Year: 2008

So Long and Thanks for All the Fish

Andrew Lahde managed a hedge fund that returned 866% by shorting the subprime collapse.

Well, he just quit and shut down his fund, and his letter of resignation is a doozy:

Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.

There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.

I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.

So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don’t worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer’s company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job.

I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life — where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management — with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.

On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government. Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man’s interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft’s near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken.

Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won’t see it included in BP’s, “Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions,” television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM’s similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country? Ah, the female. The evil female plant — marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let’s stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self-sufficient.

With that I say good-bye and good luck.

All the best,

Andrew Lahde

Someone needs to give this guy Hank Paulson’s job.

I approve of the bit about hemp too.

Turn on, tune in, drop out.

Eated*

High Desert Federal Credit Union, taken over yesterday.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

High Desert Federal Credit Union Placed Into Conservatorship
High Desert Federal Credit Union is Open and Operating, Member Accounts are Safe and Federally Insured

October 16, 2008, Alexandria, Va. — The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) has assumed control of the operations of High Desert Federal Credit Union headquartered in Apple Valley, California. The Federal Credit Union Act authorizes the NCUA Board to appoint itself conservator when necessary to conserve the assets of a federally insured credit union, protect members’ interests or protect the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund.

Service continues uninterrupted at High Desert Federal Credit Union and members are free to make deposits, access funds, make loan payments and use share drafts. While the credit union was placed into conservatorship because of a declining financial condition, the decision to conserve a credit union enables the institution to continue normal operations with expert management in place.

Member accounts are insured to at least $250,000 while IRA and KEOGH retirement accounts are separately insured up to $250,000 under coverage provided by the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund, a federal fund backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government. Members with questions about their insurance coverage can contact NCUA’s Consumer Assistance Center at 800-755-1030 Monday through Friday between 8:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. (EDT).

High Desert Federal Credit Union was originally chartered in 1951 and today serves those who live, work, or worship in San Bernardino County, California. The credit union has $149 million in assets and serves over 13,000 members.

The National Credit Union Administration is the independent federal agency that charters and supervises federal credit unions. NCUA, with the backing of the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, operates the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund, insuring the deposits of 89 million account holders in all federal credit unions and the vast majority of state-chartered credit unions. NCUA is funded by credit unions, not tax dollars.

The following links to a document for members being posted on the High Desert Federal Credit Union website concerning the conservatorship, http://www.hdfcu.org.

-NCUA-

*I ripped off this term from Atrios.

Signs of the Apocalypse: ECB Drops Inflation as Priority

We now have a report that the European Central Bank, the entity that serves in the role held by the Federal Reserve in the Euro Zone, has decided to set aside all inflation concerns for the moment:

The European Central Bank’s main task is to keep inflation down. But over the past month, it has thrown caution to the wind in trying to prevent financial system and integrated economy of Europe from falling apart.

When you consider the fact that the charter of the ECB was only to deal with inflation, because of German experiences with hyperinflation in the 1920s (wheelbarrows of cash for a loaf of bread).

Unlike the Fed, the ECB has no mandate to maintain stable employment….It’s only role is to keep inflation low, and they are freaking out.

An Interesting Take on MRAP’s in Afghanistan

One of the things in big demand in Iraq were Mine Resistant Ambushed Protected vehicles (MRAP) to deal with road side bombs.

Well it appears that the experience with these vehicles in Afghanistan has been far less positive than in Iraq:

During my recent embed with Marines in Afghanistan’s Helmand Province, the number one gear complaint was the MRAP: it was too wide for most roads, and the top-heavy vehicles were prone to rollover.

Iraq is, after all, a fairly flat country with an excellent road system, and Afghanistan is probably the opposite of this.

Given the high wheel loads and the top heavy nature of these vehicles this is to be expected.

MRAPs are not just a counterinsurgency specific system, they are a “counterinsurgency with good roads specific” system.

Just How Dirty Was Tony Blair?

Because we already know that Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Al Saudr, known as “Bandar Bush” for his close ties to the Bush Crime Family, is unbelievably dirty. He took around £1 billion in commissions to “facilitate” the military sales in question.

Tony Blair shut down the investigations into bribes around the Al-Yamamah arms sales to the house of Saud in response to threats from that nation, and now the OECD has released a blistering critique of the behavior of the British government at that time for Blair’s shutting down that investigation.

Maybe Bush and Blair can share a cell.

RAND Gets Paid to Support Bloated Defense Budgets

In looking at the Rand study, I neglected part of the bigger picture, that they are to a large degree paid by the Department of Defense to provide data supporting larger defense budgets.

Thus their study on the F-22 and F-35 showing that China would do them like a drunk sorority sister was part of a policy of pumping up the Chinese threat in order to justify larger budgets:

A new RAND study suggests U.S. air power in the Pacific would be inadequate to thwart a Chinese attack on Taiwan in 2020. The study, entitled “Air Combat Past, Present and Future,” by John Stillion and Scott Perdue, says China’s anti-access arms and strategy could deny the U.S. the “ability to operate efficiently from nearby bases or seas.”

I think that some of the problems, particularly with a defense procurement system that is as dysfunctional as the Bush family, are real, but the intended audience of this is Congressional appropriations committee.

It’s not a call for military reform, it’s a call for more of the same.

It Looks Like the USAF and the JSF in Particular, Are In For Some Heat

The Rand corporation, which a few weeks ago said that the 4th generation fighters would club the F-35 Lightning II like a baby seal, is now saying that the USAF’s reliance on extremely high tech cutting edge aircraft is unlikely to work in a real war, and are failing now:

The Rand and CSIS reports both deliver sharply critical outlooks for the future of US airpower. The first suggests that the superior technology of next-generation US fighters are no match for superior numbers and geographic advantage. The second, entitled America’s Self-Destroying Airpower, concludes failures of strategy and planning have made the US military-industrial complex its own worst enemy.

The reports go on to describe, “widespread breakdowns across the US military’s acquisition system for developing and fielding modern combat aircraft.”

Speaking from my personal experience working on the Army’s Future Combat System, it ain’t limited to aircraft.

At its core is the problem that systems are too damn expensive.

Neither aircraft offers a meaningful increase in performance in current deployments, just added costs.

US Army Aviation Looking for Helo Game Changer

It looks like they are checking out both the, “Piasecki/Boeing X-49 SpeedHawk compound helicopter and the Sikorsky X2 coaxial helicopter,” as an interim measure toward higher performance helicopters, and they are looking at things like the Joint Heavy Lift (JHL) , such as the, “Bell Boeing QuadTiltrotor, a Sikorsky heavylift helicopter concept and the Karem/Lockheed optimum speed tiltrotor,” to carry A-400M sized, or at least larger than C-130 sized, loads.

What is really at the core of a lot of this is that since 1947, when the USAF became a separate branch of the service, and took over fixed wing aviation, they have not been well served, so they are looking toward bringing the capabilities back in house through new helicopter technologies.

Interesting Take on Guided 70mm Rocket

The Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS), which incorporates a laser seeker guidance system.

There is an interesting twist to the guidance package, the APKWS mounts a fixed laser seeker on each wing, as opposed to the traditional gimballed laser seeker in the nose.

It’s certainly mechanically simpler. My guess would be that the deltas between the 4 seekers are used to get a precise aim point with the processor.

It’s called the Distributed Aperture Semi-Active Laser Seeker (DASALS) a good example of using computing power to make a simpler and cheaper device.

Note for the metrically disinclined 70mm= 2.75-inch rocket.

BTW, here is some video pr0n of the system (4m 16s):

Another Project that I Worked On* Has News

The US Marines have just put in orders for 7 more Expeditionary Fighting Vehicles (EFV).

It’s a very ambitious ambitious amphibious vehicle, when I worked on it it was called the Advanced Amphibious Assault Vehicle (AAAV), and it is a very ambitious program, a 35 ton vehicle capable of 40 kts in the water by planing like a speed boat.

In any case, it has hit the trifecta in military contracting, over budget, behind schedule, and having technical shortcomings, and the new protypes are supposed to address.

  • Wiring and corrosion, and water infiltration issues.
  • Insufficient rigidity in the auto-cannon turret leading to feed issues.
  • Instability in water, leading to problems staying on plane.

They are not looking at full rate production starting at 2025.

*Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can’t hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as “technical hit man”, where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.

Boeing Looking at Compound Helicopter Technology for Apache

Boeing is looking at licensing Piasecki Aircraft’s compount helicopter technology for an improved Apache.

It strikes me that this might be a very good marriage of technology.

I’m not sure that it will make much difference on the actual battlefield, the mode would still be pop-up and shoot, but I can see a serious increase in range for deployment or by reducing response time from a base to the station.