When I started predicting a financial meltdown 5 years ago, I didn’t know a CDO, CDS, or MBS from a hole in the wall.

Truth be told, I’m only barely past that now.

What I was predicting was a real-estate crash followed by a recession, followed by a loss of status as a reserve currency, which would drive the dollar down and interest rates up.

So, I was really only right on one thing, the real estate crash, at least for now, which I figure is pretty good for someone with one economics course under his belt.

That being said, the recommendation by Akio Mikuni, president of the Japanese credit ratings agency Mikuni & Co., that Japan should unwind its holding in US Treasuries could be seen as a first step for the rest of the sequence:

The dollar may lose as much as 40 percent of its value to 50 yen or 60 yen from the current spot rate of 90.40 today in Tokyo unless Japan takes “drastic measures” to help bail out the U.S. economy, Mikuni said. Treasury yields, which are near record lows, may fall further without debt relief, making it difficult for the U.S. to borrow elsewhere, Mikuni said.

Interestingly enough, Mikuni is not suggesting flight from the US market, but rather that, “Japan should also invest in U.S. roads and bridges to support personal spending and secure demand for its goods as a global recession crimps trade.”

He’s talking about a Marshall Plan for America.

I’m wondering if this is just one (rather influential) guy spouting off, or the first few steps in a rush to the exits.