Month: March 2009

Nouriel Roubini Gives Good Rant

Hoocoodanode? Normally, he is calm and analytical, but when asked about Madoff, he really gives what for:

Here is my answer fleshed out in full:

Americans lived in a Made-off and Ponzi bubble economy for a decade or even longer. Madoff is the mirror of the American economy and of its overleveraged agents: a house of cards of leverage over leverage by households, financial firms and corporations that has now gone bust.

When you put zero down on your home and you thus have no equity in your home your leverage is literally infinite and you are playing a Ponzi game.

And the bank that lent you with zero down, a NINJA (no income, no jobs and assets) liar loan that was interest only for a while with negative amortization and an initial teaser rate was also playing a Ponzi game.

….

Go read the rest.

It’s one answer to how the economy is different from the machinations of Bernie Madoff: it isn’t.

It’s thought provoking.

Economics Update


Your Scary Pic of the Day, Courtesy of Calculated Risk

So, today is the day for new jobless claims, and U.S. jobless claims rose by 9000 to 654,000, which is not a new record, though the continuing claims number of 5.317 million, which was a new record.

Well, we are seeing more in the way of rate cuts world wide, with the European Central Bank approaching 0% interest rates by stealth, using their deposit rate now at ½%, as opposed to their benchmark rate, now at 1½%, by lending like a madman, and the the Swiss central bank cut its benchmark rate to ¼% in an effort to keep the Franc from appreciating against other currencies, so the zero interest rate contagion is spreading.

And the consumer is still on vacation with retail sales falling by 0.1% in February, and it’s seen as a sign of progress, because the experts were expecting a fall of 0.5%.

It’s no wonder that retail sales are falling, as U.S. household net worth fell at a record pace in 4Q 2008, $5.1 trillion for the quarter and $11.2 trillion for the year, and this was accompanied by the first drop, at a 2% annual rate, in household debt ever.

These numbers are not surprising. With house prices down, and a foreclosures rising 30% year over year, and 6% month to month in February, it just makes sense to economize.

Interestingly enough, even though foreclosures continue to increase, mortgage rates fell this week, largely on the expectation of little in the way of inflationary pressures because of the weak economy.

We also have two bits of WTF today, with yet another bank, this time Bank of America saying that it made a profit in the first two months of the year, while not counting its losses in the big sh&^pile.

Additionally, S&P has downgraded General Electric from AAA to AA+, which, until the last year or so, I always thought was a sign of the economic apocalypse.

In energy, oil is up. largely on the retail sales report.

In currency, the dollar is up, largely on the aforementioned Swiss rate cuts.

Now This is Reassuring

Seymour Hersh is now saying that Bush and His Evil Minions turned the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) into a personal assassination squad reporting directly to Dick Cheney. (see also here and here):

Under President Bush’s authority, they’ve been going into countries, not talking to the ambassador or the CIA station chief, and finding people on a list and executing them and leaving. That’s been going on, in the name of all of us.

Seeing as how it was Dick Cheney calling the shots, let’s be glad that it wasn’t unleashed against inconvenient people in the USA.

Or, at least, I don’t think so. I’ve always wondered about J. Clifford Baxter.

New York Times Makes an Affirmative Action Hire

I haven’t really read Ross Douthat, who has now been hired to write a regular column for the New York Times.

That being said, it is clear that he was not hired because they believed that he was the best writer and thinker out there; he was hired to fill a slot for conservatives, and he was the best person that they could find to fill that check off box.

I will note that the Times doesn’t do a great job with its regular columnists anyway, what with Maureen Dowd, who covers the issues of our day as if she is a middle schooler critiquing another shoes, and Tom Friedman, who seems to get his insights entirely in airports and taxicabs from people who talk like a person whose wife is worth (or was worth) about a billion dollars.

What a Little Whiner

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase:

Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., said the U.S. can rescue its banking system by the end of the year if officials start cooperating and stop the “vilification” of corporate America.

“If we act like a dysfunctional family and we don’t finish these things and we’re forever debating them, I think this will go on for several years,” Dimon, 52, said at a conference hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington. “It’s completely up to us at this point.”

Awww…The poor liddle baby…..Someone hurt his feelings.

If I had the power sir, you would be in jail awaiting trial right now, because you are more dangerous than Osama bin Laden.

Not only did you loot this country, but you continue to do so.

Unencumbered by the Thought Process

The EU is continuing to push finance deregulation in third world:

While EU and other global leaders have talked tough about re-regulating the financial sector in the wake of the economic crisis, they remain committed to pushing through banking deregulation in the developing world via trade deals.

This strategy is undermining poverty reduction in these countries and is reproducing the same type of circumstances that led to the crisis in the first place, warns a new report published on Wednesday (11 March) by the World Development Movement, an UK-based anti-poverty NGO.

Someone needs to whack these jokers upside the head with a clue stick.

What I Had for Dinner

Well, Sharon* got some Tuna steaks on sale at at the grocery store, and we cooked them. It was dead nuts simple, I dusted it with my curry spice rub, let it sit for about 10 minutes for the spices to mingle, and then seared each side for about 5 minutes in a hot pan with a bit of olive oil, and served.

There was just a bit of pink in the middle, and it turned out very nicely.

*Love of my life, light of the cosmos, she who must be obeyed, my wife.

Someone Who Gets it

David Leonhardt, who notes in the New York Times that the banks took outrageous and stupid risks because they expected to be bailed out by the taxpayer:

….

The economists were George Akerlof, who would later win a Nobel Prize, and Paul Romer, the renowned expert on economic growth. In the paper, they argued that several financial crises in the 1980s, like the Texas real estate bust, had been the result of private investors taking advantage of the government. The investors had borrowed huge amounts of money, made big profits when times were good and then left the government holding the bag for their eventual (and predictable) losses.

In a word, the investors looted. Someone trying to make an honest profit, Professors Akerlof and Romer said, would have operated in a completely different manner. The investors displayed a “total disregard for even the most basic principles of lending,” failing to verify standard information about their borrowers or, in some cases, even to ask for that information.

The investors “acted as if future losses were somebody else’s problem,” the economists wrote. “They were right.”

On Tuesday morning in Washington, Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, gave a speech that read like a sad coda to the “Looting” paper. Because the government is unwilling to let big, interconnected financial firms fail — and because people at those firms knew it — they engaged in what Mr. Bernanke called “excessive risk-taking.” To prevent such problems in the future, he called for tougher regulation.

….

Do you remember the mea culpa that Alan Greenspan, Mr. Bernanke’s predecessor, delivered on Capitol Hill last fall? He said that he was “in a state of shocked disbelief” that “the self-interest” of Wall Street bankers hadn’t prevented this mess.

He shouldn’t have been. The looting theory explains why his laissez-faire theory didn’t hold up. The bankers were acting in their self-interest, after all.

….

In effect, the bankers had siphoned off this bailout money in advance, years before the government had spent it.

About the only thing that I disagree about is that he does not suggest real and deliberate criminality.

Go Read.

UN Discovers that Its War On Drugs Fueled the Drug Cartels

Anti-narcotics drive fuelled drug cartels: U.N. | International | Reuters:

A U.N. anti-narcotics drive has backfired in part by making drug cartels so rich they can bribe their way through West Africa and Central America, U.N. crime agency chief Antonio Maria Costa said on Wednesday.

The 10-year “war on drugs” campaign had cut drug output and the number of users, he said. But it had a “dramatic unintended consequence” — profit-gorged trafficking gangs destabilizing nations already plagued by poverty, joblessness and HIV-AIDS.

Hoocoodanode?

You mean that increasingly draconian strategies against illegal drugs increases the profit margin for the suppliers who survive, which gets them more sophistication, and influence, and increases corruption and violence in society?

They could have just asked Al Capone’s ghost, and he would have told them that.

Neel Kashkari Shut the Hell Up!

It appears that the last member of the association of bald white incompetents, Neel “Cash & Carry” Kashkari is warning against excessive “micromanagement” of banks by the government.

Kashkari, the Assistant Treasury Secretary for Financial Stabilization, and a hold over from Hank Paulson, because no one wants to be tarred with the brush of Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner, has decided that it would be a bad thing for US officials to 2nd guess senior bank executives.

Because, you know, they’ve already done such a bang up job in managing their banks…..not!

Greenspan: Fed Didn’t Cause the Housing Bubble

So, Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan is trying to claim that while he was Fed Chairman, he did nothing to create the housing bubble.

Well, even if it weren’t a Wall Street Journal OP/ED, we would know that this was a lie.

He lowered rates to the bone, endorsed things like CDOs, but he is claiming that since mortgage rates (lending long) drove the home price bubble, and not the Fed Funds rate (lending short), it’s just not his fault.

Except, of course, the good monetarist he is, he always claimed that the Fed Funds rate did have an effect on home mortgage rates, and the low short term rates drove people to real-estate backed securities in search of a decent return.

Furthermore, this had a worldwide effect, because it forced other central banks to lower rates, because otherwise their currencies would have appreciated against the $US, killing their exports.

Then there was his endorsement of ARMs, because housing never went down, and his steadfast refusal to “take away the punch bowl” in bubble markets, because he believed that the markets were perfect….A policy which the Federal Reserve has now explicitly disavowed.

How stupid does he think we are?

I don’t have a degree in economics, and even I get that he is simply spouting gibberish in an attempt to obfuscate his leading role in creating an economy of bubbles, arbitrage, and criminal fraud.

Seriously, did Alan Greenspan get his PhD from a cereal box or something?

Oh…I forgot….He DID get his PhD from the back of a cereal box.

What is Shinseki Thinking?

It appears that Eric Shinseki is considering billing veterans’ private insurance companies for the treatment of service related injuries.

I don’t think that this is an attempt to bill veterans, just extract more money from their insurers, but it’s a very bad idea:

  • It means that they will fight their insurance companies over billing.
  • It raises the costs of employers of hiring disabled vets.
  • It is the first step on a slippery slope to privatizing VA care.

Put a stake through its heart now.