Year: 2008

Anti-Musharraf Government Formed in Pakistan

The PPP and PML-N have formed a coalition government, and they have almost 2/3 of the seats in Parliament.

In order to change the constitution, they would need a 2/3 majority, with impeachment requiring the same numbers, but their current majority appears to be enough to reinstate judges.

I don’t think that Musharraf is long to his post as president, and in fact, if the judges are reinstated, they may rule his last election to that post to be illegal.

787 Delayed Again

This is not the end of the world, any more than the delays on the Airbus A380 were, but there has been another 3 month slippage on the program, with the first flight moving from March to June.

It’s about a 1 year delay.

These are largely due to issues with suppliers, who have had much more authority than in previous aircraft, so one wonders if this might lead to a more centralized for the successor to the 737, which is likely next on Boeing’s plate.

Economics Update

It looks like people are starting to notice that the cost of groceries are going through the roof. According to the article, Bush’s dumbass corn-ethanol program, increased demand from overseas because the dollar has fallen, and increased energy costs are the primary drivers.

Then we have experts saying that Banks face a “systemic margin call” to the tune of nearly half a trillion dollars, according to analysts at JP Morgan.

“Systemic Margin Call” is a nice way of saying that the credit markets are imploding.

Thornburg Mortgage is teetering on the edge of liquidation as a result of more specific margin calls. They do not have the capital to repay their loans, and this will lead to more of their loans becoming non-conforming, resulting in more capital.

Thornburg is not the first, and it’s nowhere near the last.

Samantha Power Resigns

My concolences, and this does not bode well for the Obama campaign.

For the past few weeks, Hillary Clinton and the her campaign have been bitch slapping Barack Obama and his campaign, and this is just another step.

For the past 25+ years, the Republicans have used what Josh Marshall calls, the Bitch Slap Theory of Politics, and Hillary and her folks know it, and get it, and are using it on Obama.

The theory is as follows:

One way — perhaps the best way — to demonstrate someone’s lack of toughness or strength is to attack them and show they are either unwilling or unable to defend themselves — thus the rough slang I used above. And that I think is a big part of what is happening here. Someone who can’t or won’t defend themselves certainly isn’t someone you can depend upon to defend you.

–snipped Kerry comment–

Hitting someone and not having them hit back hurts the morale of that person’s supporters, buoys the confidence of your own backers (particularly if many tend toward an authoritarian mindset) and tends to make the person who’s receiving the hits into an object of contempt (even if also possibly also one of sympathy) in the eyes of the uncommitted.

This is certainly what Bush’s father did to Michael Dukakis and, sadly, it is what Bush himself did, to a great degree, to Al Gore.

And what Bush did to Kerry, and what Clinton is doing to Obama.

If he can’t answer this against Clinton, Obama cannot win the general.

The Housing Crisis Just Got Bigger

Yes, the GSEs limits on the mortgages that they can buy have just been increased from 417,000 to as high as $793,750, and the FHA limits on insurance have gone from $362,790 to $729,750.

The market has responded by increasing the yield spread between debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and 10 year Treasury bonds to 2.38%, the highest spread in 20 years.

Historically, it’s been in the 1.0 to 1.5% range, and this means higher mortgage rates, even if the GSEs can now carry your jumbo paper.

Smaller Bond Insurers Cleaining Up on Muni Business

With a MBIA and Ambac in death spirals over their involvement in mortgage backed securities and other similar instruments, former bit players like Financial Security Assurance and Assured Guaranty Ltd, which never drank that Koolaid, have seen their market position in the municipal bond insurance market soar.

The consequences I’ve predicted with the ability of municipalities to raise money may be milder than I had anticipated.

Another Argument for Abolishing the Airforce

I really am getting sick and tired of the machinations of the fighter pilot Mafia.

Yes, General Bruce Carleson, who has raised insubordination to an art form, is saying that, “Air Force officials must develop and buy new aircraft or risk the service becoming irrelevant”.

In any likely conflict for the next 20 or so years, we are looking at a few weeks of the “kinetic” phase, followed by months or years of peacekeeping, where it does not matter if you are flying an F-16, F-22, or for that matter, a WWII era piston engined A-1 SPAD.

You are bombing and rocketing insurgents from a position of absolute air supremacy.

The Air Force as a combat service is largely irrelevant. What might be important is airlift, and there was just a 30+ billion award made on that a 2 weeks ago.

To the degree that you might need to exert “dominance” if challenged by a real air threat, the critical issue will be situational awareness and communications, which can be handled through system upgrades.

Chinese Nuclear Arsenal Increased by a Third Since 2006, Pentagon Report Indicates » FAS Strategic Security Blog

Since 2006, the Chinese nuclear arsenal has increased by 1/3.

When one considers the strategic needs of China, they would generally be geared towards protecting supply lanes for oil and other strategic materials, but we see a buildup here that is largely ICBMs and nuclear cruise missiles, which are useless in this scenario:

In fact, the only realistic use for these weapons is to deter the US from using their weapons as a threat to forestall specific Chinese actions **cough** Taiwan **cough**.

Were this simply a modernization, I don’t think that you would see an increase in warheads, because the older liquid fueled missiles would be decommissioned, and they have not been.