Year: 2008

African National Congress Party Appears to Be Fracturing

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The splinter group is is calling itself the South African Democratic Congress, and the ANC has sued, claiming that the name is too confusing.

The fracturing of the ANC may be a very good thing. Parties are always opaque to outsiders, and having a meaningful multiparty system tends to bring openness.

I still wonder how much of this is about Jacob Zuma, and how much is an issue of class distinctions between the Oxbridge educated people who have traditionally held leadership roles, and their less cosmopolitan associates.

If You Can’t Make It There, YOu Can’t Make it Anywhere

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Because New York City commercial property sales are collapsing, and those sales that are made are being done by
companies leaving Manhattan for Brooklyn in order to save costs.

And while we are at it, we have a hollow condo in Brooklyn, One Brooklyn Bridge Park, which is still 2/3 empty.

If you cannot make money in real estate in New York, you cannot make money in real estate anywhere.

Spencer Ackerman Misses the Big Picture

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quotes the following from the Heritage Foundation:

October 30, 2008
The New Cold War: Reviving the U.S. Presence in the Arctic
by Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Lajos F. Szaszdi, Ph.D., and Jim Dolbow
Backgrounder #2202

The Arctic is quickly reemerging as a strategic area where vital U.S. interests are at stake. The geo­political and geo-economic importance of the Arctic region is rising rapidly, and its mineral wealth will likely transform the region into a booming eco­nomic frontier in the 21st century. The coasts and continental shelf of the Arctic Ocean are estimated to hold large deposits of oil, natural gas, and meth­ane hydrate (natural gas) clusters along with large quantities of valuable minerals.

He seems to think that, “important corners of the Republican Party remain frothing, bloodshot-eyeball insane.”

He’s wrong. These folks are completely sane. The Republican party, of which the Heritage foundation is an integral part, needs to have a big scary enemy to further their partisan electoral goals.

Additionally, it furthers their policy goals, because the money going into the military makes it difficult to find resources for social programs.

This is not insanity, this is a complete lack of conscience. War is just a way to win elections.

F.C.C. Approves Unlicensed Use of White Space

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Basically unused over the air TV channels, and the technology has been shown to be feasible, so the F.C.C. voted unanimously to approve the change.

Basically, it means that anyone who makes a device that works properly, basically senses and avoids around the spectrum, can use it.

Things like device certification and the specific regulations still have to be devised though.

This is good news, as the old TV channels give significant advances relative to WiFi in range, penetration, and bandwith.

The broadcasters oppose this, because, quoting a friend in the biz:

1) NIMBY.

2) Bad precedent for broadcasters. They have made everybody believe they OWN this spectrum. Now they don’t.

3) [David] Rehr, who assumed control of the NAB in 2005 after Eddie Fritz retired, has not managed to get a single major policy win. After losing badly on XM-Sirius, he desperately needs a win to avoid getting the boot.

The wireless microphone industry opposes this too, but for a different reason, they already use the spectrum illegally and don’t want a change.

I’ve worked on installations of mission critical military equipment, though, in deference to the some comments that I got, it was not hand held, it was vehicle mounted.

Gives Me Shivers

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A snipped from an interview eith Seymour Hersh:

…for Hersh this will be a starting gun. ‘You cannot believe how many people have told me to call them on 20 January [the date of the next president’s inauguration],’ he says, with relish. ‘[They say:] ‘You wanna know about abuses and violations? Call me then.’ So that is what I’ll do, so long as nothing awful happens before the inauguration.’

(emphasis mine)

I am trembling like a school girl.

Economics Update

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Calculated Risk: Fannie Mortgage Bond Spreads Decline

Well, we have payroll services firm ADP saying that job cuts in October totaled 157,000, above the 100,000 predicted, with September numbers up too, and Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the grim reapers of the corporate world reporting that more firms are planning to cut jobs.

Meanwhile the ISM’s non-manufacturing index, an index of the service economy, fell to 44.4 the worst number recorded since the index was created in 1997.

It’s not just the US either. U.K. factory output is dropping like a stone.

In the credit crunch, while gross interest are improving, the spreads between these interest rates and treasury notes remain high.

For example, the LIBOR rate has fallen to 2.51% from 4.82% on 10/10, but the spread remains 151 basis points (1.51%) over the Fed’s target rate

Prior to the credit crunch it averaged 22 basis points.

This may be mortgage applications are down, banks are still skittish, and costs are higher.

This is a normal response by banks when you consider that you have things like the bath that Glitnir swap sellers took. They look to being left with 3¢ on the dollar.

The swaps in question are a sort of bond insurance, so it’s no surprise that the two largest, monoliners Ambac and MBIA just posted big losses.

It appears that there are expectations of more rate cuts, as the dollar is down, though paradoxically, so is crude oil….Normally, they tend to move in opposite directions.

A Critique of the No on Prop 8 Effort

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Quoting John Aravosis:

I’d like someone to explain to me why the leaders of our side of the campaign shouldn’t be metaphorically beaten to within an inch of their lives. We should have hired political professionals, even – eeks! – straight ones, to do this. But we relied on the usual gay names and faces because, cumbaya my lord, a PC group hug is far more important than actually winning. I’m disgusted. And I want to see some heads rolling.

I would note that this problem is not unique to the Gay community…In fact it appears to be endemic to the Democratic party. (Brazile, Shrum, Penn, etc.)

Quote of the Day: Alan Greenspan’s Woman

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Dean Baker on Andrea Mitchell on Obama cabinet appointments:

I usually don’t watch much television news. When I do, I realize why. I saw Andrea Mitchell tonight talking about who President Obama will turn to for help in dealing with the financial crisis. The first two names were at the top of the list of people who gave us the financial crisis: Robert Rubin and Larry Summers. This would be a bit like turning to Osama Bin Laden for aid in the war on terrorism.

(emphasis mine)

On a deeper note, Andrea Mitchell is about as close to ground zero on conventional wisdom as one could get, and so the general level of clueless of the Beltway Boyz™ is just a complete mind f^%$.

While I Slept

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Minnesota: Coleman-Franken still too close to call, and Bachmann wins.

Alaska: It looks like both current felon, Stevens, and felon to be, Young, are going to be reelected. What is wrong with that state?

Washington State: Reichert-Burner still close to call.

California: It looks like the hate amendment wins, though they are still calling it close.

Going to Sleep Now

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Some updates on races of interest:

Franken-Coleman: Too close to call, but the exit polls show a slight lead for Franken.

Bachmann-Tinklenberg: It looks like the evil crazy lady will win…Damn.

The hate ammendment in California (Proposition 8) Leading, with 54%, but it’s early and SF and Santa Cruz county have not yet come in….It will be a nail biter.

Darcey Burner-Dave Richert: Looks, OK, she has a double digit lead, but only about 11% votes have been counted, and I do not know the geographic breakdown.