Year: 2008

When Giants Stumble

Well, it appears that EBay may have screwed the pooch with its recent changes in fees and feedback policy, and its competitors are doing its level best to exploit the current dissatisfaction.

Competitor sites are seeing their business increase by more than 50%, though when one looks at the numbers (less than 10,000 auctions), they are at this point a drop in the bucket compared to EBay.

One wonders if this will blow over, or if EBay will modify its changes in the coming days.

Fun Economic Indicators

The Big Picture discusses The Ticker Tape Parade Indicator:

  • The NY Giants won their first Super Bowl in 1987; the Great US Stock Market Crash appeared later.
  • The NY Giants won their second Super Bowl in 1991; the last US full-blown recession appeared; money center banks barely avoided the abyss.
  • Before yesterday, the last NYC ticker-tape parade was 2000 (Yankees); the Great US Stock Bubble burst.
  • The NY Giants won their third Super Bowl in 2008 and received a ticker-tape parade; head to the caves! Take it for what you will.

Me, I’m buying canned goods and bottled water.

Democrats Like Their Candidates

I was directed toward this comment from CNN’s Bill Schneider

There’s no doubt Democrats are torn between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. But the early exit polls show they are not bitterly divided: 72 percent of Democrats said they would be satisfied if Clinton won the party’s nomination, while 71 percent say the same about Obama.

What ever happens in the primary, it’s clear that Democrats will be voting, and pulling the D* lever, in November.

H/T to Digby for the catch.

*Yes, I know….lever voting machines are a vanishing breed.

Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, missed the vote.

The Senate stimulus package failed cloture by one vote.

Despite their return from the campaign trail, Democrats fell one vote shy of the 60 votes they needed to bring forward their preferred economic stimulus bill.

Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, missed the vote.

This is something that both Clinton and Obama, and for that matter Harry Reid, should be harping on right now.

The Tornados

If you want to donate to help the victims, I would suggest contacting the Salvation Army, not the Red Cross.

There is a bit of family history involved: My family was in Anchorage for the Good Friday Earthquake (9.5 on the Richter scale), and it was related to me (I was less than 2) that the Salvation Army did much better than the Red Cross, which was bureaucratic, and charged for things that the Salvation Army did for free.

Generally, I favor the secular solution, but considering the Red Cross’s direct role in killing most of the hemophiliacs in the US by fighting testing blood for AIDS, and their top heavy management, they are not on my giving list.

Well On Our Way to the Police State

What is a police state?

I would argue that it is a country in which all rights are sublimated to increasing the capabilities of the state security apparatus to conduct any business that it desires without impediment.

No bothersome warrants, no consideration of the rights of the accused, torture, no privacy, etc.

Cases in point:

  • FBI intends to assemble a massive database of physical characteristics of people, including retinal and iris scans, palm prints, and tattoos.
    • Of course my initial response to the idea of a database of tattoos was, “Why bother. Just tattoo numbers on people’s wrists. It worked so well the last time out.”
  • And then we have some crypto-fascist at DHS who wants to require Real ID cards to track people’s cold medication purchases. I understand that pseudoephedrin can make meth, but this is insane.
  • Of course, in a police state, you have to have massive prisons stuffed to the gills with people, so AG Mukasey wants congress to act because people who got disproportionate sentences under the racist crack laws might will get out earlier under the new sentencing guidelines.
    • Dude, that was the whole idea of changing the guidelines. The disproportionate sentencing was deliberately racist, and demonstrably so, and this is why they want it changed. Rockefeller style drug laws have proved a failure. All it’s left the US with is the greatest proportioned of imprisoned in the world.
  • Finally, we are requiring permission for USA citizens to return to the US.

    Under new regulations and procedures announced to take effect over the next month, citizens of the USA will, for the first time, be required to obtain USA government permission in order to return home to their own country from abroad — from anywhere else in the world, by air or sea or land.

    On no other aspect of the right to travel is international law more clear than on the right of return to the country of one’s own citizenship: “No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of the right to enter his own country.” The new regulations are a flagrant violation of the obligations of the USA as a party to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and other international human rights treaties, as well as a violation of the Constitutional duty of the USA government to treat such treaties as the highest law of the land.

I want my country back.

Bush Authorized Torture, and the AG Signed off On It

Well, we now know that the CIA tortured at least three suspects with waterboarding.

I looked around at some other articles, and found this on CNN:

Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell, who also testified at the hearing, said waterboarding remains a technique in the CIA’s arsenal, according to The Associated Press. He said it would require the president’s consent and legal approval from the attorney general, the AP reported.

I think that he just pretty much admitted that George W. Bush personally authorized torture, and that the AG signed off on it.

The Hague, bitches.

F-136 Alternate JSF Engine Killed in Pentagon Budget

I fully expect it to come back. This happens every year. The Pentagon kills it, and Congress puts it back.

I support the F-136 for two reasons:

  1. I believe that having two ending suppliers for the JSF will make for better cheaper engines in the long run.
  2. There will be weight growth, and the F-135 appears to be marginal in that case for the STOVL version.

Of course, it’s not put back on the budget for those reasons. It’s put back because GE is big in a lot of Congressional Districts.

Super Tuesday Returns

I am not going to be awake when California comes in, and I think that it will be California that defines victory on both sides of the ticket.

That being said, here are returns before I set up my computer to burn Avatar disks and go to bed, courtesy of Talking Points Memo:

CLINTON: AR, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TN
OBAMA: AL, CT, DE, GA, KS, IL, MN, ND, UT
HUCKABEE: AR, AL, GA, WV
MCCAIN: AZ, CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY, OK
ROMNEY: MA, UT

Illiquid

Illiquid sounds like a mile word.

It sounds like maybe the markets are thirsty.

It’s actually MUCH worse than that.

It means that a buyer cannot be found for your asset, so for the time being at least, it is worthless.

It’s like being marooned on a desert island with a pirate chest full of gold doubloons. Technically, you are rich, but you still have no shelter, food or water, and you die all the same.

The Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO)market is very nearly illiquid, according to Ross Heller of JPMorgan Securities, who is saying, “We’re definitely in a period of very low liquidity at the moment, which has actually been dropping precipitously in the last few weeks.”

Desert Island time.

I’m beginning to wonder if a Honda full of silver is over optimistic, and that instead we should fill it with canned goods and ammunition.