Month: January 2009

This Should Get Interesting

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It appears that now that Bush and His Evil Minions&trade are on their way out, judges are getting rather a bit more aggressive, or maybe the wheels of justice are just grinding slowly, and have caught up with reality, because Judge HenryKennedy Jr. of the US District Court for DC has just told the White House to turn over all computer storage devices in their possession, and to open up their PCs to forensic investigation, in order to support lawsuits involving the Iraq War and the Valeria Plame outing.

The judge wants all the emails.

What’s more, it appears that someone was actually looking for them, because Helen Hong, a lawyer for the DoJ civil division just said that they have found the backup tapes with the emails in question.

It’s always the tapes, isn’t it.

Pass the popcorn.

The 800 Pound Gorilla for the JSF

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It is that any nation operating the aircraft will be shut down in a very short time without direct US support.

As Bill Sweetman notes here, if the JSF progresses as anticipated, it will drive all other competitors out of business. Sometime around 2020, you could see the Typhoon, Gripen, Rafale and F-18 being unsellable, because, like the Italians and the F-104S, the nations using them cannot afford upgrades, because they have to go it alone.

While the Gripen model of using existing systems essentially unmodified in their aircraft might offer the ability to make support and upgrades affordable, there is a very real possibility that there will be no fighter industry left outside of the US/JSF and Russia, but the folks doing this do not have a good track record:

There hasn’t (for example) been one successful stealth warplane program since the F-117. The A-12 and Comanche were cancelled outright. The B-2 cost tens of billions to fix and is so costly to operate that efforts to sell more than 21 jets were unsuccessful. The F-22 works, but the current debate over whether to acquire more than 183 jets is driven to a great extent by the startling cost of maintenance and upgrades. JSF itself is already two and a half years behind the original schedule, and further problems are certainly not out of the question at this stage.

If your track record is Ishtar and Howard the Duck, and you tell me that you’ve got something that beats Gone With The Wind and Star Wars, you are going to have to prove it with more than a PowerPoint, or “trust me, but it’s secret.”

(emphasis mine)

This is something to think about, and it’s my favorite defense procurement quote of the year, but this is not the gorilla that I mentioned.

The 800 lb gorilla is the fact, as Bill Sweetman notes, that any nation adopting the JSF will be completely unable to field those aircraft without active and aggressive support from the US/Lockheed Martin:

The JSF is unique in the degree of integration in its information systems. So far, for example, it has no open-standard transmit datalink, at least in stealth mode. The automated logistics system will continuously transmit operational information back to Fort Worth. Not only is it a coalition-optimized airplane, it’s hard to see how it could be operated at all without direct, constant US support.

He further notes that the JSF will be shipped without a jammer, which will not be an issue for the US, which has EA-6Bs and shortly E/F-18-Gs to provide standoff jamming, but is a real problem for other nations, who do not operated dedicated stand off jammers, and it is nigh impossible for them to retrofit such a system into a tightly integrated airframe…Truth be told, I’m not sure that they could even find power, much less signal to do so.

Finally, the JSF will not communicate with legacy aircraft. The US is planning to handle this with a MADL (the stealthy communications system installed on the JSF) on something like a business jet that will be well behind the combat zone, but again, any other nation operating the plane will not have this capability.

If I were a nation looking at operating the aircraft under these circumstances *cough* Israel *cough*, I’d be very concerned.

Solid-State Laser Programs Advance to High-Power Tests

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HELLADS

Textron “ThinZag”

Hellads In B-1 Bay

Aviation Week had a cover story, and 3 articles on lasers, and it looks like the signs are in that chemical lasers, which has been the next big thing for battlefield applications are on the way out, because they rely on toxic and expensive chemicals that are remarkably unfriendly to battlefield conditions.

One of the issues for solid state lasers has always been that when you have a high power ceramic generating the laser, the cooling tends create thermal shock that can break the material.

The Joint High-Power Solid-State Laser (JHPSSL) program is looking to demonstrate proof of concept models in the next year or so, with outputs in the 100kW, and DARPA is looking at the High-Energy Liquid Laser Area Defense System (Hellads).

For JHPSSL, there are two contractors and technologies, Northrop Grumman, which gangs the output of 8 or more laser modules, and Textron which uses a single module, and boosts the output with “gain modules”. (Textron’s “ThinZag” concept is the 2nd picture)

The goals of both programs now is efficiency, both in terms of gross power-in/power out ratios, and beam quality, which effects beam quality at a distance.

DARPA appears to be ahead in terms of developing a modestly sized laser that can fitted to existing platforms. (bottom picture is a theoretical system in a B-1 Weapons bay)

HELLADS is being developed by General Atomics, and the concept is described as a “liquid laser”, where the amplification disks are immersed in a coolant to avoid thermal shock issues.

Further, the DARPA is developing with Raytheon a electronically scanned optical array under a separate program, where they are electronically steering the fiber optic inputs from multiple lasers (7 lasers are shown being combined in the top picture).

Because the USAF Thinks That There No Other Needs But Them

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So the boys in blue, despite officially eschewing a supersonic aircraft for their Next Generation Bomber, and canceling the Blackswift hypersonic demonstrator, are still looking for something that flies faster than Mach 1 and carries bombs. (paid subscription required)

If you’re confused, that’s what happens when you look at Air Force procurement programs recently. As Bill Sweetman notes, when talking about USAF procurement, “If your track record is Ishtar and Howard the Duck, and you tell me that you’ve got something that beats Gone With The Wind and Star Wars, you are going to have to prove it with more than a PowerPoint, or ‘trust me, but it’s secret.’“

They are looking at a tailless supersonic design, which would achieve the requisite broadband stealth, only, no one has gotten a tailless design to fly at supersonic speeds.

Basically, they are looking at advanced applications of fluidics for both the serpentine air inlets and the control systems.

Considering the drains of Iraq, Afghanistan, and now the US economy, and the complete lack of utility on the highest tech desires of the USAF, they have to smoking something pretty powerful.

Matt Taibbi is a National Treasure

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And his devastating take-down of New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman is one of many jewels that drip from his mouth.

A sample:

My initial answer to that is that Friedman’s language choices over the years have been highly revealing: When a man who thinks you need to break a vase to get the water out of it starts arguing that you need to invade a country in order to change the minds of its people, you might want to start paying attention to how his approach to the vase problem worked out.

Brilliant.

On Centrism

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Words I never sought that I would say, but this is a great editorial in the Wall Street Journal.

Thomas Frank calls centrism a “chump’s game”, and notes that the “triangulation” of Bill Clinton and his ilk did nothing but allow the radical right wing to move the “center” further right.

Mr. Frank is right, and here is my favorite bit:

And centrism’s achievements? Well, there’s Nafta, which proved Democrats could stand up to labor. There’s the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act. There’s the Iraq war resolution, approved by numerous Democrats in brave defiance of their party’s left. Triumphs all.

Histories of conservatism’s rise, on the other hand, often emphasize that movement’s adherence to principle regardless of changing public attitudes. Conservatives pressed laissez-faire through good times and bad, soldiering on even in years when suggesting that America was a “center-right nation” would have made one an instant laughingstock.

Giving the Fed What For

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An exchange between freshman Congressman Alan Grayson and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, where the distinguished gentleman from Florida points out the Fed is spending around $4000.00 (actually, it total, it’s closer to $20,000.00 at this point when other programs are rolled in) of taxpayer money for every man, woman, and child in the US, and refusing to provide details.

The Fed is completely out of control, and has gone native, and believes that the financial industry is the economy, and Grayson shows just how corrupt the whole process has become in this exchange.

H/T The Washington Independent.

Coleman (Mostly) Loses on Timeline for Challenge

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Coleman was proposing something like 5 mini trials extending over something like 8 weeks, and the Minnesota Election Court has gone with something more expedited.

The trial will start Jan 26, assuming that Franken’s motion to dismiss is not accepted on the 21st.

Length is indeterminate. A strict 15 day limit on the trial, which Franken wanted, was about the only time that they went with Coleman, so there is no hard deadline.

Pulse Detonation Engines Move Ahead in Hypersonic Race to Mach 4

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One of the problem with the hypersonic scram jet is that it does not work well at speeds lower than about Mach 4 or so, and a turbojet pretty much runs out of steam at about Mach 3, and even then it gets big and heavy and complex, as evidenced by the size and weight of the bypass turbofans in the SR-71 (bottom pic), and it looks like DARPA is has put the pulse detonation engines (PDE) at the head of a list to bridge this gap in its Vulcan program. (paid subscription required) (top picture)

Similar in concept, though much different in execution to the pulse jet that powered the V-1 “Buzzbomb”, it is increasingly being looked at as a way to bridge the gap between turbojet and scramjet.

Additionally, it is being examined as a possible replacement for both combustors in turbine engines, and for afterburners behind turbine engines.

One thing that I’m not clear on here though is why you need the turbine engine in the first place with a PDE, as they do operate at 0 airspeed, as evidenced by the (very noisy) flight of a Long-EZ powered by a such an engine about 11 months ago.

Speaking of the Cluster F%$# that is the A400M Development Program

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It looks like EADS is asking for a further 2 year delay in service entry for the A400M military transport.

At the same time, a report says that the A400m is over weight and under-performing:

The FTD cited sources which said the current version of the A400M can carry only 29-30 tons of material, instead of an expected 32 tons, and that it is itself 12 tons overweight.

Nice to know that bloated under-performers in defense acquisition is not a special American monopoly.

If You Need to Incorporate Stealth into a Transport Aircraft

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Then maybe you have a problem like lack of air superiority over your airfields, which pretty much means “game over”.

This makes me wonder why the USAF is soliciting proposals from Boeing and Northrop-Grumman for stealthy STOL airlifters.

My guess is that this is a way to get additional money for a successor to the B-2 bomber through a back door, because there ain’t any money in the front door.

Obviously, this is technically challenging, if just because tailless designs do not lend themselves to short take-off and landing and the slow speeds that this entails.

The basic requirement, the ability to operate from a a 1,500-2,000ft landing strip and cruise at Mach 0.80 is doable, and has been done, even at the size that they are looking at, a 35T payload, roughly equivalent to an EADS A400M, which comes close to these goals…Or it will when it finally flies.

Clearly, the two proposals differ, with Boeing going with a tail, and they will rely heavily on things like blown flaps, and perhaps some application of the Coandă effect.


Boeing Concept


Northrop-Grumman Concept


STOL Technologies from Northrop-Grumman

Thielert Aero-Diesel Manufacturer Back In Black

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Honestly, I am pleasantly surprised by the news that Thielert Aircraft Engines’ insolvency administrator has announced a (probably small) profit, and is looking for a buyer.

You can find a rundown of my previous stuff here, but here is the nickel tour:

  • Thielert makes a revolutionary aircraft turbo diesel based on a Mercedes block, which is fuel efficient and runs on AvJet fuel, which is easier to find, and cheaper, than AvGas.
  • Thielert gets a number of deals to supply engines in the aftermarket, to OEMs (particularly Diamond), and for UAVs.
  • Thielert gets into financial problems.
    • This appears to be 1 part fraud, and 1 part that the engine, particularly the reduction gearing to the prop needs more maintenance than anticipated, and Thielert is getting hammered by guarantee costs.
  • The founder is kicked out, and the company is placed under an insolvency administrator (in the US, we would call this Chapter 11).
  • The administrator cancels guarantee support and jacks up the price (gouges really) on spares, forcing most of the operators to ground their aircraft.
  • Diamond tells Thielert to go Cheney themselves, and starts to develop an aero-diesel based on the same engine block.
    • Diamond also takes a major hit in their business too, as they had used the Thielert engine extensively, and certification of a new engine is a non-trivial process.

What has happened over the past few months apparently is that the insolvency administrator, Bruno Kübler, has come to understand the market, reduced spares prices, and started to supply a limited amount of support under its old guarantees.

Additionally, they are looking to sell the engine in the future without the extensive guarantee, so as to avoid this problem in the future….It’s a change in business model, with the majority of future profits being in engine support, rather than the initial sale.

It’s still a promising technology, though I am still dubious of Thielert’s continued existence.

Is Peace Even Possible in the Middle East?

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Jeffrey Goldberg says that Israel can’t make Peace with Hamas.

That their philosophy and theology will simply never allow them to make a real peace.

He relates his discussions with Nizar Rayyan, in which the now dead Hamas leader says that the first priority is to “deal with” Arabs looking for peace deals (i.e. Fatah), calls Jews the descendants of apes and pigs, denies the Holocaust, and says that God is opposed to a religious state in that part of the world.

Let’s be clear there can be no deal with Mr. Rayyan. With him, the point was mooted when he was killed.

On the larger point, the question is, “Can you negotiate a peace with people who believe as he does?”

The answer is clearly no.

Neither can you bomb them until they give up. They are, to quote Elwood Blues, “On a mission from God.”

You can’t kill them all, and any attempt to do so is likely to create more radicals.

What you can do, however, is destroy them as a viable political force. I’m not sure how, but you can reduce people like this to the soap box ranters you see now and again in places like the Boston Common, and that should be the strategy.

That being said, I have no idea how to do that, particularly because today the soap box ranters are a rather potent political force in the territories.

Gaza Update

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We are getting conflicting reports on how much longer the fighting will go on, with reports of 2 more weeks, that it may end tonight, and that Hamas has rejected the cease fire terms.

We’ll know its over when its over, I guess.

Part of the reason for this is that
there appears to be a rift between Hamas in Gaza and their nominal leaders in Syria, with the latter taking a much harder line….Which is easier for them, because they, and their neighbors are not in the cross fire.

On a tactical level, we now have reports of ubiquitous recording of events on video by the IDF, on the theory that this will be an effective defense against accusations of war crimes.

This means, at the very least, that there are elements in the IDF who believe that they are following טוהר נשק, because people who believe that they are committing war crimes don’t video tape it these days.

Additionally, we have reports of extremely close coordination between UAV’s and ground forces.

This is because they are under the direct control Army, and not AF units, which is something that the US Army should note, because the USAF wants direct control of anything larger than a seagull.

I would also note that IDF armor is doing very well, unlike in Lebanon in 2006.

I think that this is because there is no longer an Air Force man as chief of staff, and so they have moved away from the US “long range PGM” model, and back to maneuver warfare.

It doesn’t hurt that their APCs are the heaviest in the world (contra the direction of the US Army with its light weight FCS manned vehicles), and that the Merkava has a number of systems, remote machine guns and a 60mm mortar, that are very effective in urban combat too.

Finally, we have a video of a trip to a missile factory.

I will note that you can hear children in background at one point, and whether this is evidence of human shield use, or simply an artifact of living with 1.5 million people in a space the size of Washington, DC, is left to the reader.

H/T Danger Room for the vid.

Also, I will post on Jeffrey Goldberg’s NY Times OP/ED later.