Year: 2008

Update on Syrian Nuclear Reactor

Well, it now appears that the IAEA found traces of enriched Uranium at the alleged Syrian nuclear reactor site.

It appears that I was wrong, I figured that it was beyond their level of nuclear infrastructure to even try.

On a related note, officials at the IAEA are seriously pissed off at whoever leaked the above data, because they see it as, “an effort to prejudge the agency’s conclusions.”

Basically, it appears that the source of the contamination is not clear:

The particles retrieved from some environmental swipe samples were of processed uranium — which could include the enriched version that in large quantities would fuel power plants or bombs, not of raw uranium ore, they said.

Such traces, they said, could have been carried to the site inadvertently on scientists or workers or on equipment trucked in. Syria has one declared atomic site, a research reactor.

A remote source could resemble a finding made in a long IAEA investigation of Iran’s secretive nuclear program.

Bomb-grade uranium particles found by IAEA sleuths there were assessed to have come with used equipment obtained from Pakistan, not from any undeclared domestic production facility.

Economics Update

Well, it’s a bank holiday, so it’s a little bit slow, but the fact that American Express is filing to become a bank holding company, so that it can take part in the Federal Reserve’s sh&%pile for cash program.

My guess would be that they are seeing their default rate going up, and that they can’t find anyone to buy the debt.

In retail, General Growth Properties, the 2nd largest mall operator in the US, said that it may file for bankruptcy protection, and National Wholesale Liquidators filed for bankruptcy.

In other impending bankruptcies, option ARM lender Downey Savings and Loan just said in it’s 10Q that it cannot see a way to avoid being taken over by the Office of Thrift Supervision.

Most of the interest rate indicators were unavailable today because of the holiday, but the LIBOR (the L stands for London) was down a bit again today.

Also from that little island off the coast of France, retail and home sales are heading south quickly there too.

The joys of Anglo-Saxon capitalism, I guess.

In any case, there is no joy in Mudville, if by Mudville you mean the real estate market, so Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have instituted a new program to modify mortgages to minimize foreclosures.

I still think that bankruptcy changes are the best solution here.

In any case, the impending recession drove oil to a 19 month low, and drove the dollar up, as people tend to flee to the dollar in bad times.

Falling oil is also absolutely killing the Ruble, which appears to be on the brink a devaluation.

The, “He’ll Take Our 401(k)” Myth

You’ve probably seen the email….Somehow, I mercifully missed screaming that “Bqrack Obama will take your 401(k)/403(b) to finance something….Not quite sure what….Maybe an arms for hostages swap, but that seems to be Republican foreign policy.

Not surprisingly, this is complete crap. Generally the finger is pointed at Education and Labor Committee Chairman George Miller (D-CA) for this scheme, and there are two very small grains of truth.

The first is that Miller he wants to regulate, not take 401(k)s, specifically, he’s talking about reigning in fees, which will mean, of course, lower fees, but also mean less aggressively managed portfolios, because aggressively managed portfolios are more expensive, since aggressively managing anything takes resources.

In the long run, since stuff like S&P 500 funds beat actively managed funds, particularly when fees are taken into account, this would be a good thing, as people who lose their retirement in Emu farms generally run screaming for a taxpayer bailout.

The second grain of truth is that Teresa Ghilarducci has this pet program that she touted as a witness at the hearing: that 401(k) holders be allowed to voluntarily trade in their 401(k)s for a so called, “Guaranteed Retirement Account”. She also suggests that in the long term the pre-tax income features of 401(k)s be abolished and be replaced with a retirement plan with guaranteed payout (which sounds an awful like what social security already is).

It’s guaranteed benefits, as opposed to guaranteed asset, a return to the pensions of old.

I’m not sure of her concept, though on the face of it, it seems to be a better one than the Chilean model, where broker fees, and the market depressing effects of large population echelons end up leaving people with far less than they anticipated.

Of course the real conundrum of defined asset retirement plans is the equation that if you die young, you win.

Erdogan’s Is Right

It appears that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is at loggerheads with his business community over whether to go to the IMF for aid.

Erdogan does not want to deal with the IMF, and the moneyed elites do:

“We will not cast our tomorrows into darkness by bowing to IMF demands in such a time of crisis,” Erdogan said on Oct. 26, accusing the IMF of seeking to “squeeze Turkey’s throat” by curbing needed spending programs.

That is a pretty good definition of what the IMF does, at least what it does to non-white countries. You can be sure that the strictures on recents IMF loans to Ukraine, Hungary and Iceland would be far less punitive than anything that Turkey would get, even though, by all standards, Turkey has cleaned up its act over the past few years, culminating in paying off the IMF in 2005.

What is going on here is what Naomi Kline outlines in The Shock Doctrine. Times are bad, so Turkey must return to economic policies that are in reality colonialism with a polite veneer.

One need only look at Malaysia in the Asian financial crisis, which did better because it refused IMF money and directives:

Malaysia stood out as a country that refused IMF assistance and advice. Instead of further opening its economy, Malaysia imposed capital controls, in an effort to eliminate speculative trading in its currency. While the IMF mocked this approach when adopted, the Fund later admitted that it succeeded. Malaysia generally suffered less severe economic problems than the other countries embroiled in the Asian financial crisis.

The long term solution is to tax or otherwise restrict foreign denominated loans because they always result in a crisis in which foreign powers dictate the shape of a local society.

They are Irrelevant

Timothy Burke makes a very good point:

It’s schadenfreudey fun to read the ongoing psychotic meltdowns at various far-right sites like the Corner, I agree. But there’s little need to take the really bad-faith conservatives seriously now. For the last eight years, we’ve had to take them somewhat seriously because they had access to political power. You had to listen to the hack complaints about academia from endlessly manipulative writers because it was perfectly plausible that whatever axe they were grinding was going to end up as a priority agenda item coming out of Margaret Spelling’s office or get incorporated into legislation by right-wing state legislators. You had to listen to and reply to even the most laughably incoherent, goalpost-moving, anti-reality-based neoconservative writer talking about Iraq or terrorism because there was an even-money chance that you were hearing actual sentiments going back and forth between Dick Cheney’s office and the Pentagon. You had to answer back to Jonah Goldberg not just because making that answer was arguably our responsibility as academics, but also because left alone, some of the aggressively bad-faith caricatures he and others served up had a reasonable chance to gain even further strength through incorporation into federal policy.

(emphasis original)

I would disagree on two points:

  • Schadenfreudey is an offence to the English and German language. I believe, based on my limited German, and some Google, it should be Schadenfreudes.
  • The are no seriously good faith conservatives out there. This is simply misplaced optimism. Modern conservatism is, as John Kenneth Galbraith said, “The search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.

Quite honestly, movement conservatism, which I admit is not all of conservatism, has always been so. When looks at William F. Buckley and his spawn, it is all about preserving hereditary privilege, and the feeling of superiority that comes from justifying the unjustifiable.

That’s why you see so much in the way of Racist screeds in the 1950s and 1960s in the National Review, many from Buckley’s own poison pen.

There are also the haters, Delay and Musgrove come to mind, who are simply motivated by hate, and find conservationism the easiest way to find an outlet for their hate.

There are, of course, the inevitable hangers on: people who find personal affirmation on being part of “the movement”, particularly when it is in the ascendancy, but this is largely a social, and not an ideological phenomenon but a social one.

At its core, movement conservatism in the United States believes that nothing can be done to improve anything, and thus, there is no more point in dialog with them than there would be with a turnip.

As to “non-movement” conservatives….I’ve never met any, except for senior Catholic clergy, Bishops and higher, who appear to pine for the days of feudalism, and al Qaeda, who pine for the days of feudalism, but feudalism a few miles further east.

Deaths in Russian Sub Accident

It appears that a fire suppression system activated, and people suffocated before they could don emergency breathing gear.

This may come down to training, as the people on board may not have know how and when to use breathing gear.

Technical error in article: Freon (more likely a similar CFC like halon) is described as a toxic gas. It isn’t, but in high enough concentrations, it can suffocate you, much like a pure Nitrogen atmosphere did at a NASA installation a few years back.

Barack Obama Can Kiss My Shiny Metal Ass

Only a week after the election and Barack Obama is doing something very stupid, if the reports that Obama told Reid that he wants Lieberman to remain in the Democratic caucus are accurate.

Joe Lieberman has always been a hypocrite and sanctimonious, but now he is on Jihad against the Democratic party for defeating him in the primary in 2006.

I understand the desire to keep him in the caucus, but if he is allowed to keep his chairmanship of the Homeland Security committee, he will use his powers to inflict damage on the Democratic Party generally, and Barack Obama in particular.

President elect Obama, I would suggest that you buy a clue with some of your left over campaign cash.