Month: January 2009

I Always Had a Soft Spot for This Aircraft

It appears that they are going to be sending the canard equipped F-15 testbed to the boneyard. (Paid subscription required)

Originally called the short-take-off/maneuver-technology demonstration (SMTD) about 20 years ago, the aircraft was originally equipped with F-18 tail derived canards, square thrust vectoring nozzles, and a redesigned landing gear intended for rough field operations.

It demonstrated impressive improvements in STOL peformance and agility.

NASA is currently using it to research its quiet boom supersonic aircraft technology, as they felt the need to test a canard equipped airframe as one of the configurations.

When they are done, it’s going to the boneyard.

My Mouth Writing Checks…..

So, I was at an Society for Creative Anachronism (SCA) event.

The SCA is a medieval living history group, and the event was Day of Dance II & Bardic Bachanal.

It was potluck with dancing and bardic (music and story telling).

At the end of the evening, someone publicly thanked the musicians, and we all applauded, and then I shouted out, “Play Freebird.”

And damned if they did not start to play “Freebird”, on a guitar, a mandolin, a tenor recorder, and a bowed psalter…The lyrics were a filk, rather than the original, but the tune was there.

My life is complete now.

Another Innovation Setback from the Financial Crisis

It looks like Toyota may be making changes to its just in time inventory system as a result of the credit crunch.

They are worried that bankruptcies and liquidations of suppliers may leave them with no parts to make cars with.

The Japanese company may work with more partsmakers and increase inventories to mitigate the effects of a collapse among its U.S. suppliers, at least half of whom also work for Detroit automakers, Goss said. U.S. vehicle sales at a 26-year low have forced GM and Chrysler to seek government aid and left as many as a third of North American component-makers at risk of bankruptcy, according to consulting company Grant Thornton LLP.

(emphasis mine)

Basically, they are going to put up some warehouses and get a few weeks to a few months of parts to handle potential disruptions. This amounts to an abandonment of just-in-time, at least in the short term.

On the bright side, the increase in inventory will provide a small boost to the economy.

When Upper Management Should Be Fired

Here we have a story where Macy’s, Gannett and the New York Times are facing problems servicing their debt.

Why do they have the debt? Because they borrowed money for stock buybacks so as to bump the price of their shares. (The New York times also blew the money on a shiny new headquarters)

They borrowed money for a stock buyback?

I can understand diverting profits to do so, it is an activity similar to paying dividends, but borrowing money to buy back stock?

Seriously, everyone in senior management who touched this decision needs to be fired.

Gaza Update

I guess that the lede here is the deaths of Nizar Rayyan, who appears to be the most senior member of Hamas’ military wing, and Azkariah al-Jamal, leader of their rocket forces.

While al-Jamal was hit in his car, Rayyan was hit at his home, where he was staying with his 4(!) wives and 10 children, who were also killed in the strike.*

I can’t say that I’ll shed a tear over Rayaan or al-Jamal, though the deaths of family members is unfortunate.

Israel is still resisting calls for a truce, and there are increasing indications that Israel is preparing for a ground assault (also here)

In the world of the more surreal aspects of the war, there is a PR campaign between Israel and Hamas being conducted on YouTube, and in the reports of Israeli cell phone warnings to civilians in advance of strikes, we have another report confirming this activity, along with reports that Hamas is sending text message threats.

Again, let me state that I really want to hear the War Nerd’s perspective on all this, because his lack of moral dimension on his commentary provides more military insight.

*Reports are that he refused to go to ground, a stupidity that should be restricted to military leaders, and that he refused to allow his family to go elsewhere, which is wrong, and cowardly, on many levels.

Russia Increasing Test Launches of New SLBM

Because of the most recent test failure of the Bulava SLBM, Russia will be increasing the number of test launches for the missile in 2009.

They had indented to do 3-4 test launches this year, but now they are committing to at least 5 launches.

They have been 5 for 10 on test launches, which is actually better than SLBM tests during the Soviet days, and this indicates a move back to more extensive testing, which I approve.

In reviewing US missile tests, it appears that there is a panic whenever their is a failure, because the test programs here are now based on the idea that everything will be caught in analysis, and that tests should progress without failures.

This does not work, and results in delays and cost escalation.

Fire Michael Griffin

Seriously, the current NASA administrator’s activities with regard to the transition are insubordination.

We now have reports that he is now pimping out his wife to support his continued tenure at NASA by having her send out an email begging people to sign an online petition supporting him.

It gets even better, as it appears that Griffin spent $57,000 to print and bind copies of his speeches, and then sending copies to Obama.

Note that this is in addition to his refusing to cooperate with the Obama transition team.

Of course, even if Michael Griffin weren’t nuts, the fact is that he is doing a lousy job of managing the next generation of NASA missions and vehicles, particularly his beloved Ares I and Ares V launchers, which show every indications of escalating costs and technical problems (like shaking the astronauts to death during launch, which was resolved with a performance hit because of the additional weight).

There are increasing calls for NASA to use the Orion Capsule on an existing launcher, though, in all fairness a study just reported that the early analysis indicates that man-rating a Atlas V or Delta IV would be more expensive than the Ares.

Personally, I’m inclined to doubt this, because the costs of man-rating these systems is a known quantity, while the Ares is still being developed, and costs are likely to escalate.

Also, Griffin’s refusal to provide data on Ares to the transition team (see the refusing to cooperate link) raises concerns that the study was based on data that was cherry picked by Griffin and NASA.

Gates and Murtha Back More Funds For FCS

We have a report that Rep. John Murtha and SecDef Robert Gates are supporting the acceleration of the Future Combat System in order to apply the technologies to Iraq and (particularly) Afghanistan.

What the story appears to be saying is that they want to get the improved communications and sensors capabilities into the hands of soldiers.

While I can see the advantage of this, fundamentally, the subtext here is that this is being suggested as an alternative to boots on the ground, which is a losing proposition.

One of the major problems in US counterinsurgency is that we do not commit enough ground troops, and so, we overuse air assets, which, because of collateral damage, strengthen local support for the insurgency.

Pulling the money out of whiz bang, and out of Air Force combat operations in theater, would be a much more effective use of resources.

Economics Update

Well, the Institute for Supply Management, released its manufacturing index: 32.4 in December, a 18 year low. Europe , Russia, China, and Australia had similar declines in similar indices.

In currencies, the dollar strengthened against both the Euro and Yen, while the Pound continued its slide.

Meanwhile, in energy, oil is above $46/bbl, and retail gasoline prices rose for the 3rd straight day.

An interesting side note to this is that they are adding 12 million to the strategic petroleum reserve, which implies to me that someone there thinks that we are near bottom, and that it is a good time to buy.

People You Hate to Love

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

This man is a nasty piece of work, but you have to admire the shear ballziness that he has exhibited in the past few weeks by appointing Burris to the Senate.

It’s kind of like watching the villains in pro-wrestling, which I did when I was rooming with a wrestling fan. You hate them, but you love them, because they are so much more engaging than the heroes.

Of course, the adult in me realizes that pro-wrestling is really primarily theater, and pro-wrestlers don’t have the power of life and death, as governors do with pardons, or just through the vicissitudes of budget process, which frequently determine who shall live and who shall die.

The Illinois legislature should dump him as soon as possible, and rationally he should never be allowed near the public sphere again, but my yetzer hara* will miss him.

*Yetzer hara is Hebrew for one’s evil inclination, and yetzer hatov is the inclination to do good. Imagine if you will, going to a store, and paying with a $10 bill, and getting change for a $20. When you correct the cashier, it is your yetzer hatov, and when you walk out of the store calling yourself a moron for not keeping the money, that’s your yetzer hara.

Asshole

Paul Krugman is looking for a word that describes a person who, “considers his mild discomfort the equivalent of torture, crippling injury, or death for other people.”

He was referring to Alberto Gonzalez’s suggestion that he’s a “one of the many casualties of the war on terror.”

The first word that popped into my mind is the title.

I’m sure that the Germans have a word for it though, since they invented the word Schadenfreude.

One commenter on Krugman’s post references Hannah Arendt’s, “Banality of Evil,” though.

Mortgage Cram-Downs Back on Legislative Agenda

Well, it looks like cram-downs, the ability of bankruptcy judges to rewrite the terms and the principal in mortgages for primary residences is back on the table. (A copy of the article that does not require registration is here)

They can already do this for rental properties, and for the vacation homes of rich folks, but for your home, it has been prohibited by law since (IIRC), the late 1970s, because it was argued that the mortgage industry was heavily regulated, so cram-downs were unecessary….Yeah…I know.

The problem now is that many of the worst mortgages cannot be modified because they are held by dozens, if not hundreds, of people, any of whom could sue if they did not like the terms of a voluntary readjustment of a mortgage.

Additionally, this gives lenders a real incentive to negotiate in good faith, and allows the bankruptcy judges to move against the insane fees that are charged by some mortgage management companies.