or Fitch says.
Speaking of Moody’s, they are forecasting a big drop in earnings, down from $2.17-$2.25/share to $1.90-$2.00, which tanked their stocked.
The GSE’s stock tanked too, with Fannie Mae falling 6% and Freddie Mac falling 3%. It turns out that the relaxed lending limits has the market spooked that this will lead them into more losses, which, of course, it will.
If I had to make a bet between Fannie and Freddie, I’d go with Freddie though. their CEO has a good grasp on reality, he thinks that the housing market is only 1/3 of the way to the bottom.
I’m a bit more of a bear than he is, but I think that Richard Syron is a member of the reality based community.
Despite the rate cuts, and the talk out of the Fed about more rate cuts, mortgage rates are up, and applications are down as a result.
In the more general doom and gloom scenarios, I present the following:
Citigroup is having to pump $1 billion into six of its internal hedge funds. I guess that they have to sell another piece of themselves to some Arab sovereign wealth fund.
Finally, we have ING New Zealand suspending withdrawals from two of their CDOs.
New Zealand???? New F#$@ing Zealand? Whisken Tango Foxtrot.
The meltdown is now fully global.
Clinton Camp Stepping Away From Ferraro
Pretty tepid steps away though, “We disagree with her,” said spokesman Howard Wolfson.”
I’m sorry, I want to draft Gore or Howard Dean at this point.
At the very least, it appears that the Obama Campaign is learning to bitch slap back.
And of course, Olbermann, who has been hatin on Hillary since before Super Tuesday has a Special Comment.
Between real racism (Ferraro), phony accusations of Racism, gay baiting, and just all around stupidity, I’m tempted to write in Howard Dean in November.
Spitzer Resigns
One wonders who authorized the investigation, but that will have to wait until January 22, 2009.
Judith Miller in Drag
Well, it looks like Judith Miller style neocon warmongering is not dead at the New York Times. Yes, we now have new members of the Leonard Pinth-Garnell school of journalism, William Broad and David Sanger.
Short version of the story, is that the NIE saying that Iran had halted nuke weapons work is bunk, and they may have a nuke by next year.
This, along with Fallon’s firing, is a pretty good indicator that Bush and His Evil Minions™ want to bomb Iran before Jan 21 2009.
This is why the two Democratic nominees need to say specifically that any order to attack Iran in the absence of a congressional authorization would be an illegal order, and that, if elected, they would prosecute soldiers who obey illegal orders.
Those nuclear warheads that were “misplaced” a few months back were not “misplaced” it was an attempt to stage them for a nuclear first strike.
Thanks to Digby for the catch.
Independent Appraisers May Cost Home Buyers More
Andrew Cuomo cut a deal with the GSE’s to require independent appraisers, and since the GSE’s buy up and resell about 70% of the mortgages out there, this is thankfully going to become the norm.
CNN Money is now warning that independent appraisers will end up increasing mortgage fees, particularly since now each lender needs a separate appraisal.
The financial press is very big on showing these costs, but they are still far less than the costs that are currently being incurred by all of us as a result of the housing bubble.
Warren Buffett Buying Railroads
Buffet does not always back winners, but his record is remarkably good, so the fact that he is buying into BNSF is significant.
Given that energy prices are only going up, and that rail is the most energy efficient mode of ground transport (maybe Buffet should look at Barge companies too), it seems like a no brainer.
Over the road long haul trucking is more expensive, at least when one factors out the subsidized roads, and more polluting, so the long term prognosis for the industry is good.
FWIW, I’m not a rail buff*, though I was a locomotive structures engineer at GE Transportations for a couple of years in the 1990s†, but I think that it is an industry and a technology that has been under utilized in the US.
*Rail buffs are the folks who staked out the prototype shop at GE to see the new AC6000 on tests in 1996.
†Damn!!! It does seem that I’m the Kevin Bloody bacon of employment, doesn’t it.
Net Neutrality as Anti-Trust
The Judiciary Committee has had hearings on this.
It’s a good sign, but I think that it’s more inside baseball than anything else. Specifically, has been before Ed Markey’s Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet of the Energy and Commerce Committee, and in order to get it in front of the Justice Committee, they are looking at putting it in antitrust legislation.
The fact that two committees are now competing to get this passed is a good sign for network neutrality legislation.
Local and State Governments Call for Changes in Bond Rating System
One of the peculiarities of bond rating is that state and local bonds are typically rated much lower for a given level of risk than those of private entities, which requires that they purchase bond insurance.
This is the still lucrative core of the now almost insolvent monoline insurers business.
A number of public officials have expressed their concerns to the rating agencies:
On March 4, Bill Lockyer, the treasurer of California, sent a five-page letter to Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s Corp. and Fitch Ratings asking for justice.
`”State and local governments almost never default on the bonds they issue,” the letter says. “The safety of municipal bonds is grounded in a fundamental fact: a city or state simply is not going to go out of business during the life of its bond issue.”
The letter was signed by 14 other state and local officials, including Michael Murphy of Washington, Michael Fitzgerald of Iowa and Patrick Born, the chief financial officer of Minneapolis. I mention these three in particular because they are public finance veterans who really understand the business.
Maybe every one shouldn’t be rated AAA, the letter asserts. Just most of them.
They are absolutely right.
As the system stands now, most state and local governments have to buy insurance in order to get an AAA rating, but the risk of default is minuscule compared to commercial AAA bonds.
House Votes to Create Outside Ethics Panel
This involved a lot of arm twisting, and the divide appears to be between older and newer representatives, I’m not sure that this proposal will make it past the Senate though.
Austan Goolsbee Blowback in Canada
I think that it’s increasingly clear that the leak of this story was orchestrated by Steven Harper and his bully boys, in this case Michael Wilson, ambassador to the US, though the underlying facts, that Goolsbee said it’s just politics, appear to be true.
The fact is that Harper is in charge of an unpopular minority government, and having an election in parallel with the US would probably cut against them, so now is a good time for the opposition to get a no-confidence vote.
The Canadian people are almost as sick of Bush as the American people, and by holding elections near the same time, it makes the choice clear.
Any followers of Canadian politics want to explain why the opposition is not trying to get snap elections?
Bush Political HUD Staffers Too Stupid for Email
You may have heard of HUD Secretary Alphonso Jackson.
He was the one who said in a public speech, that he would not make grants to Democrats.
Well, it now appears that he cut off funding to the Philadelphia Housing Authority because they refused to give a vacant lot to a friend of his.
The housing authority sued, and their email records have been introduced into evidence, and it’s ugly*.
After Philadelphia’s housing director refused a demand by President Bush’s housing secretary to transfer a piece of city property to a business friend, two top political appointees at the department exchanged e-mails discussing the pain they could cause the Philadelphia director.
“Would you like me to make his life less happy? If so, how?” Orlando J. Cabrera, then-assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, wrote about Philadelphia housing director Carl R. Greene.
“Take away all of his Federal dollars?” responded Kim Kendrick, an assistant secretary who oversaw accessible housing. She typed symbols for a smiley-face, “:-D,” at the end of her January 2007 note.
Cabrera wrote back a few minutes later: “Let me look into that possibility.”
*I don’t just mean ugly, I mean ugly even by the standards of the Bush administration, which is makes this AMC Pacer ugly.
Merrill Lynch Bear Says this Will be Ugly
A prominent bear, Merril Lynch economist David Rosenberg, is saying that will be the worst one since the 1970s.
I think that it will be worse, because we are in a debtor economy, and bills will be coming due sooner, rather than later.
In fact, I think that some of the indicators may show it to be more profound than that of the 1930s.
Here’s why:
- In the 1930s, we were a net exporter of oil, now we are a net importer of oil.
- In the 1930s, the rest of the industrialized world was still suffering from the shocks of WWI, which had left the US largely unscathed.
- The US was running a trade surplus.
- The Federal government was running a budget surplus.
- The amount of leverage and risk are far higher now than in 1930.
- The US industrial base has been decimated over the past 35 years.
- Consumer savings is non-existent.
- We have crushing defense expenditures.
- The dollar is overvalued, meaning that we will be experiencing a foreign exchange driven inflation.
Note, however, that but I’m an engineer, not an economist, dammit*!
*I love it when I get to go all Doctor McCoy!!!
Really, Really, Really Bad Ideas, Maryland Edition
The Legislature is looking at changing the law to allow for profit debt counseling services to operate in MD.
The change is being driven by Columbia based AscendOne Corp.:
AscendOne’s business practices are being reviewed by attorneys general in Maryland and several states, government sources briefed on the investigations said. The sources asked to remain anonymous because the investigations are ongoing.
We have an industry with a reputation for dishonesty and fraud. One where the business is exploding because of the requirement for credit counseling under the new clusterf*** US bankruptcy law, so at the behest of one of the dubious actors in this dishonest industry, the legislature is looking at making things even worse.
Sounds like business as usual in Annapolis.
Andre Carlson (D) Wins IN Congressional Special Election
54-43 against the Republican, though there is still a May primary and the November general.
When the Financial Times of London Sounds Like the Workers Daily World, The Times are a Changing
London has long had a policy of allowing rich foreigners to live there tax free.
FT columnist Martin Wolf looks at proposals to eliminate this immoral give away to the rich, and finds that too many people in the UK subscribe to the Leona Helmsley way of doing thing.
We live in strange times, as evidenced by his concluding paragraph:
Yet the experience also shows that the case for a simple, neutral and stable fiscal system, which taxes the worldwide incomes of all long-stay residents on the basis of ability to pay, is overwhelming. As soon as one departs from that principle one enters in a maze of special pleading or invidious distinctions, in which failed ideas of industrial policy – subsidising winners through the tax system – return to the fore. If the application of that great principle means some rich people leave the country, so be it.
(Emphasis mine)
Obama Wins in Mississippi
About 60:40, as the polls predicted.
Now we are doomed to 6 weeks of pundits without any elections to prove them wrong.
Help me Stephen Colbert, you’re my only hope.
House Fails to Override Bush Veto of Anti-Torture Bill
I’m not surprised, but I am disappointed.
Anyone who voted to uphold the veto, which includes 3 Dems, and does not include 5 Republicans are criminally complicit.
Unexplained Testicle Sighting Among Congressional Democrats
The house is completely defying Bush on the FISA wiretap update proposal.
Instead of immunity, they are putting forward giving, “the federal courts special authorization to hear classified evidence and decide whether the phone companies should be held liable.” Meaning that their answer to Bush’s demand for a coverup is even more judicial overview with regard to spying on Americans.
Word that I’ve read is that the freshman Democrats are very opposed to immunity, and my not so educated guess is that when they went on recess, that the reps got hundreds, if not thousands, of “attaboys” from theid constituents.
The Bush administration hates the bill, and the response for John Conyers and Sylvestre Reyes is brutal:
The Administration, which has refused to even attend negotiation sessions between the House and the Senate, has now apparently launched another round of scare tactics and falsehoods. The American people expect government officials to wrestle with these difficult issues and reach common sense solutions that protect Americans from terrorism and preserve our civil liberties. Unfortunately, the President’s advisors seem more inclined to issue ‘my way or the highway’ press releases concerning a bill the Administration hasn’t even read. The Congress will continue to give this issue the careful consideration it deserves and we hope the Administration will change course and join us in this effort.
I don’t know who put some steel in their spine, but it feels good.
FWIW, Patrick Leahy, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, who got bunked by Reid on immunity, likes the House bill too.
So does the EFF.
Geraldine Ferraro, Please STFU!
This is not “crossing a line” it’s transparently idiotic.