Economics Update

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So we have the new, official jobs report, Oh My God!!!

The unemployment rate went up to 7.6%, and 598,000 jobs were cut, the most since 1974, and it happened across all sectors.

Barry Ritholtz looks at the number in more detail, and finds (excerpting):

  • Total job losses since the recession started in December 2007: 3.6 million;
  • Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 4.1 million;
  • For the first time since records began in 1939, there were three consecutive months of 500k + job losses;
  • Household survey showed a record 1.24 million job plunge (Since data began in 1950)
  • The employment-population ratio fell to 60.5%, down from 62.7% at the beginning of the recession, — the lowest rate since 1986.
  • Unemployment rate: 16-year high (1992);
  • The 3.5 million job loss since January 2008 is the largest 12-month decline since the government started compiling those figures in 1939;
  • U-6 Marginally attached and involuntary part-time workers: 13.9% last month — up almost five percent;
  • The employment-to-population ratio was the lowest since 1986.

Except for the jobs report, it’s a slow news day, which is kind of like saying, “Apart from that Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?

Then again, I expect at least one bank closing shortly after I shut down for Shabbos, because Friday is bank regulator seizure day (cue Prince Spaghetti Day ad).

The good news is that it looks like the SEC and Treasury are denying any plans of suspending mark to market.

Going back to mark to model would be like pouring gasoline on a the bonfire of the fraudulent.

One odd thing here is that the Federal Reserve appears to be walking away from expanding its Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending Facility (TALF) program, a sh%$ pile for cash givaway lending program, to include consumer credit derived instruments.

Not sure what is going on here, but it would seem to me that this might be one of the better ways to throw money at the problem.

Meanwhile, oil fell on the jobs reports, and the dollar was mixed, up against the Yen, down vs the Euro, and flat vs. the Sterling.

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