Year: 2008

Economics Update

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Well, it looks like the deflationary trap may be here, with the CPI down 1% last month, and core CPI falling 0.1%, the first drop since 1982.

The fact that housing starts and requests for building permits are falling off reinforces the idea that we are heading towards a major downturn.

Of course, it’s not just residential real estate. We are now seeing that mortgage backed securities for commercial properties are seeing increasing insurance costs and delinquencies.

In the larger world of the credit crunch, Calculated Risk’s Credit Crisis Indicators are largely unchanged.

BTW, S&P has downgraded monoliner bond insurer Ambac again.

In energy, oil fell again, on high inventory reports.

In currency, the dollar fell in response to continued news of a recession.

Let’s see…Anything else??? Oh…Yeah, the Dow closed below 8,000 for the first time in 5 years, 7,997.28.

Circular Firing Squat*

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Gee, following a crushing electoral defeat, conservative windbag Kathleen Parker goes and blames it all on the what she sees as right wing medieval religious types:

As Republicans sort out the reasons for their defeat, they likely will overlook or dismiss the gorilla in the pulpit.

….

To be more specific, the evangelical, right-wing, oogedy-boogedy branch of the GOP is what ails the erstwhile conservative party and will continue to afflict and marginalize its constituents if reckoning doesn’t soon cometh.

Simply put: Armband religion is killing the Republican Party. And, the truth — as long as we’re setting ourselves free — is that if one were to eavesdrop on private conversations among the party intelligentsia, one would hear precisely that.

….

So it has been for the Grand Old Party since the 1980s or so, as it has become increasingly beholden to an element that used to be relegated to wooden crates on street corners.

Ouch!!! Reading further it appears that her problem with the Religious right is that it is insular, nativist, and so is hostile and frightening to the majority of the population who are not a part of this. Well put

However, honesty forces me to note that her argument would be far more convincing if she hadn’t endorsed the idea of fear and hatred of those who don’t look like us using a right wing evangelical just this May:

“A full-blooded American.”

That’s how 24-year-old Josh Fry of West Virginia described his preference for John McCain over Barack Obama. His feelings aren’t racist, he explained. He would just be more comfortable with “someone who is a full-blooded American as president.”

…

Full-bloodedness is an old coin that’s gaining currency in the new American realm. Meaning: Politics may no longer be so much about race and gender as about heritage, core values, and made-in-America. Just as we once and still have a cultural divide in this country, we now have a patriot divide.

Maybe she’s just pro bigotry, and since it’s no longer acceptable, at least not in the Washington Post OP/Ed pages to call the President-Elect a n*gg*r (yet), she just needed someone else to hate.

It’s circular firing squad time, and unlike in 1964, there are no moderates left to target….

I’m going to get some popcorn.

*It was a typo, then I realized that I was funnier by accident than I was on purpose.

News Flash: When You Torture Someone for a Few Years, They Frequently Go Nuts

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A judge has determined that Aafia Siddiqui is mentally unfit for trial.

Not surprising, considering that she was apprehended by the Pakistani ISI, and, along with three children were handed over to American authorities about 5 years ago, and held with recourse to…anything. (JFGI)

I have no knowledge of what was done to her, but it is unquestionably clear that she was held by Pakistani and/or US authorities over that period, and I’m sure that it was not a tea party.

Sometimes, Good Legislation Comes Back Too

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In this case, a change to bankruptcy laws that would allow judges to modify mortgages on primary residences.

Right now it can be done on a vacation home, recreational boat, etc., but not on a primary residence, but Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) is bringing back a change in bankruptcy law to change this.

According to reports, this will be a priority of Obama, but we are hearing that about a lot of things right now.

This is a very good law for a number of reasons:

  • Modifying mortgages is cheaper than foreclosure.
  • With mortgages sliced and diced 6 ways from Sunday, it is currently impossible to get consent from the holders of the mortgages to renegotiate the loans.
  • It punishes the players who created the bubble.
  • The cost to people taking out mortgages is minuscule, on the order of 25-75 basis points (¼-¾%), which should not make a significant difference in home affordability.
  • It makes the use of arcane financial instruments on home mortgages less certain, and hence less likely.

True Evil

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To demand full obedience, no thought, no doubts, no conscience, just obedience.

And only 72.9 miles driving distance from me:

Rob Foster was 16 when his family unraveled.

He had told his parents that he wanted to leave Calvary Temple, the Pentecostal church in Sterling the family had attended for decades. But church leaders were blunt with his parents: Throw your son out of the house, or you will be excommunicated. And so that December two years ago, Gary and Marsha Foster told Rob that he had to leave. They would not see him or talk to him.

It’s repulsive, and if subjected churches to the same level of fiscal accountability as other non-profits, it’s clear that he would be in jail for that

Paul Krugman pwn$* George Will

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It’s nice that Krugman was there when George Will started spewing the standard talking point of the Republicans about the Great Depression, that Roosevelt made it worse because investors went on strike.

The reality is, that the economy clawed its way back because of the New Deal, and when Roosevelt eased up on the fiscal gas in 1937, everything went down again.

In 30 seconds, he showed Will that he did not know what he was talking about.

What worries me is that most days, Krugman would not have been there.

*Owns

I Can’t Wait for Bush and His Evil Minions&trade to Go

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And I really hope that Obama uses the screw up on the time frame for the rules that Bush is issuing to reverse them.

Latest case in point:

The proposed rule would prohibit recipients of federal money from discriminating against doctors, nurses and other health care workers who refuse to perform or to assist in the performance of abortions or sterilization procedures because of their “religious beliefs or moral convictions.”

It should be interesting.

If he doesn’t reverse this one in the first week he’s sworn in……

Report: Hillary Clinton to Accept Offer of Secretary of State Position

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At least that is the word from The Grauniad.*

We’ll see, but I’m still dubious.

*According to the Wiki, The Guardian, formerly the Manchester Guardian in the UK. It’s nicknamed the Grauniad because of its penchant for typographical errors, “The nickname The Grauniad for the paper originated with the satirical magazine Private Eye. It came about because of its reputation for frequent and sometimes unintentionally amusing typographical errors, hence the popular myth that the paper once misspelled its own name on the page one masthead as The Gaurdian, though many recall the more inventive The Grauniad.”

Iceland: Payback’s a Bitch

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Well, in response to being declared a terrorist nation by they UK, and by the IMF attempting to impose draconian conditions on it, Iceland’s President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson has invited Russia to use the old US Air Force base at Keflavik.

The US closed the base in 2006, so certainly the space is available, and the Russians could pay in cash, though the Russian ambassador was as flummoxed as the rest of the people at the diplomatic luncheon.

As to where this will end up, I tend to think that between the gentle ministrations of Gordon Brown and the International Monetary Fund, there is a pretty good chance that the Russians will end up with both Keflavik and a naval basing agreement.

Did Howard Dean Just Deliver a Steaming Helping of F%$# You to Barack Obama?

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Howard Dean gave an interview on the Senate’s cave to Lieberman, and said that the action was, “in the spirit of unification, which is what the President-elect wanted” and that, “He called the shots, and that’s fine.”

There are doubtless a more than a few people with steam pouring out of their ears right now, and it sounds like the good doctor just painted a target on Obama’s back.

IMHO, Obama deserves to catch grief over this. It’s clear that he figured that he wanted Lieberman in the tent pissing out, but he’s been in the tent, pissing in, for the past 4 years.

Un-Dirtyword-Believable

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It looks like the Dutch insurance company Aegon is looking to buy a small US thrift so that they can score some TARP Money from Hank Paulson and His Evil Minions&trade.

They really don’t need it, but since it is being given away for free, they consider the purchase of a thrift, most likely Suburban Federal Savings Bank headquartered in Maryland.

Companies are doing backflips to get into this program, which is a good indicator that it is too generous.

Paulson is doing the US taxpayer like a 2 dollar whore.

Economics Update

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Well, I’ll be referencing some mora alarming economic data in another post, but let’s have at the routine stuff, shall we?

First, the U.S. Producer Prices Index fell by 2.8%, the most on record. Note: this is not a, “low inflation, hurray,” thing. This is a, “prices are falling off a cliff like they were in 1932,” thing.

Part of this, of course is falling oil prices, so it’s no surprise that oil hit 21-month low today.

Not unsurprisingly, we also see the home builders’ sentiment index falling to a 9 month low.

Honestly, if I were surveying home builder sentiment, my worry would be them tossing themselves out of windows.

Out of force of habit, because the fundamentals of the U.S. economy do not merit it any more, people continue to flee to the dollar in times of uncertainty, so the dollar strengthened today.

Oh, and if you follow stock prices, Fannie Mae is facing delisting from the New York Stock Exchange.

Election Updates

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The Minnesota state Canvassing Board formally certified the vote count, meaning that the state mandated recount of the Al Franken-Norm Coleman race can now proceed.

The margin is 215 in favor or Coleman out of about 2.9 million votes cast, but typically, on a recount you find more votes missed in more heavily trafficked precincts, which are typically urban, and typically swing Democratic.

I’m waiting for the Supreme Court to shut it down using Bush v. Gore as a precedent.