Year: 2008

I Cannot Believe that I am Quoting Robert “Traitor and Proud of It” Novak

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But he says something that I the punditocracy has studiously avoided saying until now:

In private conversations, Clinton has expressed the view that Obama’s emphasis on Iraq — her Senate vote for it, his against it — defeated her.

While this is blinding clear to everyone else in the world, to the pundits, where being wrong on Iraq is a sign of good judgment, acknowledging this fact is the political reality that dare not speak its name.

I will note that he gets one part wrong: Obama wasn’t in the Senate for the vote.

A Top Obama Fund-Raiser Had Ties to Failed Bank

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Well, it looks like I just beat the Wall Street Journal by 4½ months.

But they have now discovered Penny Pritzker and Superior Bank.

The bank, closed in 2001, basically created the securitization of subprime loans that is at the core of much, though IMNSHO not a majority, of the credit crunch.

And she is now Obama’s national campaign-finance chairwoman.

Well, we’ll be hearing this 24-7 for a while, if just to ignore the latest McCain flip-flops and screw-ups.

Economics Update

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The Leading Economic Indicators have now fallen for the 2nd straight month. It’s down 2.1% year over year, putting it in the 2001 recession category.

In a related matter, it appears that Freddie Mac may be trying to unwind its debt exposure a bit, as we have reports that it will be purchasing less mortgage debt from lenders, making getting a home mortgage more difficult.

Oil is back above $130/bbl, largely on concerns about Iran and Tropical storm Dolly, but gasoline prices continue to fall, it’s now about a nickel down from the record.

The dollar is slightly weaker today, but I think that the delta is more a non-movement than a movement.

For some well predicted hilarity, note that Bank of America profit took a 41% hit, in part because the newest member of their stable, Countrywide Financial, lost $2.3 billion this quarter.

I told you so.

They Have the Tape, Maliki Endorsed the Obama Withdrawal Proposal

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The New York Times reviewed der Speigel’s tape of the Maliki interview, and has pronounced the original statement endorsing Obama’s plan as accurate:

But the interpreter for the interview works for Mr. Maliki’s office, not the magazine. And in an audio recording of Mr. Maliki’s interview that Der Spiegel provided to The New York Times, Mr. Maliki seemed to state a clear affinity for Mr. Obama’s position, bringing it up on his own in an answer to a general question on troop presence.

(emphasis mine)

What’s more, we now have a statement from Ali al-Dabbagh, the Iraqi government spokesman who walked back the statement under pressure from Bush and His Evil Minions™, that having all troops out in 2010 would be a good thing, so they just endorsed Barack Obama’s position again.

Zimbabwe Update

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On the bright side, Mugabe and Tsvangerai have signed an agreement to enter into negotiations.

I’m not optimistic about the outcome, as Mugabe is still engaging in retribution, and just threatened to expropriate “unfriendly” firms.

Even more concerning is that Thabo Mbeki appears to still be the only mediator involved in the process, which seems to be a recipe for an “Epic Fail”.

It’s clear that his clear favoritism toward Mugabe has weakened the SADC, the regional governmental organization, with a number of countries, most notably Zambia and Botswana, breaking with Mbeki’s accommodation of Mugabe.

This Won’t Just Scare You, It Will F&$% You Up For Life

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Nouriel Roubini gives his assessment on the path forward for US banking and investment, and it’s, as is his wont, very negative.

He’s been right on everything so far with his predictions, except that reality has been even more bearish than he is.

That would be my assessment of the latest, because, I think that he underestimates the effect of the eventual stampede towards the exits of foreign investors in general and sovereign wealth funds in particular.

Raptor Ducking this Year’s Red Flag

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Considering the fact that it has been at previous Red Flags, and it has zero role in the so called “War on Terror”, and they could shake one loose for the Farnborough airshow but this year, when the Indian AF will be sending Su-30MKIs to the exercise, David Axe reports that they are too busy to participate.

They are doing their hair, or some such.

I’m certain that they guys who actually fly the F-22 want to see how their likely adversary, advanced derivatives of the Su-27 will perform against them, what sort of tactics would be used, and similar issues, but the guys who fly desks, and are still interested in additional purchases of the white elephant, so they don’t want any losses in exercises, to get in the way of that.

Another Reason to Remember Zeppo Marx

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He founded Marman Products, an aerospace manufacturing firm, which purchased the patent for a new type of hose clamp, now called the Marman Clamp, which found its way onto all sorts high pressure hoses in aerospace, and were particularly useful for turbochargers, an area where the US excelled in WWII.

Additionally, they found their way into space applications, “When John Glenn rode into orbit aboard Friendship 7 in 1962, a six-foot-diameter Marman-type clamp released the capsule from the Atlas rocket, with explosive bolts blasting open the clamp,” and is still widely used today.

RGE – American Un-Beauty: The Crisis of the Suburbian (McMansions and Gas-Guzzling SUVs) Way of Life

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Nouriel Roubini makes a very very good point in his essay American Un-Beauty: The Crisis of the Suburbian (McMansions and Gas-Guzzling SUVs) Way of Life:

The result was that the U.S. invested too much – especially in the last eight years – in building its stock of wasteful larger and larger homes and housing capital and of larger and larger private motor vehicles (whose effect on the productivity of labor is zero) and has not invested enough in the accumulation of productive physical capital (equipment, machinery, etc.) that leads to an increase in the productivity of labor and increases long run economic growth.

Basically, the as a society no longer invests in productivity, it invests in consumption (and I would add arbitrage to the mix), which means that in a world where increasing productivity is the path to greater standards of living, the United States is not even in the game.

McCain is Completely Fr#$@ed

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Well, it appears that in an interview in der Spiegel, Nouri al Maliki, when asked about Obama’s 16 month time frame, replied, “US presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes.”

As Marc Ambinder noted, “Via e-mail, a prominent Republican strategist who occasionally provides advice to the McCain campaign said, simply, ‘We’re f#@$ed.'”

Seriously, John McCain is more than “Iraq Forever”, it’s “Iraq Forever, with permanent military Super-Bases”, and while Maliki’s government has backed off a bit on the statement, there is no way they want those US bases there, and what’s more domestic politics makes it politically untenable for them to want those bases there.

Boeing Pisses Off F-35 Program Executive Officer

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As if USAF Genearals weren’t already Pissy enough, it appears that General Charles Davis is upset about Boeing’s sales pitch for the F-18 E/F.

He’s upset because Boeing is, “predicting further cost overruns and delays for the F-35 program,” and using it as a selling point for the Super Bug.

Seeing as how the JSF has already had a, “50% cost increase and an at least 18-month delay during the first seven years of development,” perhaps the good general should look inward, rather than outward.

Neat Tech: Telescoping Ammunition Rounds….And Beer

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Telescoping rounds have always theoretically been a very useful concept: Put the round and ammunition completely within the case, with the space not taken up by the round being filled with propellant:

The idea is that when the round is fired, the ignition charge kicks the round into the barrel.

The round is more compact shorter, and the full cylindrical shape is packs more efficiently.

The devil has always been in the detail, and people have been working on this for about 30 years, and the folks at BAE Systems have apparently worked out the kinks on a 40mm autocannon:

It feeds through the trunnion, the pivot point for elevation, and then rotates 90 degrees to be inline with the barrel. This means that the feed point never moves relative to the turret, you don’t have to deal with flexible feeds.

In any case, the telescoping round allows more propellant and more explosive charge in the round, so the performance for BAE’s MTIP 2 (Manned Turret Integration Program 2) has a punch equivalent to a 50mm round, but the cannon is about the size of a 30mm cannon.

Pretty neat, and even neater is where they got their feed concepts:

The cylindrical rounds also pack more efficiently and are easier to handle, which is where the brewery comes in: BAE Systems designers visited a local brewery to gather ideas for automated storage systems and conveyors that would be used in the turret’s autoloader.

Beer, it does a cannon good.