Year: 2008

The Syrian ClusterF&%$

No Comments

Well, it now looks like there was Syrian foreknowledge and support of the raid, only they were told that it would be a snatch and grab, and it turned into a John Wayne shootout:

In the time-honoured tradition of covert US operations in the Middle East, this one seems to have gone spectacularly wrong. The Syrians, who had agreed to turn a blind eye to a supposedly quiet “snatch and grab” raid, could not keep the lid on a firefight in which so many people had died.

So it appears that they Syrians were expecting a quiet op, and they got a bunch of citizens killed in the process.

I’m sure that this will make them much more likely to support such an operation in the future.

Not Enough Bullets: Scotland Edition

No Comments

Specifically, the Royal Bank of Scotland, which just received a £20 billion bailout from the British government, but still intends to pay bonuses to the people who screwed up the bank in the first place:

The bank has set aside £1.79bn to cover “staff costs” – including discretionary bonuses – at its investment banking division for the first six months of the year alone. The same division caused a £5.9bn writedown that wiped out the bank’s profits for the same period.

The last ‘graph in the article says it all:

Banking sources privately acknowledge that the sight of these bonus accruals may provoke anger. They concede the industry’s pay and bonus regime is under unprecedented strain as it fails to reflect profitability, asset writedowns or share price declines.

The idea that you give people bonuses who lose you money is not, “Unprecedented Strain”, it is insanity.

Dassault Looks at Rafale as Satellite Launcher

No Comments

This is actually fairly well trodden ground, with an F-15 launching an anti-satellite weapon in the 1980s, and concepts using a MiG-31 to launch microsats in the past few years.

What looks like fuel tanks under the wings are actually solid rocket boosters, which is a bit of a change from earlier configurations.

While the F-15 did successfully intercept a satellite (that was still putting out good scientific data…oops), nothing has come of this otherwise.

VASIMR Plasma Drive Hits Rated Power in Bench Test

No Comments

I’ve mentioned the technology before, and now it appears that the VASIMR plasma drive has hit a major milestone in the lab. The first stage (helicon) of the system has hit its rated 30 KW power.

Thrust levels are relatively low, though they are high compared to something like Ion, around 10N in low ISP mode, and in the 100mN range in high ISP mode.

The developer of this technology, Ad Astra Rocket Company, hopes to get a space-rated model to the ISS in the next few years to validate performance in space.

Picture pr0n:

Lab picture


VASIMR Space Craft Concept

I believe that the spacecraft shown uses nuclear power for propulsion requirements.

Submarine Designers Start Smoking Weed

No Comments

DCNS unveiled this concept, the SMX-24, at Euronavale in Paris.

It’s an all fuel cell concept, displacing about 3500 tons, which makes rather larger than the Diesel-Electric boats, but a rather smaller than most Nuke boats, it’s about the size of an Alfa class submarine.

It’s supposed to have 30 days endurance, whether surfaced or submerged, and it has a cruise motor at the rear of the ship, and sprint motors, as well as fuel tanks and weapons, mounted at the tips of stub “wings”.

This is not the first radical concept from DCNS, they also have the SMX-23, which was shown at last year’s Euronavale, and has since been dubbed, “Andrasta,” a small boat intended for littoral waters, which carries its entire weapons load outside of the pressure hull, so reloads can only be done in port.

IMHO, I think that the SMX-23 is far more likely to see service than the SMX-24.

While there are many different sorts of nastiness carried on board submarines, the idea of carrying large amounts of liquid oxygen and possibly liquid hydrogen, for fuel cell operations makes me profoundly uncomfortable.

Israeli 120mm Mortar Carrier

No Comments

It’s called the CARDOM, and it’s based on the M113 APC.

It includes digital systems to lay the mortar on target in less than 30 seconds from receipt of coordinates, and then can fire with a burst rate of 16 rpm, followed by a sustained rate of 4rpm.

I will simply note that it does everything that the Future Combat Systems NLOS-M (Non-Line-of-Sight Mortar) does in a lighter, and much cheaper package.

This stuff isn’t rocket science, so why is the US military paying rocket science prices?

Fairy Tales are Better Than Having Enough Bullets

No Comments

Well, The Daily Telegraph tells a little tale, titled, “Porsche and VW share row: how Germany got revenge on the hedge fund locusts,” and it is a happy, happy story.

You see the evil trolls, believing that the general downturn in the world economy would adversely impact profit numbers at Volkswagen, had shorted the stock heavily, to the tune of 12% of all shares in the company, but the princess, Porsche had quietly arranged to increase its equity stake in VW from 42.6% to 74.1%.

The German state of Lower Saxony owned 20.1% of the outstanding shares.

Well, 74.1%+20.1% gives you 94.2% of all shares outstanding, and so the short selling trolls had to fill their 12% from the remaining 5.8%, and fell upon each other, bidding VW shares up to unforeseen heights, from €210 to well over €1000, causing billions of dollars in losses for the trolls, and Porsche made a paper profit (they will never realize this money, because they aren’t selling) of £100 billion.

The trolls rent their garments and cried to the king (Bafin, Germany’s financial regulator), but the king would have none of it:

So should we lose any sleep over the fact that hedge funds have lost their shirts, or should we all indulge in a spot of schadenfreude? The answer, as we should know after months of financial turmoil, is that we are all, ultimately, likely to be losers.

The princess, Porsche, manages to trick the trolls, hedge funds, and lives happily ever after.

NRCC Cutting off Money to NY House Races

No Comments

Not enough money, so want to direct it toward races that they have a chance of winning:

The decision to abandon much of the state came after internal party polls showed Republican candidates in at least three once-promising races falling behind their Democratic opponents, a party official briefed on the internal deliberations said.

As a result, Republican leaders are diverting money to candidates in other races in which party officials believe they have a greater chance of success, the official said.

The decision by national Republicans to focus on a smaller group of races underscores the degree to which the party is on the defensive not only in New York but also in New Jersey, Connecticut and many other states. The national party is short on cash and is being forced into the difficult position of deciding where to continue to fight — and where to effectively surrender — as the election enters the final days of campaigning.

I’d say it was a realization that they were throwing good money after bad, but all Republican money is bad money.

Happy dance!

Harry Reid Says Senate Will Refuse to Seat Stevens

No Comments

Let me make it clear, Stevens is an affront to the Senate, and while I find Lieberman to be repellant, they are not an affront to the Senate.

Reid is saying that the Senate will not seat a convicted felon, and I agree. What’s more, I think that he was right to slap down Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI), who chose personal friendship over his obligation as a Senator to protect that institution:

…

In a bluntly worded release from his office, Reid warned that Stevens would not only face an ethics investigation but also expulsion proceedings regardless of his efforts to appeal the convictions.

…

Reid also rebuffed comments made by Sen. Daniel Inouye (Hawaii), one of the chamber’s senior Democrats who had previously endorsed Stevens, and who has reaffirmed that sentiment since his conviction last month.

In a statement released by the Stevens campaign, Inouye argues that his longtime friend will be seated as a Member of the Senate next year if re-elected and that he believes the felony convictions will be overturned.

(emphasis mine)

In the House, they would simply refuse to seat him, but I’m not certain of the finer points of the procedures in the Senate.

Good for Reid, and very bad for Inouye, of whom I have fond memories (I was 11 years old) of from the Senate Watergate hearings.

Another Problem With FCS

No Comments

David Axe notes a potential problem with the NLOS-C (Non Line of Sight-Cannon), the Howitzer variant of the the Future Combat System Manned Ground Vehicles (FCS-MGV) which the Army intends to have replace nearly all existing US armored vehicles.

Specifically, by virtue of the high level of sophistication and automation, the NLOS-C has a crew of only two, as compared to 4 for the current howitzer, the Paladin.

If the future NLOS-C units reduce their manning requirements to fill the minimum number of people needed to operate the systems without considering the need to maintain continuous operations and endure battle losses, the expensive high-speed cannon might be silent when needed because an adequate number of Soldiers are not available to operate it.

A commenter on his blog notes that for for a 6 tube battery, you have 42 men, 4 per paladin, and 3 on each of the 6 ammunition carriers, for a total of 42 men.

For NLOS-C, with automated firing and loading, this is likely down to 24 men, possibly fewer depending on how the army allocates loading vehicles, and the loss of one man on any of these vehicles will likely take that out of action.

With the current setup, the Paladin and its loading vehicles can operate at reduced capacity with short crews. The same is not realistic with a lone crewman operating a vehicle.

Additionally, in a situation like Iraq and Afghanistan, which is still the most likely conflict scenario, it is likely that these troops would not just be assigned to artillery duty, but also to, “non-standard missions, which require the Soldiers to anything from patrols to base security”, which, “demand at least the current number of Soldiers, if not more, to complete such missions.”

It appears that one of the institutional myths present in Pentagon doctrine is that the individual soldier is ruinously expensive, and replacing him/her with technology or private contractors will create a more effective, and more cost effective war fighting force.

The performance of systems and reduced crews, in addition to the performance of mercenaries private contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan, has proven this assumption to be disastrously wrong.

Neat Tech: Gel Fueled Rocket Motor

No Comments

The Germans have developed a gel-fuel rocket motor, and are getting ready to flight test (paid subscription required).

I’ve not worked with the technology, but I did work with someone who did work with liquid propellant artillery, and I imagine that the tech is rather similar.

Basically, it allows for a monopropellant rocket, much like solid fuel rockets, with the ability to easily throttle the motor by varying the flow of the propellant into the combustion chamber.

Additionally, since it’s the consistency of toothpaste, or at least it was in the LP gun, it means that if the tank is punctured, you do not get leakage.

The Bayern–Chemie demonstrator uses a single gas generator designed to support a range of missions. It is used to drive a piston that forces the gelled propellant and, in a bi-propellant mode, oxidizer, into the combustion chamber. The gel passes through a valve to regulate its flow, and then through injectors that effectively turn it into a liquid as it enters the combustion chamber to optimize the burn. The motor will use a pyrotechnic ignition system.

An entirely non-explosive configuration has also been conceived. It would replace the solid propellant gas generator with an air pressure reservoir and the ignition would be triggered through a gas burner.

It’s more complex and bulkier than solid fuel motors, but should have interesting applications where a complex thrust profile is required.

The NASA Clown Show

No Comments

I am, of course referring to NASA’s Ares manned vehicle, which has hit yet another snag.

First, the rocket was not powerful enough, then it threatened to shake its occupants to death, and now it appears that the interface with the tower is such that it could hit or significantly the launch gantry tower (launch drift).

A fix to the launch pad configuration would take over a year and require money not in the budget.

Jeebus, what a clusterf%$#….Guys, it’s not like this is rocket science…Oh, wait…It IS rocket science, isn’t it?

The real lesson from all this is just how much damage was done to NASA by the space shuttle. It’s been hollowed out as an organization.

Why China’s Military May Be a Paper Tiger

No Comments

I’m not sure how I found it, but there is a blog out there, 傻冒儿 Stupid Hat aka ShaMao’er that I check out regularly.

He has some very good insights into China, being of Chinese ancestry, having gone to PRC in the in the 1990s, and now working on issues of US/Chinese trade.

Truth be told, that there is a lot that Chinese and Americans don’t understand about each other, and his posts, roughly biweekly or so, tend to provide a lot of insight through the little things that reflect on culture.

Case in point: a few days ago, he was mused in a post titled Demographic defeat on the capabilities of the Chinese army to manage a protracted struggle.

He wondered whether the long standing one child per family policy may be making the PLA a hollow force:

Basically, my friend’s argument boils down to the fact that in Chinese culture, both traditional and modern, the family name is sacrosanct. It is intolerable for a family to be left without sons to carry on the name and lineage. While there is some semblance of this sentiment in the West as well, I came to appreciate that it is a far more important matter to Chinese than it is to Westerners. That is why people know the story of Marshall Peng. [The possibly apocryphal tale of Chinese army in Korea during the war being mobilized to “Save Private Ryan”] That is why people know some poems that deal with this subject. It is apparently a recurrent tragic theme in Chinese art and culture and is simply intolerable.

So, according to this theory, given the one-child policy that has been in place since the mid-1970’s, a good portion of the Red Army’s rank and file are currently single children. Given the exemptions for some rural people and for ethnic minorities and others some maybe in 2 child families but in any case the fact remains that a very large portion of the Army will be the single male child. In the event of a serious military conflict, this fact would render China unable to wage a protracted and costly struggle. The tearing of the social fabric that the loss of so many male family heirs would entail would break Chinese society and public outrage would end the conflict. Although Nationalism is a very potent force in China that would propel conflict, the decimation of family lines would easily trump it.

Obviously the death of a child in wartime is always a personal tragedy, but he makes an interesting point, which I would like to discuss with my neighbor, who works with Army Intel with a specialization in China and the Chinese language.

Another Lie By Hank Paulson

No Comments

Joe Nocera of the New York Times had a source get him access to a a JPMorgan Chase conference call, and what he heard was disappointing, though not surprising.

It appears that the bank has absolutely no intention to expand lending, even after receiving $25 billion from the Treasury.

Instead, they see their path forward as being more merger and acquisition action:

In point of fact, the dirty little secret of the banking industry is that it has no intention of using the money to make new loans. But this executive was the first insider who’s been indiscreet enough to say it within earshot of a journalist.

(He didn’t mean to, of course, but I obtained the call-in number and listened to a recording.)

“Twenty-five billion dollars is obviously going to help the folks who are struggling more than Chase,” he began. “What we do think it will help us do is perhaps be a little bit more active on the acquisition side or opportunistic side for some banks who are still struggling. And I would not assume that we are done on the acquisition side just because of the Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns mergers. I think there are going to be some great opportunities for us to grow in this environment, and I think we have an opportunity to use that $25 billion in that way and obviously depending on whether recession turns into depression or what happens in the future, you know, we have that as a backstop.”

Read that answer as many times as you want — you are not going to find a single word in there about making loans to help the American economy. On the contrary: at another point in the conference call, the same executive (who I’m not naming because he didn’t know I would be listening in) explained that “loan dollars are down significantly.” He added, “We would think that loan volume will continue to go down as we continue to tighten credit to fully reflect the high cost of pricing on the loan side.” In other words JPMorgan has no intention of turning on the lending spigot.

It is starting to appear as if one of Treasury’s key rationales for the recapitalization program — namely, that it will cause banks to start lending again — is a fig leaf, Treasury’s version of the weapons of mass destruction.

(emphasis mine)

So Paulson lied to Congress, and he’s not leaning on banks to make loans again.

When Mr. Nocera says, “I don’t know about you, but I’m starting to feel as if we’ve been sold a bill of goods,” doesn’t know the half of it.

I Got My First Check from Google™ Adsense

No Comments

OK, it’s not really a check, I went with electronic funds transfer.

It’s ad revenue, and let me note that I do not endorse, and sometimes I mock, the ads that show up, so click if you through, you do so at your own risk.

I would also note that I am not attempting to induce you to click the ads that you would otherwise not be inclined to click. Advertisers do not appreciate fraud.

If there is any virtue that I bring to this endeavor, it is that I don’t harbor much in the way delusions of adequacy.

I hit $107.24 at the end of September, I just saw the EFT on the 27th..

Hmmmm…That’s $107.24 for 5857 posts over 17 months, or about 1.83 ¢/post… …Damn……A newspaper publisher would love me, but it makes me feel depressed.

I know, if I divide by the number of worthwhile posts…..That’s about $33.41 a post, which is reassuring, in a self deluding way.

You get a payment each time your balance breaks $100.

This payment I am spending on my anniversary dinner with my wife, which is delayed for lack of babysitting, once again proving that marriage is the single most expensive way ever devised to get laid.

I promise to have a beer at dinner, since I kind of sort of promised:

As to where the proceeds go, and at the rate I’m going I’ll get my first check around 2011, they will go to things like beer (or Slivovitz) for me, or taking my wife out to dinner.

And as much as I like Slivovitz, it really does not go with a good quality meal.