meIt turns out that if surgical residents work less than 80 hours a week, then there are fewer complications from the surguries that they perform.
Hoocoodanoed??
Year: 2008
Our Friend the TED Spread
The TED spread is the difference in interest rates between the LIBOR rate, which banks use to lend each other money over night, and the 3 month US Treasury bill.
While interest rates go up and down, generally the TED spread is fairly constant….But not now.
It just hit a record high.
It’s not that the LIBOR has gone up much, but that so many people want T-Bills right now, because they see nothing else as safe, that they have bid down the interest rates on that instrument.
Your Regular Georgia Update
There are rumblings in the Council of Europe about ejecting both Russia and Georgia, which just goes to show what memberships in the Council of Europe are actually worth, seeing as how this was shortly followed by Russia signing treaties with South Ossetia and Abkhazia guaranteeing protection in the event of an attack.
Still Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, the NATO secretary general, has declared that Russia cannot block Georgiaan membership in NATO, which implies that Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has not read the NATO charter, which states that there can be no extant border disputes for a nation to be brought into NATO.
The only way for Georgia to get into NATO at this point would be to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and somehow come to a consensus on what the borders were.
American Psychological Association Votes to Prohibit Helping Torture
The depressing part is that the vote was far closer than it should have been:
The vote, 8,792 to 6,157 in a mail-in balloting concluded Monday, may help to settle a long debate within the profession over the ethics of such work. Psychologists have helped military and C.I.A. interrogators evaluate detainees, plan questioning strategy and judge its psychological costs. The association’s ethics code, while condemning a list of coercive techniques adopted in the Bush administration’s antiterrorism campaign, has allowed some consultation “for national security-related purposes.”
The referendum, first posted on the Internet as a petition in May, prohibits psychologists from working in settings where “persons are held outside of, or in violation of, either International Law (e.g., the U.N. Convention Against Torture and the Geneva Conventions) or the U.S. Constitution, where appropriate,” unless they represent a detainee or an independent third party. The association’s bylaws require that it institute the policy at the next annual meeting, in August 2009.
And in the Financial Collapse Race, WaMu is Coming up on the Right
Well it appears that Washington Mutual is trying to find someone to buy them, and their large institutional investors have have agreed to waive a stock dilution clause, which, along with reports that US Regulators are helping them look for a buyer does not bode well for the company.
In any case, it appears that Citi has given the deal a pass.
Meanwhile, in an excercise of remarkably good journalism, Matthew Garrahan of the Financial Times went to the bank, and saw that people are queuing up to get their money out.
Dead bank walking.
Livni Wins Kadima Leadership Election
I really don’t think that her victory in a tight race to replace Olmert as head of the Kadima party will amount to much.
Kadima was very much the party of Ariel Sharon, who is gone, and I would not surprised to see them in 3rd place next election. I peg Benyamin, “The Craziest Motherf%$#er in the Middle East,” Netanyahu winning it.
Then again, my knowledge of Israeli politics is neither broad nor deep, that way madness lies.
Economics Update
Again, as this seems, this is only the so called little stuff, because there is a lot of big stuff again
I’ve been firmly in the recession camp of the, “Is it recession yet,” dispute, and the the Leading Economic Indicators falling again reinforces that notion, though the fact that the Philadelphia Fed Factory Index rose runs counter to that, but as it is the first rise in 10 months, I put that one in the outlier category.
Meanwhile, the weekly, and this week affected by hurricanes, new filings for unemployment rose to 455K and housing starts fell to a 17 year low, even as mortgage rates continue to fall.
Of course, not too many people can get the loans these days, because all the money is fleeing to treasuries.
Gas prices tick higher – Sep. 17, 2008
Housing Starts Plummet to 17-Year Low in August – Economy * US * News * Story – CNBC.com
In energy, eased off of a bit, as did gasoline for the first time in 9 days, as the panicking over Hurrican Ike moderated.
Finally, I just want to say that Tom Toles is a bloody genius:
Money Market Funds Freeze
This is why money is fleeing into treasuries because stuff that is supposed to be as good as cash is freexing up, and people cannot get their money.
So we had a Bank of New York Mellon Corp institutional money market fund just fell below $1/share, meaning you can’t get all your money out, and the $15 billion Putnam Prime Money Market Fund money market fund just shut down, because of “redemption pressures”, i.e. a run on the bank.
If that weren’t scary enough, The Reserve’s Primary Fund is also below par, and includes retail as well as institutional investors:
Reserve Primary has both institutional and retail accounts. “This appears to be the first case where a retail investor will lose money in a money market fund.” said Peter Crane, president of market research firm Crane Data in Westborough, Mass., though he called the situation “an anomaly.”
My investment advice: Buy stocks in safes, because people won’t be trusting banks much longer.
Got Schwag?
Went to a Career Fair down in Greenbelt today.
I really hate these things, but I went, handed out my resume, and got Schwag, free handouts, from potential employers, mostly pens, though a TLA (three letter acronym) government agency had a combined tape measure, level, and pen on a belt clip.
Now Palin is Now Plagiarizing Her Lies
Remember when political operatives maintained that Sarah Palin’s teleprompter broke and that she had to “wing it”?
Remember, that reports watching the speech, who were in a position to see the teleprompter, and saw that she was reading from a fully working teleprompter, and they could actually read it as she was talking, and that she followed the directions, such as adding emphasis at underlined texts, and pausing when the instruction “pause” was there.
It appears that someone was feeding Neanderbloggers and Drudge a load of crap
Well, now, apparently having run out of her own lies, Palin now feels compelled to use someone else’s lies:
At a fundraiser in Canton, Ohio, this evening, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin had an interesting description of her speech to the Republican convention.
“There Ohio was right out in front, right in front of me,” Palin said. “The teleprompter got messed up, I couldn’t follow it, and I just decided I’d just talk to the people in front of me. It was Ohio.”
It really is pathetic when a Republican runs out of lies to tell.
On the bright side for Ms. Palin, I do believe that it is a sign of the coming “Rapture”, which she has been waiting for with baited breath.
It’s Definitely the Weird Season
You may recall Vito Fossella, who dropped out of his race for reelection after he was busted for driving drunk from his wife to his mistress, both of whom have borne him children.
Well, the Republicans selected Francis H. Powers, whose son Francis M. Powers was running against him on the Libertarian ticket.
And then Francis H. Powers died.
Well, it now looks like Vito Fossella is considering re-entering the race.
The political gods are smoking some serious dope in Staten Island.
Sarah Palin Hates Rape Victims
In a new twist of Troopergate, the McCain campaign is saying that Palin fired public safety commissioner Walt Monegan because he was “insubordinate” over budget issues:
On May 7 of this year, Randy Ruaro, the governor’s deputy chief of staff, complained in an e-mail to Rehfeld, the budget director, that Monegan’s department “is constantly going off the reservation.”
“The last straw” leading up to Monegan’s firing, Van Flein wrote, was Monegan’s planned trip to Washington, D.C., to seek funding for a new, multimillion-dollar sexual assault initiative the governor hadn’t yet approved.
So, not only did she sign off regarding charging rape victims for rape kits, she is now saying that fired her public security director because he was looking for money to help rape victims.
Remember, Alaska has the highest per capita rape rate in the nation, and it appears that Palin is determined to punish the victims.
This is repugnant.
1000 Words, McCain/Palin
A Very Good Read on the Economy
Titled The End of Leverage. Money quote:
An enormous hoax has been perpetrated on global financial markets during the past 10 years. An American economy based on opening containers from China and selling the contents at Wal-Mart, or trading houses back and forth, provides scant profitability. Where the underlying profitability of the American economy was poor, financial engineering managed to transform thin profits into apparently fat ones through the magic of leverage.
This paragraph illustrates why I am such a bear.
In 1929, the US was an energy exporter, and the most robust manufacturer in the world.
Today, it’s all arbitrage with other people’s money….We have nothing left to fall back on.
Go read it.
Borat Economics
Felix Salmon of Condé Nast notes:
It’s not just hedge funds, either, which could end up being the vector by which crisis is spread. It could be a big insurance company, or it could be a series of failures of small and medium-sized banks. Or it could come out of left field entirely: the “shadow banking system” is now so big and so global that for all we know a series of bad decisions by a mid-level technocrat in Kazakhstan could precipitate cataclysm across America and the world.
(emphasis mine)
I would note that Borat Sagdiyev hails from, “Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”.
It does raise the point that when markets are deregulated to the degree they are, people will stomp all over the line in an attempt to maximize short term gain, and this raises the possibility that minor actions will have major effects on the economy.
That’s why we need regulation in the first place. Enlightened self interest absent common sense regulation, gives way to unenlightened, and uninformed self interest, which invariably becomes bubbles and fraud.
H/T Kevin Drum for the catch.
Breathalyzer Firm Must Turn Over Source Code
In Arizona, Pima County Superior Court Judge Deborah Bernin has told breathalyzer manufacturer CMI to turn over the source code for their devices to the defendants.
This is more than just a legal ploy to get out of a drunk driving charge,* there actually appear to be some reliability issues with the device in question:
Allegedly inconsistent, odd or inexplicable results involving the Intoxilyzer 8000 have led to legal action in six states (Florida, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Tennessee and New Jersey as well as Arizona). A Florida judge also ordered CMI to hand over the source code running the controversial devices but the firm has refused to comply, earning it $1.2m in fines as a result.
I support this ruling, even without the history of problems. Having a closed box that just says, “guilty” is not acceptable.
*Full disclosure, my mom was killed by a drunk driver when I was 14.
Finally!
It looks like the Obama campaign has concluded that “behold my incredible awsomeness” is not a winning strategy, so they have reversed themselves, and they are telling Democrats that they should “get serious” about contributing money to “independent” groups to attack McCain.
Nice that they finally got a clue that they need a a way to point out the many problems that McCain has with his temperament, ethics, philosophy, intellect, and health.
They are right to go after McCain’s character, after John Sidney McCain has no character, it’s just a pity that they are this late to the game.
Iran Improving Nuke Centerfuges
So says the IAEA, and I’m sure that Darth Cheney is lobbying for an airstrike.
Palin Refuses to Cooperate with Investigation
They are claiming that the investigation approved by a unanimous bipartisan vote of the Alaska Senate is too political…Though the announcement came from the McCain Campaign, not the governor’s office.
I gotta check if Lieberman is showing up again on the Intrade Prediction Markets:
Ukrainian Government Coalition Collapses
It appears that President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko* have a major difference of opinion regarding foreign policy.
It appears Yushchenko is natavist Ukrainian nationalist bellicose nut, and Tymoshenko merely hates the Russians with a white hot passion, so she doesn’t want to start shooting at Russians today, so the President thinks the PM is some sort of traitor.
*Why can’t news happen in places where I can spell the damn names.