Year: 2008

My Prediction on New Hampshire

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Well, really I have only one, that Huckabee will do a lot better than the polling trend of 12% or so.

If you look at things like this report of large crowds for him, and the statements of the Republican establishment and the Washington punditocracy* to the effect that Huckabee supporters are mouth breathing morons, which would tend to have people not telling pollsters that they lean his way.

Additionally, independent voters are more likely to vote in the Democratic primary, simply because they believe that the next president will be a Democrat, which leaves a higher proportion of hard core conservatives voting.

I’m calling for 17+% for Huckabee. (A clarification, I’m not calling a win, just that he breaks 17%)

*Which might be better described as a Kakistocracy.

Tenet and Other CIA Officials Lawyer Up

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It’s been known for some time that Jose Rodriguez has retained Bob Bennet, and now George Tenet has retained Howard Shapiro, a former FBI general coundil.

Additionally, Roy Krieger, who has represented a large number of CIA employees is getting inquiries.

These folks are experiencing the prisoner’s dilemma, and assumign that this investigation runs past January 21 of next year, the one who rolls to the prosecutor first wins.

It’s clear that these tapes were destroyed to prevent an investigation.

Joe Trippi Claims That Hillary Campaign Is Broke

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Honestly, I don’t see this claim as anything but self-aggrandizement from Trippi.

He thinks that because he blew through $40 million dollars with Dean in 2004, that Hillary must have blown through $100 million or so in 2008.

I place no credence in this, for a number of reasons:

  • It’s Joe bloody Trippi, who has little credibility.
  • You are not getting reports of frantic fund raising emails, and in this day of the internet, if there were a cash flow crisis, emails would be flying fast and furious.
  • This serves his interest as an Edwards campaign advisor.

Adventures in Ebay

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I wanted to upgrade my system, but because it’s a Dell with ECC RAM, it’s hard to find the memory, and it costs a lot, so I checked out eBay.

I made the order on December 29, it arrived FedEX ground yesterday, and it works. No muss, no fuss.

It was between $400 and $500 for a gig of RAM from Dell, it was $29.95+ 9.95 s&h for the 1 gig from computersgeeks. Used but a the Dell OEM part

I recommend the seller, but once again, everything Dell does seems to be non standard and a pain to replace.

Christopher Hayes’ Proposals for Good Campaign Coverage

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His proposals are pretty common sense, but they would improve coverage a lot:

Then there’s the additional problem that the longer a reporter spends with a campaign, the more likely they’ll develop either a kind of contempt for the candidate and the campaign or a strange version of stockholm syndrome. Clearly this was the case during 2000 and 2004 when the dislike for both Gore and Kerry was palpable. This might be natural and human, but it breeds awful journalism.

Finally, we have the perenial complaint that the coverage focuses on the horse-race and the theater of the campaign and not on the issues. But I don’t really think that’s the fault of reporters. First, they have to file constantly on short deadlines. So even if Obama releases a tax plan one day, and you write a piece about that, that’s still only a one-day story. What do you write about the next day? Why, Obama sniping with Hillary or somesuch. Second of all, consider the imbalance in expertise between a campaign and those who cover it. When Obama releases a tax plan, it’s a product of a team of policy experts, who know the terrain inside and out. But the reporter who has to file the deadline piece about it doesn’t have any expertise on tax policy. So how could their coverage be anything but shallow?

His proposals:

  • Rotate Reports. After covering a candidate for a few weeks, they have heard the stump speech dozens of times, and wouldn’t know a new policy initiative if it bit them on the ass.
  • More long form non-deadline pieces. (If someone has been with a candidate for months, they can provide deeper insights).
  • Assign campaign coverage to beat reports. Hays gives the example of the New York Times‘ Jeff Zeleny covering an Obama tax proposal. The problem was that Zeleny does not do taxes, and most reporters are innumerate. However, the Times does have reporters who can do taxes and count, like David Cay Johnston, who has won a Pulitzer in this area.

The only thing that I would add is that, particularly for papers like the LA Times, WaPo, and Times, who can pick and choose their talent, don’t hire innumerate reporters.

I don’t care if you are covering politics, or architecture, or fashion, if you cannot read a balance sheet, you have no business being a reporter.

We are not talking differential equations, or even calculus, we are talking Algebra that should have been mastered in high school.

OK, Gravel is My Guy, at Least Until He Joneses My Buzz

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So now, Mike Gravel is telling teens that pot is better than alcohol.

He also said that by decriminalizing dope, you would end up with fewer criminals, and less exposure to the criminal element.

Of course, this is that wacky Gravel being wacky again…except that he’s telling the truth.

Marijuana is not physically addictive, it cannot kill you with an overdose, and the effects on the system long term are milder.

Of course, the problem is that legalization would cut into both the profits of the Pot business, and the budget of the DEA, so “various serious people” don’t support legalization.

UK Per Capita GDP Exceeds the US

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Interestingly enough, the Times of London screws up the hed, titling it UK Living Standards Outstrip US, which is inaccurate.

In terms of standard of living, when you look at things like health care costs, university costs, decent transit alternatives to autos, and a social safety net, western Europe has been ahead of the US for well over a decade.

A number of people have blown this off as an “artifact” of currency changes, but the fact of the matter is that the $US has been artificially high since at least the end of WWII, because of the US dollar’s preeminent position as the world’s reserve currency.

Quote of the Day: David Brooks

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Overheard in New Hampshire: David Brooks on Bill Kristol

After last night’s debate, New York Times columnist David Brooks was chatting with a group of people. One of them said: “I hear you hired that conservative Bill Kristol.” David Brooks responded: “More like a pseudoconservative.”

I’m not sure where this comes from, but my guess is that Brooks thinks that Bill Kristol is the beneficiary of conservative affirmative action (nepotism).

The GOP’s Primaries as High School Musical

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Michael Scherer of Time Magazind, has Tan analysis of the GOP debates that actually is a good analysis of the election:

  • John Mccain: The coolest kid in school.
  • Mitt Romney: The class do-gooder and overachiever.
  • Mike Huckabee: The class clown whose heart always seems in the right place.

I’m not sure if I’m impressed at this guy’s perception, or terrified that the Republican nominee fits into the memes of hich school cliques.

Warner Brothers Drops HD-DVD

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Well, I made predictions on the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray wars (see here, here, here, here, and here).

Generally, I’ve either bet against Sony, which is generally a safe bet, or against both, the theory that online distribution will render both formats redundant.

Given my previous record, perhaps you want to buy stock in Sony, because Warner Brothers just dropped HD-DVD as a format. They had been using both.

I stand by my predictions, but my record sucks.

Hack0rz to Penetrate 787 Systems in flight

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Well, it appears that one of Boeing’s innovations with the 787 is the ability to wirelessly access maintenance and control systems, and the FAA is demanding that there be more security on these systems.

The entire world of aviation is increasingly looking like the Pilot episode of
The Lone Gunman an X-Files spin off, in which the forces of fascism attempt to take over the computer systems of an airliner and fly it into the Twin Towers.

Heck, the entire world is beginning to seem like an episode of The Lone Gunman.

God is My Guide, With Exact GPS Coordinates

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Well, it appears that someone in Florida has devised a strategy to thwart baby Jesus stealers everywhere, they implanted a GPS tracker.

I expect this to be the beginning of a trend among Nativity scenes in the future.

The woman who oversees the annual display decided to put Global Positioning System trackers on the Jesus, Mary and Joseph figurines.

“I don’t anticipate this will ever happen again,” Dina Cellini said, “but we may need to rely on technology to save our savior.”

First, we lose ice pick murders, and now this.

It appears that technology has gone too far.

Bush and His Evil Minions™: Poor Children Should Die

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Fresh off of denying health care to the children of the working poor, Bush is now doing his level best to make sure that even poorer children die.

They have set impossible criteria, because they believe that people are poor because they are evil, and because they believe that the government helping poor people compounds that evil.

It’s the worst characteristics of 1500s Calvanism with a Texas twang.

Of course it also helps out the health insurance companies, who are big Republican donors. So you get more dead kids and more dirty insurance money, which is a win-win for Republicans.

Mukasey Appoints Patrick Fitzgerald to the Attorney General’s Advisory Committee of U.S. Attorneys

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Honestly, I have no clue as to what this appointment means.

Based on Mukasey’s statements on waterboarding, I was convinced that he was Bush and His Evil Minions&trade bitch, but this would seem to indicate otherwise.

What is the role of this committee? Does this mean anything, or is it just a title and a pat on the head?

He was on the committee before, but was not reappointed by Abu Gonzalez after he started investigating the Plame leak.

The pourpose of the committee appears to be, counseling “the attorney general on law enforcement issues.”