I think that he got played by the military. There are likely to be over 100K troops until year’s end, because General Ray Odierno wants them there for elections, and over 50K for a stabilization force until the 2nd half of 2010.
I think that Obama did not want to deal with the “death by 1000 leaks,” that Clinton saw on gays in the military, and felt that some senior army officials, particularly Ordierno, who have already pretty much said that they would ignore the status of forces agreement.
This should have been fixed in 1993, by Bill Clinton firing Colin Powell for insubordination, and could be fixed now by firing Ordierno if he steps out of line.
Truman’s precedent with MacArthur stands, and should be enforced.
In the short run, Obama needs to start pulling out the extensive infrastructure at the “superbases,” such as maintenance and communications, so as to reduce the military utility of these facilities for use outside of Iraq, as quickly as possible.